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IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2014

IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2014

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Published by Yannis Koutsomitis
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2014
Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

*Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2014
Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven

*Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

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Published by: Yannis Koutsomitis on Apr 08, 2014
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
April 2014
Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven
International Monetary Fund
World Economic and Financial Surveys
 
©2014 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge SalazarComposition: Maryland Composition
Cataloging-in-Publication Data  Joint Bank-Fund Library  World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
 World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. —  Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980–v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365). — (1986– : World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877)Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles.Has occasional updates, 1984–ISSN (print) 0256–6877ISSN (online) 1564–52151. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals. 3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-48430-834-9 (paper) 978-1-47551-576-3 (PDF) 978-1-47557-193-6 (ePub) 978-1-48432-630-5 (Mobi)
Disclaimer:
 he analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not represent official IMF policy or the views of the IMF Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation:
 International Monetary Fund,
World Economic Outlook— Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven
(Washington, April 2014).Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.el.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@imf.org  www.imfbookstore.org  www.elibrary.imf.org 
 
 International Monetary Fund
 |
April 2014
iii 
Assumptions and Conventions ixFurther Information and Data xiPreface xiiForeword xiiiExecutive Summary xvChapter 1. Recent Developments and Prospects 1
Te Demand and Activity Perspective 1Te External Sector Perspective 12Downside Risks 13Policies 19Special Feature: Commodity Prices and Forecasts 25Box 1.1. Credit Supply and Economic Growth 32Box 1.2. Is China’s Spending Pattern Shifting (away from Commodities)? 36Box 1.3. Anchoring Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is Undershooting 41Box 1.4. Exchange Rate Regimes and Crisis Susceptibility in Emerging Markets 44References 47
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 49
Te United States and Canada: Firming Momentum 49Europe 53 Asia: Steady Recovery 57Latin America and the Caribbean: Subdued Growth 60Commonwealth of Independent States: Subdued Prospects 63Te Middle East and North Africa: urning the Corner? 65Sub-Saharan Africa: Accelerating Growth 68Spillover Feature: Should Advanced Economies Worry about Growth Shocks in Emerging Market Economies? 72References 79
Chapter 3. Perspectives on Global Real Interest Rates
 
81
Stylized Facts: Measuring Real Rates and the Cost of Capital 83Determinants of Real Rates: A Saving-Investment Framework 86 Which Factors Contributed to the Decline in Real Interest Rates? 88Should We Expect a Large Reversal in Real Rates? 96Summary and Policy Conclusions 97 Appendix 3.1. Model-Based Inflation and Dividend Growth Expectations 99 Appendix 3.2. Investment Profitability 99 Appendix 3.3. Fiscal Indicator 100 Appendix 3.4. Te Effect of Financial Crises on Investment and Saving 101
CONTENTS

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