Application of fuzzy rule-based modeling technique to regionaldrought
, I. Bogardi
*, L. Duckstein
Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University, Pazmany setany 1, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, W359 Nebraska Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0531, USA
Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, 19, avenue du Maine, 75732 Paris Cedex 15, France
Received 12 January 1999; accepted 19 August 1999
Fuzzy rule-based modeling is applied to the prediction of regional droughts (characterized by the modiﬁed Palmer index,PMDI)usingtwo forcing inputs, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and large scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs)ina typical Great Plains state, Nebraska. Although, there is signiﬁcant relationship between simultaneous monthly CP, laggedSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI)and PMDIin Nebraska, the weakness of the correlations, the dependence between CP and SOIand the relatively short data set limit the applicability of statistical modeling for prediction. Due to the above difﬁculties, a fuzzyrule-based approach is presented to predict PMDI from monthly frequencies of daily CP types and lagged prior SOIs. The fuzzyrules are deﬁned and calibrated using a subset called the learning set of the observed time series of premises and PMDIresponse. Then, another subset, the validation set is used to check how the application of fuzzy rules reproduces the observedPMDI. In all its eight climate divisions and Nebraska itself, the fuzzy rule-based technique using the joint forcing of CP andSOI, is able to learn the high variability and persistence of PMDI and results in almost perfect reproduction of the empiricalfrequency distributions.
1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Fuzzy rule-based modeling; Drought; ENSO; Circulation pattern; Palmer index
The purpose of this paper is to develop andapply fuzzy rule-based modeling to the prediction of regional droughts from the joint use of two forcinginputs or premises, namely El Nino/Southern Oscilla-tion (ENSO) and large scale atmospheric circulationpatterns (CPs) applied to the case study of a typicalGreat Plains state, Nebraska (Fig. 1).Drought is a normal part of the Great Plainsclimate, and it is different from other natural hazardsthat affect the region. Drought is a slow-onset, insi-dious hazard that is often well established before it isrecognized as a threat, taking months or years todevelop. Economic, environmental, and socialimpacts of drought can be enormous (WGA (1996)).The Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA, 1995) estimates annual drought losses inthe US to be US$6–8 billion. The 1987–89 droughtacross much of the US totaled an estimated US$39.4billion in direct and indirect losses, which is still the
Journal of Hydrology 224 (1999) 100–1140022-1694/99/$ - see front matter
1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.PII: S0022-1694(99)00131-6www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol* Corresponding author. Tel:
email@example.com (R. Pongracz),firstname.lastname@example.org (I. Bogardi),email@example.com (L. Duckstein)