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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
26 October 2009
Issue No. 204
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
RIO (RIOKZF) MINI Investment Buy
– Setting up for 2010
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Trading Buy
– Result a catalyst
Banks (NAB,ANZ,WBC) Sector Update
– Pre-results form guide
Round Up Corner Strategy – Acquisition candidates
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200+46.6 4859.4 +1.0%
u.c to +55 $6.7 bn(H)
SPI - yesterday+33.0 4852.0 +0.7%
+32 to +56 23,612(L)
Dow Jones-109.19972.2-1.1% 
-149 to +28
HighS&P 500-13.31079.6-1.2% 
-17 to +3
AvgNasdaq-10.82154.5-0.5% 
-16 to +25
HighFTSE+35.2 5242.6 +0.7%
u.c to +92
Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-0.6980.50-0.8%+16.7% Gold Spot-4.701055.40-0.4%+4.7% Nickel (LME)-7.03858.34-0.8%+6.3% Aluminium (LME)+0.29 87.88 +0.3% +5.3%Copper (LME)+2.66 300.54 +0.9% +8.5%Zinc (LME)+0.99 101.95 +1.0% +19.8%Silver+0.03 17.69 +0.1% +5.1%Sugar unch22.48unch+4.3%
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.47 -3.2%14.42 15.63
-45.7 c 
RIO (UK)+65.5 p +2.2% £30.01 53.11
-1439.1 c 
BLT (BHP UK)+36.0 p +2.0% £18.320 32.43
-777.4 c 
BXB (UK)+16.0 p +4.0% £4.165 7.37
+9.2 c
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)-1.01 -1.4%72.97 39.55
-64.6 c 
AWC (US)-0.29 -4.2%6.66 1.81
-5.5 c 
TLS (US)-0.37 -2.5%14.53 3.15
-4.0 c 
ANZ (US)-0.55 -2.5%21.60 23.42
-43.3 c 
WBC (US)-0.28 -0.2%124.45 26.98
-31.6 c 
NAB (US)-0.65 -2.3%28.15 30.52
-39.2 c 
LGL (US)-0.35 -1.2%29.54 3.20
-2.7 c 
RMD (US)+0.01 +0.0% 49.67 5.38
-2.5 c 
JHX (US)-0.21 -4.4%4.57 4.72
-9.9 c 
PDN (CAN)-0.37 -2.5%14.53 3.15
-4.0 c 
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
Despite reasonable numbers from some of the Dow bellwethers, there were some clear signs of nerves on Friday. Amexdown despite a win and some profit taking across the growth space doing most of the damage. By the close, the Dow offlows but down 109pts, the S&P down 1.2% and the Nasdaq 0.5% lower.
Financials -
Amex down 5%, the Dow's worst performer and among the bigger pt takers despite 3Q profit and revenueexceeding expectations.
Growth -
In the absence of any economic leads outside of Home Sales, pain was felt across all the Dow's economicbarometers.
Dupont,Alcoa,Boeing,CaterpillarandIBMalldownaround2%andtogetherwithAmexaccountingforhalfthedamageontheday.
 
Eco
- Existing Home Sales for September 5.57mln vs 5.35mln expected and up from a revised 5.09mln in the monthprior. The news not enough to get the homebuilders moving, down 3% on the day.
 
FX/Bonds -
Despite the days flight to safety, bonds were sold off on concern around the timing of the Feds next move onrates, yields up 6.5, 8 and 6bps across the 2,10 and 30yr bonds. Currency moves did reflect the bearish end to the week,the DXY up 0.5c and the Aussie back down toward the 92c level.
Techs -
Mircosoft one of few highlights on Friday, up 5.4% after higher than expected Q1 numbers. For the period netincome of 40cps compares with consensus at 32c. Cost control was also a highlight, down 6.9%.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
TheFTSErose0.7%or35ptsdespiteanunexpectedfallinGDPasstrongcorporateearningsnumbersintheUShelpedsentiment.TheFTSEEurofirst300dropped0.6%,theDAXfell0.4%andtheCACwasoff0.3%.
UK Banks -
Lloydsputon1.5%withtherealestatearmofinsurerLegal&Generalintalkstocherry-picktroubledassetsfromthebankindealsthatcouldgeneratemillionsofpoundsforthelender.HSBCrose1.2%,whileStandardChartered,BarclaysandRBSaddedbetween0.7%and3.5%.
Euro Banks -
PositivenewsfromtheUKbanksliftedthesectoronthecontinent.DeutscheBankekedoutagainof0.3%,Commerzbankwasup0.5%,BNPclimbed2.1%andSocGenadded1.6%.
 
 
Eco -
Britain'seconomyunexpectedlycontractedin3Qthisyear,markingthelongestrecessiononrecord.GDPfell0.4%vsapredictedriseof0.2%.Thepoundtumbledaftertheannouncementwithinvestorsnowbelievingtherewillbenointerestratesrisesforatleastayear.
 
Commodiites Commentary
Miners -
StrongermetalpricesandpositivebrokertalkonChina'sgrowthhelpedthesector.BHProse2%,Riowasup2.2%,Anglojumped4.2%,Xstrataadded3.7%andVedantaended3.15%higherafterabrokerreiterateditsoverweightcall.
Energy -
Despitecrudefallingslightlythesectorheldontorecentgains.Shellrose1.2%despiteabrokerdowngradetohold,BPwasflat,BGGroupadded0.5%butTullowfell0.2%.InEuropetheoilmajorswereweaker.Totalwasoff0.4%,Repsolfell1.3%andStatoilended0.7%lower.
 
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 42pt or 0.87% to 4861. Open at 4818 with a low of 4793 and a high of 4875. Volume 16,990. Overnight the SPItraded down 37pts to 4824.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUSAus SOP PPI
 
USTuesdayAUSUSUS consumer confidence
 
WednesdayAUSRBA Assistant Gov (Financial System) Edey speaks
,
Aus CPI
,
USUS durable goods orders
 
ThursdayAUSAus HIA new home sales
 
USUS new home sales, US GDP
 
FridayAUSUSUS personal income, US personal consumption, US core PCE deflator
 
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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