Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(bp)
20
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
(3)
(20)
(40)
CNY
IDR
Phil
KRW
Bunds
JPY
THB
AUD
UST
MYR
SGD
INR
TWD
Brazil
Thailand
Indonesia
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
15
Singapore
20
China
Japan
25
Gen govt
Korea
30
Households
Corporates
US
35
Indonesia
Thailand
EU
40
debt % of GDP
India
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Investment % of GDP
ASEAN avg
Philippines
Malaysia
PHP
CNY
CNH
PHP
EUR
TWD
KRW
ADXY
SGD
MYR
DXY
THB
INR
JPY
IDR
45
AUD
(60)
110
% Dependency Ratio
40
100
20
35
Japan
90
China
Indonesia
Credit % yoy
18
16
30
80
70
14
12
25
10
60
20
50
15
40
4
10
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
30
0
03
100
USD bn
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
USD/IDR (RHS)
13
14
1500
75
12
50
11
25
10
1000
500
10
11
12
13
14
Dec-13
09
Jun-13
08
Dec-12
07
Jun-12
06
Dec-11
05
Jun-11
04
Dec-10
-2
03
Jun-10
-50
Dec-09
-1
Jun-09
-25
130
45
45
120
40
110
35
100
30
90
25
FX reserves USD bn
80
70
15
11
60
50
Prabowo
Bakrie
Wiranto
Kalla
Megawati
Jan-14
Jokowi
40
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
10
Jan-09
15
Jan-08
20
Jan-07
50
% yoy 3mma
60
10
9
40
20d mvavg
8
7
20
5
4
-20
Apr-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-14
14
Oct-13
13
Apr-13
12
Jan-13
11
Oct-12
10
Apr-12
09
Jan-12
08
Oct-11
07
Jul-11
-60
2
Apr-11
-40
bn USD 3mma
10
16
5
0
-5
-10
Trade Balance
14
12
12
10
10
ex oil
-15
16
3mma yoy %
14
2
CPI
WPI
-2
-20
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
-2
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
200
debt % of GDP
3.0
150
Corp Debt
2.5
Household Debt
2.0
100
1.5
50
1.0
0.5
60
50
9.4
-0.5
05
20
15
8.4
10
40
-1.6
30
0.0
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Brazil
Thailand
Singapore
China
US
Malaysia
EU
Japan
Korea
-3.2
-6.8
0
-9.1
-5
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Singapore
-15
China
-10
Thailand
10
Korea
16
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
CPI % (RHS)
14
12
5
-3.0
20
Malaysia
06
3
10
0
8
-3
-6
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10
12
10
CPI % yoy
Policy rate
-2
-4
Current Account
Portfolio Investment
FDI
-6
07
08
09
10
CPI % YoY
11
12
13
14
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
05
12
13
14
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
06
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
% yoy 3mma
bn USD
Trade Balance (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
Imports (LHS)
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
(% vs USD)
(%)
2
0
20
(bp)
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)
PHP
Bunds
IDR
AUD
KRW
TWD
UST
JPY
MYR
SGD
INR
THB
CNY
(20)
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
(10)
(12)
Nikkei
HSI
SPX
KLCI
Kospi
SHCOMP
TWSE
SENSEX
MSCIAxJ
STI
SET
PCOMP
(%)
CNY
IDR
THB
IDR
Bunds
AUD
TWD
KRW
JPY
CNY
UST
INR
MYR
THB
PHP
SGD
(20)
Bunds
(15)
JPY
(5)
(10)
AUD
TWD
KRW
10
(bp)
INR
15
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)
UST
CNH
PHP
CNY
DXY
EUR
TWD
20
PHP
(bp)
ADXY
THB
MYR
SGD
KRW
INR
JPY
IDR
AUD
(2)
MYR
(6)
JCI
(1)
SGD
(4)
HSCEI
Euro Stoxx
(2)
-0.3
Nat gas
Palm oil
-2.3
-2.8
Gold
Oil brent
-9.9
Copper
(ppts)
(%)
8/4/2014
7/3/2014
3
2
0
(1)
(2)
(2)
(%)
8/4/2014
12
7/3/2014
TWD
PHP
JPY
HKD
EUR
SGD
MYR
CNH
KRW
THB
CNY
AUD
IDR
(3)
INR
(4)
14
(ppts)
change over the last 1mth, (rhs)
10
8
6
2
0
(2)
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CNY
CNH
TWD
3.5
(%)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1M
2.5
SGD
PHP
EUR
THB
MYR
KRW
AUD
JPY
IDR
(2)
INR
(4)
3M
6M
9M
0.5
12M
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
(%)
2.0
0.0
Mar-13
3.0
Implied
Jun-13
Sep-13
Implied
Realized
Dec-13
Apr-14
Realized
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
0.0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
(%)
4.0
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
6.27
3.0
6.24
2.0
6.21
1.0
6.18
0.0
6.15
-1.0
6.12
Spot
1M
3M
7.77
6M
9M
12M
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
7.76
7.75
-2.0
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
0.00
0.7
-0.02
Current (08-Apr )
0.6
-0.04
0.5
-0.06
0.4
-0.08
0.3
-0.10
0.2
-0.12
0.1
-0.14
7.74
1M
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
12,400
Current (08-Apr )
12,200
11,800
11,600
11,400
11,200
11,000
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
10.0 (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
12
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
65
9M
12M
Realized
15
10
Current (08-Apr )
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
25
20
63
Implied
20
10
64
Realized
0.0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
25
1M
66
6M
12M
12,000
Spot
3M
Implied
15
62
10
Current (08-Apr )
60
59
61
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
1,090
1,080
1,070
1,060
1,050
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1,040
1,030
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
1M
12M
12M
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
3M
(%)
6M
9M
12M
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
Implied
Realized
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
16
Implied
Realized
12
8
4
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
3.35
3.30
3.25
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
3.20
3.15
3.10
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
(%)
12
45.0
44.8
44.6
44.4
Current (08-Apr )
44.2
44.0
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
6
3
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1.270
0.00
1.265
-0.01
1.260
-0.02
1.255
-0.03
1.250
-0.04
1.240
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
33.0
10
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
3M
2.0
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
31.8
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
12M
4
2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
10
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
Implied
Realized
8
6
4
2
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
Current (08-Apr )
4.0
32.4
Realized
32.8
3.0
Implied
1M
32.6
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
12M
-0.06
5.0
32.0
9M
(%)
12M
33.2
32.2
6M
-0.05
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1.245
3M
1M
12M
Realized
1M
45.2
Implied
1.0
0.0
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
9
Implied
Realized
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
0.0
30.5
(%)
Implied
Realized
-1.0
30.0
-2.0
-3.0
29.5
-4.0
Current (08-Apr )
29.0
-5.0
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
-6.0
-7.0
28.5
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
1M
12M
0.03
1.388
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
12
0.03
1.385
0.02
1.383
0.02
0.01
1.380
0.01
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1.377
1.374
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
-0.01
1M
0.0
103.0
-0.1
102.5
-0.1
102.0
-0.2
101.5
101.0
Current (08-Apr )
-0.2
-0.3
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
100.5
Spot 1M
3M
6M
9M 12M
-0.3
1M
3.0
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85
Implied
Realized
12M
103.5
Current (08-Apr )
0.00
3M
6M
9M
12M
(%)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Implied
Realized
2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
15
Current (08-Apr )
2.5
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
12
2.0
1.5
1.0
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
Spot
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
0.5
0.0
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
Implied
Realized
FX
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
USD/HKD
USD/IDR
USD/INR
USD/KRW
USD/MYR
USD/PHP
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/TWD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EUR/SEK
EUR/NOK
AUD/USD
Spot
6.21
6.21
7.75
11,356
60.3
1038
3.23
44.5
1.25
32.2
30.0
1.38
102
8.99
8.22
0.94
2Q
6.15
6.15
7.80
11,600
60.0
1050
3.30
45.5
1.26
33.2
30.3
1.35
106
8.70
8.45
0.95
3Q
6.00
6.00
7.80
11,500
60.0
1040
3.20
44.0
1.24
33.0
29.4
1.30
110
8.60
8.50
0.91
4Q2014
5.90
5.90
7.80
11,400
59.0
1020
3.17
43.5
1.21
32.5
29.0
1.28
112
8.50
8.50
0.90
1Q2015
6.00
6.00
7.80
11,200
59.0
1020
3.17
43.5
1.21
32.5
29.0
1.28
112
8.50
8.50
0.85
Policy Rates
CH lending
CH deposit
Korea
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Taiwan
Current
6.00
3.00
2.50
8.00
7.50
3.00
3.50
2.00
1.88
2Q
6.00
3.00
2.50
8.25
7.50
3.00
3.50
1.75
1.88
3Q
5.75
3.25
2.50
8.25
8.00
3.25
4.00
1.75
1.88
4Q2014
5.75
3.25
2.75
8.25
8.00
3.50
4.00
1.75
1.88
1Q2015
5.50
3.50
2.75
8.00
8.00
3.75
4.00
1.75
2.00
US
EU
SW
NO
AU
0.25
0.25
0.75
1.50
2.50
0.25
0.25
0.75
1.50
2.50
0.25
0.25
1.00
1.50
2.50
0.25
0.25
1.00
1.75
2.50
0.25
0.25
1.00
1.75
2.50
2011
9.3
7.5
6.5
3.6
5.3
2012
7.7
5.4
6.2
2.0
1.3
2013
7.7
4.7
5.6
2.8
3.2
2014
7.2
5.0
5.3
3.6
4.0
2015
7.0
5.4
5.5
3.5
3.8
US
Euro zone
Sweden
Norway
1.8
1.6
3.7
1.2
2.8
-0.7
1.0
3.1
1.7
-0.4
0.7
0.9
3.1
0.8
2.5
2.4
3.7
1.6
3.2
2.1
CPI % yoy
China
India WPI
Indonesia
Korea
Singapore
2011
3.3
9.5
5.1
4.2
2.8
2012
3.5
6.5
4.3
1.4
4.5
2013
2.7
6.2
7.2
1.3
2.4
2014
3.1
5.6
6.8
2.2
2.9
2015
3.2
5.2
5.5
2.3
2.6
US
Euro zone
Sweden
Norway
3.1
2.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
2.5
0.9
0.8
1.6
1.3
0.0
2.2
1.6
0.6
0.6
2.0
2.2
0.6
1.9
2.1