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Assessing extinction-risk of endangered plants using species distribution models: a case study of habitat depletion caused by the spread of greenhouses (ARTÍCULO)

Assessing extinction-risk of endangered plants using species distribution models: a case study of habitat depletion caused by the spread of greenhouses (ARTÍCULO)

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Published by Blas M. Benito
Método para localizar poblaciones de plantas amenazadas por la construcción de invernaderos en el que se aplican modelos de distribución de especies.
Método para localizar poblaciones de plantas amenazadas por la construcción de invernaderos en el que se aplican modelos de distribución de especies.

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Published by: Blas M. Benito on Oct 25, 2009
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11/10/2012

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ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessing extinction-risk of endangered plants usingspecies distribution models: a case study of habitatdepletion caused by the spread of greenhouses
Blas M. Benito
Æ
M. Montserrat Martı´nez-Ortega
Æ
Luz M. Mun ˜ oz
Æ
Juan Lorite
Æ
Julio Pen ˜ as
Received: 20 November 2007/Accepted: 19 February 2009
Ó
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract
The species distribution models (SDMs) are useful tools for investigating rareand endangered species as well as the environmental variables affecting them. In thispaper, we propose the application of SDMs to assess the extinction-risk of plant species inrelation to the spread of greenhouses in a Mediterranean landscape, where habitat depletionis one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. For this purpose, presence records of themodel species (
 Linaria nigricans
, a endemic and threatened species) and the greenhouses,a dataset of environmental variables, and different only presence-based modelling algo-rithms (Bioclim, Domain, GARP, MaxEnt and ENFA) were used to build SDMs for
L.nigricans
as well as for greenhouses. To evaluate the models a modified approach of thearea-under-curve ROC was applied. Combining the most accurate models, we generated anextinction-risk model of 
L. nigricans
populations, which enabled us to assess the sus-tainability of the most threatened populations. Our results show that is possible to modelgreenhouses spreading as a ‘‘biological invasion’’. The procedure explained and used inthis work is quite novel, and offers an objective spatial criterion intended for the man-agement of natural resources and for the conservation of the biodiversity in areasthreatened by habitat depletion processes as particular as greenhouses expansion.
Keywords
Greenhouses
Á
Habitat fragmentation and depletion
Á
Linaria nigricans
Á
Mediterranean landscape
Á
South-eastern Spain
Á
Threatened species
Introduction
Land use change is among the main cause of threat for the biodiversity due to the seriousconsequences that it is provoking in natural habitats (habitat depletion, fragmentation, and
B. M. Benito (
&
)
Á
J. Lorite
Á
J. Pen˜asDepartment of Botany, Sciences Faculty, Plant Conservation Unit, University of Granada,Avda Fuentenueva s/n., 18071 Granada, Spaine-mail: blasbp@ugr.esM. M. Martı´nez-Ortega
Á
L. M. Mun˜ozDepartment of Botany, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
 123
Biodivers ConservDOI 10.1007/s10531-009-9604-8
 
destruction) (Soule´1991; Sala et al.2000). In a context of global change, one priority is to identify areas with high extinction-risk (Arau´ jo and Williams2000), in order to model thepotential responses of the species to incoming changes (Buckland and Elston1993), and toapply that knowledge in conservation policies.The development of the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and its use in researchis improving the design of powerful spatial-analysis methods directly applicable to theconservation of biodiversity and land management. These methods include the speciesdistribution models (SDMs), which can predict the potential distribution of the habitatsuitable for a targeted species by analysing relationships between presence records andpredictor variables stored as GIS coverages (Guisan and Zimmermann2000). SDMs aresuccessfully applied to locate new populations of rare and threatened species (e.g. Guisanet al.2006), to select areas that guarantee the persistence of endangered species (e.g.Arau´ jo and Williams2000), to predict spatial patterns of biological invasions (e.g. Thuilleret al.2005a,b; Ward2007), to identify locations with high extinction-risk (e.g. Arau ´ joet al.2002) and to evaluate potential effects of global change in species distribution(Thuiller et al.2005a,b). In fact, SDMs can be used in plant conservation planning to introduce objective and quantitative criteria for decision making.In 1999 an estimated 682,000 ha were occupied by greenhouses throughout the world,especially in China (380,000 ha), followed by Mediterranean countries (161,300 ha inFrance Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco, and Algeria (Takakura and Fang2002). Thespreading of greenhouses usually implies habitat depletion and an overexploitation of scarce natural resources such as water or soil. In fact, the spread of greenhouses is the mainthreat against the outstanding biodiversity in south-eastern Iberian peninsula (Martı´nez-Ferna´ndez and Esteve2004), and it frequently signifies the occupation of natural habitatsof european interest (Habitat Directive of the European Union, Anon1992), mainlyaffecting communities of 
Periploca, Ziziphus
, and
Maytenus
(Mota et al.1996), whichharbour protected species (Anon2003), and many other plant species, like
Androcymbiumgramineum, Narcissus tortifolius
,
Euzomodendron bourgaeanum, Cynomorium coccineum
or
Linaria nigricans.
The aim of this work is to propose a methodology based on SDMs capable of predicting,in spatial terms, the extinction-risk associated to natural populations of species, in relationto the spread of greenhouses. The case study is the spread of greenhouses in south-easternIberian peninsula, and the model species chosen is
L. nigricans
, a rare endemic andthreatened species of this area. For this aim, we have applied different species distributionmodels to select the most accurate ones; also, we have combined the best models to builtthe extinction-risk model to evaluate the sustainability of the populations of 
L. nigricans
inrelation to greenhouses spreading. This is intended as a framework that could lead to anobjective spatial criterion for improving conservation and management plans.
Materials and methods
Study area, model species and greenhousesThe study area is located in south-eastern Iberian peninsula (Fig.1) (2.9–1.6
°
W and 36.6–37.5
°
N). The climate is Mediterranean, with average annual rainfall of 200–300 mm(frequently torrential), high evapotranspiration, and mean annual temperatures of 16–17
°
C,with warm, dry summers and temperate winters (Mota et al.2004). The landscape isdominated by a mosaic of shrubs and chamaephyte plant communities (with
Ziziphus lotus,
Biodivers Conserv
 123
 
Thymus
spp
., Helianthemum
spp.,
Rosmarinus
spp
.,
etc.), xerophytic grasslands with largepatches of 
Stipa tenacissima
(called ‘‘espartales
)
 ,
and varied communities of ephemeralannual plants (Mota et al
.
2003).As model species we have selected
L. nigricans,
because it characterizes diversecommunities included in the Habitat Directive of the European Union (92/43/CEE; ‘‘2230
 Malcolmietalia
dune grasslands’’ and ‘‘6120 Xeric sand calcareous grasslands’’, priorityhabitat, Anon1992), and is threatened by the spreading of greenhouses.
Linaria nigricans
is a short-lived therophyte, restricted to four localities of south-eastern Spain (Fig.1,Campohermoso, Tabernas, Pulpı´, and Salinas). It occupies flat areas with arid and sandysoils, and does not tolerate alterations in its habitat (e.g. compaction or changes in the soilproperties). The plant has been catalogued as ‘‘Endangered’’ (EN) (Cabezudo et al.2005)and is protected by the ‘‘Law of Flora and Fauna’’ of Andalusia (Anon2003).
Linarianigricans
inhabits annual grasslands with a great number of accompanying mesogean taxa,such as
Leysera leyseroides, Ifloga spicata, Ammochloa palaestina, Lobularia lybica,Filago
spp
.
, and other species with narrow biogeographical ranges (e.g.
Silene littorea
subsp.
adscendens
, also a locally endemic species
; Asphodelus tenuifolius; Eryngium ili-cifolium; Ononis sicula
).For more than 30 years, greenhouses have been spreading in SE Iberian peninsula, andare currently occupying a vast area of the plains near the coastline. This spread has beenencouraged in recent years by the construction of new infrastructures intended to guaranteethe water supply for the intensive agriculture in the region. In our framework, to model thepotential distribution of greenhouses, they were considered to behave in a way comparableto a biological species in terms of topographical, climatic, and geographical requirements,
Fig. 1
Situation of the study area and geographical context. Marked localities in Tabernas, Pul´,Campohermoso and Cabo de Gata, supports known populations of 
.
nigricans
Biodivers Conserv
 123

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