Russia-Burma Nuclear Intelligence Report-2

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RUSSIA-BURMA NUCLEAR INTELLIGENCE REPORT #2

By Roland WatsonAugust 7, 2008

We have received additional intelligence that expands our last report, and which also provides confirmationfor earlier reports. This intelligence comes from new sources. In summary, as we continue to receiveinformation, the details of the SPDC’s nuclear program are becoming more and more concrete.

Nuclear program objective

In May 2001, at the National Defence College (Rangoon), SPDC Science and Technology Minister UThaung said that Burma would make an effort to possess nuclear weapons by 2020. Once achieved, thiswould make the regime the strongest military power in Southeast Asia; the country would be transformedinto the “Fourth Burman Empire”; and, it would be able to threaten Thailand militarily.This statement reveals the SPDC to be a grave threat to international security and peace. The regime'sannouncement that its new 10 MW reactor is intended for peaceful research purposes is a lie.

Program background

The SPDC’s program to acquire nuclear weapons began in 1990. (At this time the junta was known asSLORC.) Rangoon University Physics Professor U Po Saw was consulted about developing the technology,and also the selection of candidates to become state scholars. The process of honing cadet officers for training in nuclear technology was begun in 1997 with Defense Services Academy Class 42.Prior to 2000, Russian nuclear experts were invited and discussions on building a reactor, its location, andthe training of state scholars, were held.Our sources also tell us that the junta first contacted India to obtain nuclear technology. The country agreedto accept state scholars. However, since India also stipulated that it had to supervise and control theoperation of the reactor, this approach was halted.With the help of China, the SPDC succeeded in reaching its agreement with Russia. In addition, theChinese government has advised the junta that it should try, by various means, to make nuclear weaponsand, if it cannot produce them by its target date of 2020, that it should buy them.In 2003, the regime sent thirty military officers to North Korea to study reactor technology. In 2006, itstarted buying from the North the machinery necessary for reactor construction. The SPDC established itsconnection with North Korea so it would not have to stop the program if its relations with Russia turnedsour.The SPDC sells natural resources to obtain nuclear technology, including for the costs of educating thestate scholars (a new source confirms that there are over 4,600 in Russia alone). We have also learned thatthe resource sales included 20,000 tons of iron ore mined in Ka-thaing Taung, a range in the Hpakan area inKachin State (near the famous jade mines). But, and as has been reported by others, the junta didexperience financial problems in 2005 and its program with Russia was suspended. These difficulties wereovercome, the program was restarted, and the SPDC is now financially secure. (The reason for this changeof fortune is obvious. According to the new U.S. Burma law: “

The Congressional Research Serviceestimates that the Yadana pipeline provides at least $500,000,000 in annual revenue for the BurmeseGovernment

.”)Our new sources further tell us that the SPDC has secretly tried to gain assistance from Iran. This confirmsa relationship that we have previously heard about from other sources.Further, in 2000, Japan started taking scholars for doctoral level studies, to operate a reactor. With the help

of Japan, new departments of nuclear science have been set up at Rangoon University, MandalayUniversity, and the Defense Services Academy.

Training in Russia

In 2001, the first batch of scholars, 150 military officers, was sent to Russia from Tada U Airport onchartered Aeroflot flights.In Russia, the scholars attend a variety of institutes in Moscow and also St.Petersburg, depending on their subjects of study. The schools include:MEPHI – Moscow Engineering Physics InstituteMIET – Moscow Institute of Electronic TechnologyMATI – Moscow Institute of Aviation TechnologyMAI – Moscow Aviation InstituteBMSTU – Bauman Moscow State Technical UniversityMITT – Moscow Institute of Thermal TechnologyMISI – Moscow Civil Engineering InstituteMSMU – Moscow State Mining UniversityMEPHI teaches nuclear science, MIET rocket guidance, MAI aircraft and space subjects, and MATI thetechnology for building rockets to carry satellites. There are also course programs in tunneling, uraniummining, and uranium ore refining.Our new sources confirm that many of the scholars are unhappy. They were forced to go to Russia; their pay is too low; the harsh weather has caused them problems; and the medical care they receive isinadequate. They complained to the Burma Embassy in Moscow, and asked to be sent home. In response,the Directorate of Intelligence sent weekly instructions urging them to complete their work and to fulfill thenational aim (to produce nuclear weapons). At one point former Foreign Minister U Win Aung came in person and told the students to finish their studies. He relayed a message from Vice Chief of Staff MaungAye that anyone who married a Russian woman scientist and then returned to Burma would be rewarded.Also, in 2002, Quartermaster General Win Myint as well as the Navy Chief, Air Chief and TransportMinister went to Russia and arranged for the training of twenty Air Force pilots, who would then take ten purchased MIG 29s back to Burma. They additionally discussed whether Burma should acquire aircraftcarriers and submarines. In July 2002, Science and Technology Minister U Thaung went to Russia andsigned the agreement for the acquisition and construction of the nuclear reactor.

Reactor Location

In our previous report we stated that the site of the reactor is Kyauk Pa Toe (aka Kyauk Pha Htoe), near Tha Beik Kyin. While we do not yet have a confirmation of this, we have received additional informationabout the SPDC’s efforts to keep its location secret.Even the technicians who were trained to build the reactor were not allowed to know its site. In June 2006,there was an information leak, and the officers for the program were called to Naypyidaw and interrogated.This is apparently a reference to the information that was published by Bertil Lintner in a July 2006

AsiaTimes

article, which said that North Korean technicians had been seen at Natmauk, a town to the east of Magwe.We have now learned that a 10-megawatt reactor was being built (or was intended to be built) in MyaingTownship, Magwe Division, and further that it was to use heavy water and, for that reason, that it would beable to produce plutonium.This leaves us with two plausible reactor sites, Myaing Township and Kyauk Pa Toe. One scenario thatcould explain this discrepancy is that the SPDC’s original plan was to locate the reactor in Magwe, but that

this subsequently changed, perhaps because, as

The Irrawaddy

reported, it is an earthquake zone. In anycase, while Magwe remains a possibility, there is also a strong source identification for Tha Beik Kyin.

Uranium activities

We have received additional information about Burma’s uranium deposits, which helps confirm our prior reports. Uranium ore that is commercially exploitable exists in the Kyauk Pyon, Paungpyin and Kyauk Sinareas. In addition, uranium prospecting has occurred or is underway in southern Tenasserim, Karenni State(the Loikaw area), Moehnyin in Kachin State, and in areas west of Taunggyi.Uranium milling is in progress at Tha Beik Kyin. Further, and as we speculated in our last report, we havereceived information that a program to enrich milled uranium (yellowcake) to U-235 has also begun at ThaBeik Kyin. The entire operation at this location is now referred to as Nuclear Battalion-1.We have also had confirmed that in early 2006, yellowcake was sold to North Korea. In July 2006, theregime purchased from North Korea nuclear activation equipment for use in uranium enrichment and alsofor the production of plutonium. While we do not know the precise nature of this equipment, there is a good probability, given the other information, that it includes centrifuges. At least one North Korean nuclear expert is now working in Tha Beik Kyin.We further have confirmation that a related Military Research Center was built in the Setkhya range (akaSa Kyin) near Lun Kyaw, which area is also reportedly a Nuclear Battalion, and that there is a CivilianResearch Center in Kyaukse Township. There are also Russian nuclear experts in Pyin U Lwin, who giverefresher courses to the state scholars after they return home.

Military modernization and Napyidaw defense

The SPDC has made a great effort to purchase major weapons systems and to modernize its armed forces.We can now report the following significant acquisitions.In 2002, the junta bought 122 mm howitzers from North Korea. From China Northern IndustriesCorporation, it bought fifteen large radars for air force use. These radars were installed at Mingaladon Air Force base; Namsan Air Force base; the radar base at the top of Nat-ye-gan Mountain in Ann Township;Hainggyi Island radar base; and Koko Island radar base. Moreover, for sea and coastal security the regimeinstalled naval-use radars, on Pyin Wain, Take Soon and Ta-pin-hmaw islands in the Irrawaddy Division;on Kyun Thaya, Mayu, Man-aung and Nantha islands in Arakan State; and on eight islands in TenasserimDivision. In 2002, it also bought, from Russia, ten MIG-29s; as well as, in February 2005, missile launchersand trucks; and, in November 2006, 122 mm and 240 mm missiles. Naval officers are enrolled in training courses in India and Russia. In India, they attend a Ship Simulator Course, and in Russia Anti-Ship Firing and Missile courses. From September 2007, the SPDC started to buy twenty-eight anti-ship missile carriers, in batches, and the related missiles. India together with Chinaare also both selling and giving weapons to Burma. In 2007, India gave 76 mm and 75 mm mountain batteries and 120 mm anti-aircraft batteries, for ten anti-aircraft battalions.Before 2000, there were only two artillery divisions in Burma. By 2004, the heavy weapons force had beenexpanded to ten artillery divisions and one rocket division.Since the move of the military headquarters to Pyinmana, fiber optic cables have been used to communicatewith the regional commands. A Wide Area Network (WAN) is used to connect strategic locations includingthe defense perimeter of Naypyidaw, the radar bases in Rangoon Division, the air force bases, the naval bases, etc. In addition, for the defense of Pyinmana, the ten battalions of MOC 6 are posted in the area. Ananti-aircraft battalion is stationed at Taung Nyo in the Pegu Yoma range, another anti-aircraft battalion is tothe east of Wegyi and Thawutti, and a number of anti-aircraft missiles are based in Pyinmana itself. For additional security for Naypyidaw, two armored battalions are stationed between Pyawbwe and Pyinmanatowns, and three artillery battalions and the No. 901 Artillery Operation Command are in the Bawnetgyi-

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