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Swedbank Economic Outlook Update

Swedbank Economic Outlook Update

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Published by Swedbank AB (publ)
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update

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Published by: Swedbank AB (publ) on Apr 09, 2014
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04/21/2014

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 © Swedbank
 
SwedbankEconomic Outlook -Update
Global recovery threatened by increased risks
Strategy & Macro Research –April, 2014Risks:Bursting of Chinese bubbles –ripple effects on other EM countries Falling prices in Eurozone –deflationEscalating sanctions vis-à-vis Russia –trade war
 
 © Swedbank
 
Table of Contents
Executive SummaryGlobal Outlook: Recovery threatened by crisis spotsRisk scenarioSweden: Stands out –but not for longEMU: Upswing continues as expectedUS: Economy thawing after temporary setbackEmerging Markets OutlookNordic: Mixed outlook Baltic countries: Positive growth despite Russia crisisAppendix
 
 © Swedbank
Executive Summary
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Swedish economy stands out –but not for long
The global economy continues to diverge, with the US as an engine and emerging markets as a brake.Risks have risen significantly: a Chinese slowdown, threats of European deflation and Russia's geopolitical expansion.The Swedish economy will slow in 2015 when households come under pressure from higher interest expenses.High unemployment and a growing share of long-term unemployed are the main structural challenges in the medium term. Furthermore, we expect fiscal policy to become tighter, which will add to the strains on household budgets when interest rates start to rise.The Baltic economies will show positive growth rates, but nevertheless be negatively affected by less trade, deteriorating confidence and dampened investments due to the Russia crisis.

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