Catch Lance Zierlein from 6 to 10 am daily,alongside John Granato. Listen to John Harris onthe Sean and John show, with Sean Pendergastshow 3 to 7 PM daily. www.1560thegame.com
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The Haves and the Have Nots
Yes, I know it’s not the 2007 Draft, but it’s the latest draft logo I had toillustrate my point. And, that is? Well, the discrepancy between thehaves and the have nots is as distinct as it’s ever been in the NFL. It’s a long way back for these teams, but if there’s any hope, just check out theBroncos. The 6
-
0 Broncos...that’s what I meant. The NFL weekend hasa Super Bowl IX rematch and a Michael Crabtree sighting. Good stuff.
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NFL SECTION BY
LANCE ZIERLEIN
WEEK 7
San Francisco (3-2) vs. Houston (3-3)
Texans - 23 vs. 49ers - 17
October 25, 2009 - FOX 12 PM CST
t2009 Ranking106.2 ypg
-
16thRun Offense77.3 ypg
-
30th 160.8 ypg
-
28thPass Offense292.2 ypg
-
3rd22.4 ppg
-
17thScoring Offense23.8 ppg
-
12th 88.6 ypg
-
7thRun Defense125.0 ypg
-
24th 234.0 ypg
-
20thPass Defense226.8 ypg
-
19th 19.6 ppg
-
13thScoring Defense22.8 ppg
-
22nd+4
-
Tied 8thTO Margin+2
-
11th
When the 49ers have the ball...
The Niners offense is pretty simple in terms of what they want to do. They don't want to trick you too much, they just want to hit you in the mouth with their running game and then hit a big play here or there. With Michael Crabtree on the field, the Niners might have another big play threat or they might havea rookie who is nowhere near ready to make a big impact on the game yet. The key isn't Crabtree anyway. The key inthis one is the return of RB Frank Gore. While Gore was out, backup RB Coffee simply wasn't able to get therunning game going and the Niners suffered because of it. I'm sure the Niners will look at beating the Texans the way the Texans look at beating the Colts which is to run the ball, control the clock and try and hit the QB.
When the Texans have the ball...
The Texans simply aren't going to give up on the running game no matter how sub
-
parit is has become because they have to make people respectthe potential of the running game in order to set up the play
-
action passing and the middle of the field. Matt Schaub isputting up MVP
-
caliber numbers right now, but the Texansare going to be facing a 3
-
4 front that has given them tons of trouble in the past. The Texans pass protection has to
beready because there will be a ton of different blitz looks thatthe Niners will show so the newcomers at guard will have tobe on their assignments because if they get confused, Schaubis going to get hit and hit hard. The Texans passing game willexploit the Niners secondary if Schaub is given time.
Conclusion:
I know that the Texans haven't been very consistent at home so far but there is no doubt that theirdefense is improving and the Niners are offensively challenged.
If the Texans don't fall apart on defense against therun, this one should go the Texans way but isn't this the same thing I was saying when the Texans played the Jaguars?
Vegas Line: HOU -3 / 44
2009 ATS Record
4
-
1
-
0
2009 Over/Under
2
-
3
-
0
Last 5 Games
10/11 L, Atlanta 10
-
4510/4 W, St. Louis 35
-
0 9/27 L, @ Minnesota 24
-
27 9/20 W, Seattle 23
-
10 9/13 W, @ Arizona 20
-
16
2009 ATS Record
4
-
2
-
0
2009 Over/Under
2
-
4
-
0
Last 5 Games
10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28
-
1710/11 L, @ Arizona 21
-
2810/4 W, Oakland 29
-
6 9/27 L, Jacksonville 24
-
31 9/20 W, @ Tennessee 34
-
31
Last Meeting: San Francisco - 20 vs. Houston - 17 (1/1/2006)
Fantasy Report
Michael Crabtree
, Niners WR
-
If you pickedup Crabtree this week and you are looking forhim to
do something this week, don't hold yourbreath.
He's still green.
Steve Slaton
, Texans RB
- More than likely youget more of the same with Slaton which is belowaverage rushing yards and a decent amount of receiving yards.
Atlanta (4-1) vs. Dallas (3-2)
Cowboys - 28 vs. Falcons - 21
October 25, 2009 - FOX 3:15 PM CST
t2009 Ranking98.6 ypg
-
24thRun Offense161.0 ypg
-
3rd229.2 ypg
-
15thPass Offense259.4 ypg
-
9th 24.6 ppg
-
10thScoring Offense24.4 ppg
-
11th 118.2 ypg
-
23rdRun Defense106.4 ypg
-
17th 241.0 ypg
-
21stPass Defense251.4 ypg
-
26th 15.4 ppg
-
4thScoring Defense19.6 ppg
-
12th +5
-
7thTO Margin
-
4
-
23rd
When the Falcons have the ball...
The Falcons knew they had a much tougher schedule this year when it came torush defenses but I'm not sure they were prepared for just how much tougher it was going to this year. Michael Turner is averaging just 3.5 ypc and the Cowboys are decent against the run so while the Falcons will try and get Turner going, don't for one second think that the Falcons won't immediately attack the Cowboys pass defense. TheBoys are giving up over 250 yards per game and the Falcons multi
-
faceted attack can attack high or low and as long asthe Falcons get protection against the likes of DeMarcus Ware, they have a chance to put up some pretty strong numbers. The Falcons offense hasn't been quite as potent as you might think, but the potential is there.
When the Cowboys have the ball...
The Cowboysoffense and running game in particular have been pretty consistent but despite averaging almost 100 yards more per game than the Falcons, the Cowboys are averaging just 24.4ppg to Atlanta's 24.6 so obviously efficiency isn't their greatest attribute. The Falcons defense is very much a "bend
but don't break" entity considering that they are 4thin the league in points allowed but 24th in total yards allowed. The Cowboys are going to do what they do which is run itsome and try and take some shots down the field and therereally isn't any reason to believe that they won't move it onthe Falcons as long as Romo keeps his head on straight. If Dallas doesn't turn it over a ton, they are going to havesuccess on offense.
Conclusion:
After two very good wins against the Niners and the Bears, it is time for the Falcons to crash backdown to reailty in this spot. Their defense has been bending a little too much and the Cowboys are coming off off a bye week so this one will be tough for the Falcons to win on the road.
Vegas Line: DAL -4 / 47.5
2009 ATS Record
4
-
1
-
0
2009 Over/Under
3
-
2
-
0
Last 5 Games
10/18 W, Chicago 21
-
1410/11 W, @ San Fran. 45
-
10 9/27 L, @ New Eng. 10
-
26 9/20 W, Carolina 28
-
20 9/13 W, Miami 19
-
7
2009 ATS Record
2
-
3
-
0
2009 Over/Under
3
-
2
-
0
Last 5 Games
10/11 W, @ KC 26
-
2010/4 L, @ Denver 10
-
17 9/28 W, Carolina 21
-
7 9/20 L, NY Giants 31
-
33 9/13 W, @ Tampa Bay 34
-
21
Last Meeting: Dallas - 38 vs. Atlanta - 28 (12/16/2006)
Fantasy Report
Matt Ryan
, Falcons QB
-
The Cowboyssecondary
is there for the taking and with theFalcons on
the road and possibly playing frombehind, Ryan is a good option.
Roy Williams
, Cowboys WR
- If you have a goodoption as a second QB, you can look in thatdirection, but I think Brady should be a decentplay this week.
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