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The weekly briefing, 7 April 2014

The weekly briefing, 7 April 2014

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Published by Open Briefing
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 7 April 2014).
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 7 April 2014).

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Published by: Open Briefing on Apr 07, 2014
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Open Briefing |
1
 
The weekly briefing
| 7 April 2014
 Political and security risk updates
Africa:
Chad commences ithdraal of troops from Central African !epu"lic peacekeeping mission folloing allegations of unpro#oked attack on ci#ilians$
 Americas:
%arth&uake in Chile puts ne president to the test$
Asia and Pacific:
'orth and (outh )orean na#al forces e*change fire$
Europe:
+ensions continue to rise "eteen !ussia and the ,est after anne*ation of Crimea$
Middle East:
+riple "om" attack in %gypt kills to people- including senior police officer$
Polar regions:
Cooperation "eteen !ussian and 'oregian state energy companies to continue despite .kraine crisis$
Africa
Chad commences withdrawal of troops from Central African Republic peacekeeping mission following allegations of unprooked attack on ciilians
On /riday 4 April- Chad commenced the ithdraal of its 0 soldiers from the Central African !epu"lic CA!3 peacekeeping mission in protest against a report "y the .' uman !ights Office that accused regular Chadian soldiers- not part of the peacekeeping mission- of killing 50 ci#ilians and ounding more than 500 during an alleged unpro#oked attack in a croded market in the capital- Bangui- on 26 arch$ (ur#i#ors of the incident stated that a con#oy carrying Chadian soldiers had entered the market area and commenced firing$ Chad8s foreign minister- oussa /aki ahamat- denies the allegations- and has claimed that the soldiers ere reacting to an am"ush "y Christian anti9"alaka militia$ +his is the latest in a string of allegations in#ol#ing Chadian forces in CA!- including accusations that its troops ha#e "een aiding uslim (:l:ka re"els ithin the country$ !eprisal attacks and increasing #iolence ha#e ad#ersely affected the country since the sei;ure of poer "y mainly uslim (:l:ka re"els last year$ Outside o"ser#ers ha#e repeatedly #oiced concerns o#er the risk of genocide- as intercommunal #iolence has spiralled out of control since its onset last <ecem"er$ uman !ights ,atch re#ealed e#idence of massacres in remote #illages in southest CA!- accusing "oth (:l:ka and anti9"alaka of large9scale killings in /e"ruary- "efore the (:l:ka mo#ed eastards$ <espite the recent appointment of a second interim president- Catherine (am"a9Pan;a- there is no effecti#e go#ernment in the CA!- ith anti9"alaka militias increasingly gaining the upper hand$
 
Open Briefing |
!
 +he .nited 'ations- arning of orsening humanitarian conditions and a million displaced persons- is trying to esta"lish safe locations for resettling fleeing uslims$ =n many areas- only a fe uslim communities remain- ith the ma>ority ha#ing already fled to neigh"ouring Chad and Cameroon$ A %uropean .nion mission of 00 troops is e*pected to deploy to CA! ithin the coming days- supporting 2-000 /rench troops already in the country- though the increase in manpoer is no effecti#ely "eing neutralised "y Chad8s ithdraal$
"ther deelopments
 
An eastern #ibyan rebel group has agreed to end its sei$ure of seeral oil%e&porting ports in the Cyrenaica region within the ne&t few days'
 marking progress in an eight9month standoff ith the central go#ernment in +ripoli$ +he group8s leader- ="rahim al9?athran- ho commanded re"el forces against
uammar @addafi in 2011- announced the decision on re"el tele#ision on 2 April$ A central go#ernment delegation is e*pected to #isit the group8s "ase in A>da"iya- situated in northeastern i"ya- to agree on the details$ +alks ith eastern i"yan re"els ere rein#igorated folloing the .( 'a#y8s capture of a tanker that had loaded oil at a re"el port- hich destroyed re"el hopes of "ypassing the central authorities in selling crude oil$ ?ust "efore the announcement on cooperation- the +ripoli go#ernment had released three fighters ho ere a"oard the tanker- in a further effort to "reak a stalemate that has pushed i"ya into a "udget crisis due to dramatically decreased oil production and e*ports$
(ifteen ciilians hae been killed in a suspected )oko *aram suicide attack on a state oil company facility in northern +igeria,
+here as no immediate claim of responsi"ility for the attack on 1 April in Borno state- northeastern 'igeria- "ut gi#en the current go#ernment forces8 campaign against Boko aram- a reprisal attack is likely$ ,hile the 'igerian go#ernment has repeatedly attempted to eaken re"el forces in a military crackdon- the militant group remains the primary security threat to 'igeria and continues to "roaden its range of attacks ithin the country$ A ne strategy to target petroleum infrastructure in Africa8s leading oil producer ould ha#e de#astating conse&uences for the 'igerian economy$
Two weeks ahead of elections' Algerian President Abdela$i$ )outeflika made a rare public appearance on - April to discuss security cooperation in the Maghreb region with ./ /ecretary of /tate 0ohn erry,
 (ince suffering a stroke o#er a year ago- Bouteflika has rarely "een seen in pu"lic- ith his health "eing &uestioned as he prepares to run for a fourth term after 1 years of rule "acked "y the 'ational i"eration /ront /'3$ Opposition parties ha#e called for a "oycott of the election- ith a potential political transition "eing atched closely in %urope- gi#en Algeria8s role as a key gas supplier and an important partner in the fight against militants in the region$
"n the radar
 
 
Muslim ciil society groups hae threatened mass protests
 
in Mombasa' enya'
 o#er the recent assassination of uslim cleric (heikh A"u"akar (hariff$
 
2ncreased security e&pected in 3uinea%)issau
 due to risk of unrest surrounding presidential and legislati#e elections on 15 April$
 
The .+ /ecurity Council will hold consultations on /udan and /outh /udan this week,
 A report "y the .' ission for the !eferendum in ,estern (ahara ='.!(O3 is due on 10 April$
 
Open Briefing |
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Americas
Earth4uake in Chile puts new president to the test
An earth&uake ith a magnitude of $2 struck the northern region of Chile on the morning of 1 April$ +he epicentre of the earth&uake as located in the Pacific Ocean- 100 kilometres northest of the northern city of =&ui&ue$ +he seism triggered landslides- "lackouts- fires and a small tsunami$ (i* people died and more than 600-000 had to seek refuge on higher ground$ =n the hours after the earth&uake- 500 female prisoners escaped from a penitentiary hilst it as "eing e#acuated- around 100 inmates ere then either recaptured or #oluntarily returned to the >ail ith the Chilean army "eing deployed to search for the remainder$ On 2 April- the local authorities cancelled the tsunami alert hile Chiles President ichelle Bachelet declared a state of emergency in the region as 100 riot police ere deployed "y military aircraft to support 500 troops on the ground to pre#ent looting$ (e#eral aftershocks ha#e since "een reported- though not e*ceeding $2 in magnitude$ +he earth&uake pro#ided the first test for the nely9appointed president- ho returned to poer on 11 arch after ser#ing as president from 200910$ <uring her pre#ious term in office- Bachelet recei#ed much criticism for her handling of the countrys last ma>or disaster that occurred toards the end of her first term in /e"ruary 2010$ At that time- an $9magnitude earth&uake hit central Chile- killing o#er 00 people- destroying 200-000 houses and causing an estimated D7 "illion dollars of damage$ =n a recent pu"lic release- the local "ranch of the .' Office for <isaster !isk !eduction .'=(<!3 praised the Chilean go#ernment for its handling of the recent earth&uake and the issuing of timely tsunami arnings$ oe#er- the seism did e*pose the increasing en#ironmental risks faced "y Chile- as e*perts forecast that the magnitude and recurrence of further earth&uakes in the country is likely to increase in the coming years$ Although the go#ernments reaction has "een praised- the recent e#ents ill pro#ide Bachelet ith only little political "reathing room in her pursuit of an am"itious reform agenda$ <uring her presidential campaign- she promised to enact 0 reforms ithin the first 100 days of her term$ +he reforms mostly touch on the countrys se#ere social ine&uality$ Among those- she pledged to esta"lish free education "y raising corporate ta* from 20E to 2E$ Chile scores poorly in terms of ealth distri"ution- ith the idest gap "eteen rich and poor among countries "elonging to the Organisation for %conomic Co9operation and <e#elopment O%C<3$ ast month- tens of thousands of protesters marched through the capital- (antiago- demanding that she keeps her election promises$
"ther deelopments "n 5 April' more than 1'666 )ra$ilian troops' reinforced by tanks' helicopters and armoured ehicles' were deployed to )ra$il7s most iolent faela in the Mare district of Rio de 0aneiro,
 +he military ere deployed in retaliation for attacks on local police units "y organised armed criminal groups$ =t underlines the limits of the pacification efforts that "egan in 'o#em"er 200$ =t is e*pected that other military operations ill "e staged in the most insecure areas in order to create a safer and more appealing en#ironment ahead of the /=/A ,orld Cup in ?une$

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