o

Mi teTM 1002

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by Paul Ellerman,
Director of Reliability pellerman@microsemi.com

Calculating Reliability using FIT & MTTF: Arrhenius HTOL Model

Scope
Establish a metho for calculatin! the stan ar reliability "alues Failure Rate #$%, Failures in Time #&'T% an Mean Time to Failure #MTT&% usin! the (rrhenius High Temperature Operating Life #)T*+% mo el. The focus of this paper is to present the applicable e,uations, terms an efinitions alon! -ith an e.ample of an E.cel ri"en reliability calculator use to perform these calculations.

Ter s & !e"initions

Reliability is efine as the probability that a component or system -ill continue to perform its inten e function un er state operatin! con itions o"er a specifie perio of time. The reliability le"el is eri"e by monitorin! the functional stability of a number of representati"e sub/ects operatin! un er ele"ate stress con itions resultin! in a statistical pre iction of reliability. T-o approaches to establishin! a reliability le"el is to e"aluate either the probability of survival or the probability of failure. Either metho is e,ually effecti"e, but the most common metho is to calculate the probability of failure or Rate of Failure #$%. The "alues most commonly use -hen calculatin! the le"el of reliability are FIT (Failures in Time) an MTTF (Mean Time to Failure) or MTBF (Mean Time between Failures) epen in! on type of component or system bein! e"aluate .

#$uations & Calculations

Failure Rate %&' in this mo el is calculate by i"i in! the total number of failures or re/ects by the cumulati"e time of operation. 'n

the )T*+ mo el, the cumulati"e time of operation is referre to as E,ui"alent De"ice )ours #ED)%0

EDH ??D ??H ??Af

-here0 ! 1 Number of De"ices Teste H 1 Test )ours per De"ice A" 1 (cceleration &actor eri"e from the (rrhenius e,uation

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3alculatin! Reliability usin! &'T 4 MTT&0 )T*+ Mo el MicroNote 10025 Re" 05 16762012 3opyri!ht 8 Microsemi 3orp.

MicroNoteTM 1002

The Failure Rate ( ) per hour is sho-n by0

hour

r r D ??H ? EDH ??Af

-here0

r 1 number of failures or re/ects.

Acceleration Factor %A"' is the test time multiplier eri"e from the

(rrhenius e,uation. This e,uation calculates the time acceleration "alue that results from operatin! a e"ice at an ele"ate temperature. The test type use to achie"e this is !enerally referre to as High Temperature Operating Life #)T*+% or Burn! in. More specific terms for these tests epen on the type of technolo!y un er test. Tests such as High Temperature Reverse Bias #)TR9%" #$ Burn!in an %lternating $urrent Operating Life #(3*+% are technolo!y specific tests -ithin the )T*+ cate!ory. The (cceleration &actor #(f% is sho-n by0
1
a

? ?

Af ??e
-here0

k ? T

? 1T

use

? test ?

#a 1 (cti"ation Ener!y #e:% of the failure mo e ( #9olt;mann<s 3onstant% 1 =.21> . 10)* e:6?@ Tuse 1 Ase Temperature #stan ar i;e at BB?3 or C2=?@% Ttest 1 Test Temperature #)T*+ temperature in ?@% +, # e!rees @el"in% 1 2>C D ?3 e- 1 electron "olts

Acti.ation energy %#a' is an empirical "alue that is the minimum ener!y

re,uire to initiate a specific type of failure mo e that can occur -ithin a technolo!y type. *.i e efects, bulE silicon efects, masE efects, electroFmi!ration an contamination are some e.amples of such failure mo es, each -ith an uni,ue associate Ea. 'n lieu of usin! empirical ata for each in i"i ual failure mo e, it is !enerally accepte that a stan ar sin!le "alue of #a / 012 e- pro"i es a reasonably accurate a"era!e Ea "alue for io e type semicon uctors.
To eri"e a more statistically accurate calculation for Failure Rate ( ), the

3alculatin! Reliability usin! &'T 4 MTT&0 )T*+ Mo el MicroNote 10025 Re" 05 16762012 3opyri!ht 8 Microsemi 3orp.

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MicroNoteTM 1002
number of re&e'ts #r% is replace -ith the probability function usin! $hi! s(uare) (X*)+

r~
-here0

2 ??,?? 2

X343 #3hiFs,uare 62% is the probability estimation for the

number of failures or re/ects.

?%alpha', 'onfi)en'e level #3+% or probability, is the applicable percent area un er the X3 probability istribution cur"e5
reliability

3alculatin! Reliability usin! &'T 4 MTT&0 )T*+ Mo el MicroNote 10025 Re" 05 16762012 3opyri!ht 8 Microsemi 3orp.

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calculations use ?1 0.2 #or 20G%. Note0 The total area un er the X3 cur"e is al-ays 1, so ??H 1 #or 100G%.

?%nu', )egrees of free)om #D&%, etermines the shape of the X3 cur"e5 reliability calculations use ?1 2r D 2 -here r 1 number of failures or re/ects.
The e,uation for Failure Rate ( ) per hour then becomes0

2 ??,?? 2 ??,?? ? ? hour 2 ??D ?? 2 ??EDH H ??Af

FIT %Failures in Ti e' is a stan ar in ustry "alue efine as the Failure Rate ( ) per billion hours.

FIT ??T ?
FI

?109

hour s

MTTF %Mean Ti e to Failure or ,' is another stan ar in ustry "alue -hich pro"i es the a"era!e time to failure of -on!repairable Items such as li!ht bulbs an io es or unser"iceable systems such as satellites or other unmanne space craft. &or items -ith lon! life e.pectancies, it is often a more useful to report MTT& in years rather than hours.

MTTF

1 hours ? hours

or

MTTFyears ? 1

?
hou rs

??24 ??365?

MT5F %Mean Ti e bet6een Failures' is use to escribe Repairable Items such as compressors an aircraft. MT9& uses MTT& as one factor an Mean Time to Repair #MTTR% as the other to capture the complete breaEF o-n an repair cycle. The primary purpose of MT9& is to i entify appropriate pre"enti"e maintenance sche ules to a"oi , perhaps in efinitely, catastrophic failures ue to pre ictable piece part wear!out. %s a rule of thumb" 'omponent reliability 'enters aroun) MTTF sin'e most 'omponents 'annot be repaire)+ MT9& is sho-n by0

MTBF ??MTTF ??MTTR

-here0 MTTR is the Mean Time to Repair. Reliability Calculation Tools *"er the years, there ha"e been se"eral metho s use to eri"e the "alue for X2

#3hiF s,uare %5 e"erythin! from the use of probability tables to the application of

appro.imation e(uations. More etail on this sub/ect is iscusse in /$al'ulating $hi! s(uare) (X2) for Reliability 0(uations1 by this author. The follo-in! is an

e.cerpt.

'n MI E.cel 200C an later "ersions, the 3)''N: function calculates X2 from the input

ata probability an )eg2free)om ren erin! accurate "alues throu!hout the entire use ran!e up to JF ecimal places. This metho is currently use as a stan ar in the statistics community for calculatin! "alues for the X2 istribution. 'n E.cel, the formula is e.presse as0
3$HII-4(probability")eg2free)om) 'n eterminin! ?%nu'7 e!rees of free om or )eg2free)om, -e use the e,uation escribe pre"iously -here r 3 number of failures or re&e'ts0

???2?r ??1????2r ??2

Iince reliability calculations re,uire the left portion of area un er the X2 istribution

cur"e an 3)''N: happens to calculate the right si e" -e must use the e,uation belo- to etermine the correct "alue for probability0
CHIINV ( probability) ??1 ?
-hen usin! ecimal "alues for ?, or

? CHIINV ( probability) ??1 ?

100

-hen usin! percenta!e "alues for ?. E.ample0 for ?1 .20 or 20G, 3)''N:#probability% 1 .J0 or J0G respecti"ely. &i!ure 1 sho-s an e.ample of an E.cel ri"en reliability calculator -hich !reatly simplifies the calculation acti"ity.

MicroNoteK 1002

CMi rose!i
Reliability 3alculator
Reliability 3alculator usin! (rrhenius )T*+ Mo el
3hiF I,u.are #L<% @ 2F 0G 3onfi enc J.0JB (cce leration &actor
#(f%

MicroNoteru 100J
by PaulEllerman, Director of Reliability pellerman@micros emi.com

>>.7J

Total Numbe r of &ailure s 1

Total Number of De"ice )ours #D)% C71,000

E,ui"alen t De"ice )ours #ED)% C0,J>J,72C

'NPAT D( T(0 Do not use screenin! ata for reliability calculations.

Test Temperature ('C) Ase Temperat ure ('C) BB Establis he (c ti"ation Ener!y #Ea% 0.>

12B

Numb er of &ailure s #r% 0 1

Numbe r of De"ice s Teste 220 JB0

Test )ours per De"ice #)% 1000 C=0

&ailure Rate #(MMMM% &'T 0&ailures in Time #( per billion hours%

2.2J EF0=

66

'n icates Data Entry Point

MT'&..... 0Mean Time to &ailure #2 in hours%

1B,02N7,CC=

MT'& .... 0Mean Time to 'n icates :ariable :alue

&ailure #= in years%

1,>20

Parameters 4 3onstants
r 1 number of failures or re/ects D 1 Number of De"ices Teste ) 1 Test )ours per De"ice T #3alculation Temperature in @el"in% 1 3elsius D 2>C< T<O< 1 Test Temperature #)TR9 or other burnFin temperature% T.,.1 Ase Temperature #stan ar i;e at BB<3 or C2=<@% E.1 (c ti"ation Ener!y #e:% P1<062 #3hiFI,uare 62% is the probability estimation for number of failures at a an "% a #alpha% 1 3onfi ence +e"elfor istribution5 reliability calculations use a 3 20G or .20 " #nu% 1 De!rees of &ree om for istribution5reliability calculations use " = 2r D 2 ( 11 (cce leration &actor from the (rrhenius e,uation E #9olt;mann<s 3onstant % 1 =.21> . 10eFB e:r@ D) #De"ice )ours% 1 D . ) ED) #E,ui"alent De"ice )ours% 1 D . ) . ( 1

E,uations

Ahour

FIT

%"hours X 10 9

x"'

x"'

(MMMM 1 &ailure Rate per hour &'T #(m% 1 &ailures in Time 1 &ailure Rate per billion hours MT'& 1 Mean Time to &ailure

MTT ours 1

1<
$

"#D#H#A

Ahours

MTTFyears 1 # ours X 24 X

365)

3alculatin! Reliability usin! &'T 4 MTT&0 )T*+Mo el

MicroN ote 10020 Re" 05 11712012 3opyri!ht@ Microsemi 3orp.

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MicroNoteTM 1002

Re"erence Material

1. PatricE D. T. *Q3onnor, 6ra'ti'al Reliability 0ngineering, Jth e ., Rohn Siley 4 Ions, A@, #2010% 2. 3harles E. Ebelin!, %n Intro)u'tion to Reliability an) Maintainability 0ngineering, 2n e ., Sa"elan Press, AI( #2010% 3. Sayne 9. Nelson, %''elerate) Testing!7tatisti'al Mo)els" Test 6lans 8 #ata %nalysis, Rohn Siley 4 Ions, AI( 4. Dimitri @ececio!lu 4 &en!F9in Iun, Burn!In Testing!Its 9uantifi'ation 8 Optimi:ation, DEItech Publications, 5. Iamuel M. Ielby, Ph.D. Ic.D., 7tan)ar) Mathemati'al Tables, 12th e ., The 6. Mary Tibbons Natrella, 0.perimental 7tatisti's, National 9ureau of Itan ar s )an booE 71, Anite Itates
Department of 3ommerce, Sashin!ton D.3., AI( #172C% 7. Thomas Py; eE, The 7i. 7igma Han)boo;, McTra-F)ill, Ne- UorE, AI( #200C% 8. Ray Di9u!nara, Mo)el for $al'ulating 6art Reliability from Life Test #ata, Microsemi 3orporation #2007% 9. Paul Ellerman, $al'ulating $hi!s(uare) (X2) for Reliability 0(uations, MicroNote 100C, Microsemi 3orporation #2012% 3hemical Rubber 3o. #3R3%, 3le"elan , *hio, AI( #17>2% AI( #200C% #200J%

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