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QMM_researchgateQuasi-Markov model for extrapolating observed discrete distributions

QMM_researchgateQuasi-Markov model for extrapolating observed discrete distributions

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Published by Agnieszka M-w
We propose a quasi-Markov model of population dynamics calibrated to repeated cross-sectional data. While sharing the attractive features of classic Markov models, it avoids the practical problems associated with longitudinal data, and, due to its focus on population transfer rates between discrete states, is particularly well adapted to microsimulation modelling. We propose an information theory based method of calculating model estimation error, which is free of distributional assumptions and respects trends in the data. We also describe how to apply it to the simulation of ageing cohorts. The model has been applied to BMI trends in UK population, producing reasonable extrapolations and confidence bounds.
We propose a quasi-Markov model of population dynamics calibrated to repeated cross-sectional data. While sharing the attractive features of classic Markov models, it avoids the practical problems associated with longitudinal data, and, due to its focus on population transfer rates between discrete states, is particularly well adapted to microsimulation modelling. We propose an information theory based method of calculating model estimation error, which is free of distributional assumptions and respects trends in the data. We also describe how to apply it to the simulation of ageing cohorts. The model has been applied to BMI trends in UK population, producing reasonable extrapolations and confidence bounds.

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Published by: Agnieszka M-w on Mar 26, 2014
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03/26/2014

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