The weekly briefing | 14 April 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: UN Secretary- eneral calls for independent rig!ts "onitoring in #estern Sa!ara a!ead of peacekeeping force de$ate% Americas: ro&ing discontent &it! Argentine president a"id econo"ic U-turn% Asia and Pacific: 'aoist (iolence "ars )ndia*s elections in +!!attisgar! state% Europe: NA,O raises concerns o(er -ussian $uild-up near Ukrainian $order Middle East: .iolence in )ra/ increases in run up to election% Polar regions: Nordic defence "inisters for" united front against -ussia%

Africa
UN ecretary!"eneral calls for independent rights monitoring in #estern ahara ahead of peacekeeping force debate )n a report to t!e UN Security +ouncil on 10 April0 UN Secretary- eneral Ban 1i"oon !as called for independent !u"an rig!ts "onitoring in #estern Sa!ara% 2is report reopens t!e de$ate o(er &!et!er t!e e3isting UN peacekeeping force in t!e 'oroccan-controlled territory s!ould &iden t!eir re"it to include t!e reporting of !u"an rig!ts (iolations0 for &!ic! 'orocco !as co"e under rene&ed criticis" in recent "ont!s% #!ile Ban &elco"ed 'oroccan efforts to i"pro(e t!e situation in t!e disputed territory0 including t!e decision to end t!e trial of ci(ilians $y "ilitary tri$unal0 contro(ersy o(er t!e disputed territory re"ains% #estern Sa!ara !as $een under 'oroccan control for al"ost 40 years0 anne3ing t!e for"er Spanis! colony in a "o(e ne(er recognised $y t!e international co""unity% 'orocco !as $een criticised internationally follo&ing recent cla"pdo&ns on pro-independence groups in t!e territory% ,!e e3ploration of #estern Sa!aran &aters $y foreign oil co"panies !as also $eco"e a contentious issue% ,!e e3isting UN peacekeeping force0 ')NU-SO0 !as "onitored a ceasefire $et&een 'orocco and t!e pro-independence Polisario 4ront0 $acked $y Algeria0 since 15510 $ut it is currently not responsi$le for reporting on !u"an rig!ts% #it! t!e UN force*s "andate rene&al co"ing up later t!is "ont!0 contro(ersy is likely to re-e"erge o(er t!e disputed territory% A US-led effort to e3tend t!e "andate to include !u"an rig!ts reporting &as dropped last year follo&ing intense 'oroccan lo$$ying efforts% 'orocco proposes autono"y "easures for t!e territory0 $ut t!e Polisario 4ront re6ects t!is0 insisting instead on t!e rig!t to a referendu"% ,!e Security +ouncil &ill ne3t consult on #estern Sa!ara on 17 April%

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%ther de&elopments The UN has appro&ed the deployment of 1$'((( troops to the )entral African *epublic +)A*,- ,!e Security +ouncil resolution &as endorsed unani"ously on 10 April0 "arking t!e UN*s "ost decisi(e step yet to ste" t!e spiral of sectarian (iolence% As t!e force &ill not deploy until Septe"$er0 t!e currently deployed 80000-strong peacekeeping force 9an a"alga"ation of African Union and :uropean forces0 led $y 4rance; is likely to $e conspicuously under-resourced due t!e contro(ersial recent &it!dra&al of +!adian forces0 follo&ing allegations of +!ad*s pro- S<l<ka in(ol(e"ent in +A-% ,!e continuing conflict and retaliation $y t!e +!ristian anti-$alaka self-defence "ilitias !as led to an e3odus of predo"inantly 'usli" refugees into neig!$ouring countries0 &it! t!e UN refugee agency reporting t!e daily arri(al of t!ousands of refugees to +a"eroon in particular% The United tates has announced sanctions targeting indi&iduals in&ol&ed in the outh udan conflict' the tate .epartment announced on 11 April- ,!e United States0 &!ic! $acked Sout! Sudan=s $id for independence in 20110 e3pressed increasing concern o(er t!e conflict t!at !as desta$ilised t!e country o(er t!e past "ont!s despite repeated ceasefire atte"pts% President Sal(a 1iir*s ar"y is fig!ting re$el forces tied to for"er .ice President -iek 'ac!ar0 &!o is accused of conspiring to initiate a coup against t!e current president% 'ean&!ile0 re$el forces clai" t!at 1iir is trying to purge internal opposition $efore ne3t year=s elections% ,!e decision to i"pose sanctions0 including (isa $ans and asset sei>ures0 follo&s a decree signed $y US President Barack O$a"a last &eek aut!orising puniti(e sanctions against Sout! Sudanese indi(iduals t!reatening peace negotiations% /uman *ights #atch has accused 0enya of mistreating the large omali population li&ing in the country- On 11 April0 t!e N O !ea(ily criticised t!e 1enyan go(ern"ent for its !ea(y-!anded approac! to&ards So"alis follo&ing increased security "easures against t!ose suspected of sy"pat!ising &it! So"alia=s radical al-S!a$aa$0 t!e al-?aeda affiliated terrorist "o(e"ent t!at clai"ed responsi$ility for t!e 201@ attack on t!e #estgate s!opping "all in Nairo$i0 1enya% O(er t!e pre(ious &eek0 police !a(e detained close to 40000 people0 a significant proportion of &!ic! &ere detained &it!in Nairo$i=s "ain So"ali district0 :astleig!% ,!e 1enyan go(ern"ent !as announced t!at se(eral !undred of t!e arrested are still undergoing identity c!ecks0 and 82 !a(e already $een e3pelled fro" t!e country% %n the radar Anti!go&ernment protests possible in wa1iland surrounding t!e $irt!day of 1ing 's&ati ))) on 15 April% 2irst round of the presidential election in Algeria on 17 April% "eneral elections in outh Africa on 7 'ay% 3n&estigations are to be carried out into the shooting of 4ritish and 2rench consultants to the UN %ffice on .rugs and )rime +UN%.),' &!o &ere attacked upon t!eir arri(al in alkayo0 central So"alia0 on 7 April% The UN is warning of the risk of food insecurity to up to four million people in udan due to poor !ar(est0 conflict and displace"ent%

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A"ericas
"rowing discontent with Argentine president amid economic U!turn On 10 April0 a national la$our strike &as staged in Argentina*s capital0 Buenos Aires0 and t!e "a6or cities 'endo>a and +ordo$a% O(er a "illion people &ent on strike to de"and a 40A &age increase to co"pensate for inflation0 &!ic! pri(ate consultancies say currently stands at @BA per year% Curing 24 !ours0 airports0 docks0 and road and rail net&orks &ere $locked% ,!e action &as called $y t!e +onfederation of Da$our 9+ ,;0 a union t!at represents dockers and road !auliers% ,!e + , is !eaded $y t!e po&erful la$our "agnate 2ugo 'oyano0 a for"er friend and no& $itter ri(al of President 4ernEnde> de 1irc!ner% Nearly one out of fi(e e"ployed F and t&o out of t!ree unionised &orkers F $elong to t!e + ,0 "aking of it one of t!e largest la$our federations of t!e &orld% Since t!e $eginning of t!e year0 t!e country !as endured a U-turn in econo"ic policies% ,!e initial s!ift can $e identified in Ganuary0 &!en t!e +entral Bank of Argentina 9B+-A; de(alued t!e peso $y nearly 20A% Up until t!en0 4ernande> !ad consistently re6ected t!e idea of suc! a se(ere de(aluation $ecause it &ould predo"inantly affect t!e &orking class0 &!ic! tends to rely e3clusi(ely on sa(ings to pay for retired% 4urt!er"ore0 in an effort to $olster t!e accounta$ility of its econo"ic indicators0 t!e go(ern"ent !as recently re(ie&ed its CP and inflation inde3es% Suc! a re(ie& &as de"anded $y t!e )nternational 'onetary 4und 9)'4;0 &!ic! t!reatened t!e country &it! sanctions if it failed to pro(ide "ore relia$le econo"ic indicators% As a result0 t!e official inflation rate &as increased and t!e output gro&t! of 201@ &as re(ised fro" 4%5A to @A% ,!ese transfor"ations reflect a $roader s!ift in t!e country*s econo"ic "odel in an atte"pt to $olster foreign in(est"ent and access to c!eap credit% ,!is &as a "a6or factor $e!ind t!e recent agree"ent to pay HB $illion to t!e Spanis! oil and gas co"pany -epsol in order to end an international legal suit after t!e go(ern"ent e3propriated -epsol*s "a6ority stake in IP4 in 2012% ,!is return to "ore ort!odo3 policies &as also reflected in t!e recent 20A reduction in state su$sidies for gas and electricity tariffs% ,!e recent national protests s!ould $e understood in t!e conte3t of t!is U-turn in econo"ic policies% A&are of t!e li"its of its econo"ic "odel0 t!e Argentine go(ern"ent is undertaking a gradual fiscal and "onetary ad6ust"ent0 nota$ly to address t!e pro$le"s of rising inflation and decreasing foreign reser(es% As suc!0 furt!er national strikes are likely to occur as t!e go(ern"ent deepens t!e econo"ic refor"s% )n 'ay 20140 t!e go(ern"ent is to "eet &it! t!e +lu$ of Paris to renegotiate t!e repay"ent of H5 $illion of unpaid de$t issued during t!e country*s 2001 econo"ic crisis% %ther de&elopments %n 1( April' 6ene1uela7s President Nicol8s Maduro initiated a cycle of meetings with the opposition coalition' the .emocratic Unity *oundtable +MU.,- ,!e talks &ere organised at t!e $e!est of t!e Union of Sout! A"erican Nations 9UNASU-;% ,!e opposition nota$ly de"ands an ar"istice for its i"prisoned leaders0 &!ic! t!e go(ern"ent !as not yet accepted%

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Peru&ian authorities captured $5 leading members of the hining Path + endero :uminoso, militant group during a national operation initiated on ; March- +reated in 15800 t!e 'aoist guerrilla group !as $een i"plicated in t!e deat! of 700000 people0 t!oug! follo&ing t!e capture of its founder and leader0 A$i"ael u>"an0 in 15520 t!e t!reat posed $y t!e group !as $eco"e "arginal% Around 400 "e"$ers of t!e organisation are $elie(ed to $e still acti(ely engaged0 especially in t!e sout! of t!e country% %n 1$ April' the 2rench Minister of 2oreign Affairs' :aurent 2abius' paid a &isit to )uban President *aul )astro to discuss political topics' human rights and bilateral relations- Since 4e$ruary0 t!e :uropean Union !as initiated a process of nor"alisation of its relations &it! t!e island*s co""unist regi"e% ,!e +u$an go(ern"ent is currently undertaking a progressi(e li$eralisation of its econo"y in order to attract foreign in(estors% 2o&e(er0 trade &it! t!e country is li"ited due to t!e continued US e"$argo% %n the radar Presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in Panama on @ 'ay% Unrest almost certain to continue across 6ene1uela7s main cities' particularly in t!e capital0 +aracas0 a"id t!e ongoing political crisis% Nationwide demonstrations are likely across 4ra1il on 17 April0 surrounding t!e anni(ersary of t!e killing of 15 landless de"onstrators $y police in 155J% Acti&ists plan to rally on 1< April in *io de =aneiro and >o Paulo' 4ra1il' against t!e fort!co"ing 4)4A #orld +up tourna"ent%

Asia and Pacific

Maoist &iolence mars 3ndia7s elections in )hhattisgarh state 'aoist re$els !a(e caused t!e deat!s of 14 people in t&o attacks on 12 April in )ndia*s central state of +!!attisgar!% Curing t!e first attack0 a land "ine e3ploded underneat! a $us in t!e Bi6apur district of 1arnataka state0 &!ic! resulted in t!e deat!s of fi(e election &orkers and t&o $us dri(ers% -e$els t!en opened fire on t!e $us0 in6uring a furt!er fi(e people% )n a second attack on t!e sa"e day0 insurgents killed t&o ci(ilians and fi(e security officials in Car$!a 4orest% ,!e attacks are $elie(ed to !a(e $een designed to disrupt t!e general election0 &!ic! $egan on 7 April and is set to continue across t!e country until 12 'ay% .oting $egan in +!!attisgar! on 10 April and is due to continue in t&o additional rounds later t!is "ont!% ,!e 'aoist insurgency in )ndia0 also kno&n as t!e Na3alite "o(e"ent0 $egan in t!e 15J0s% Since t!at ti"e0 (iolence associated &it! t!e group !as reportedly clai"ed "ore t!an 120000 li(es% ,!e "o(e"ent currently !as operations in 20 out of )ndia*s 28 states% ,!ey are0 !o&e(er0 "ost acti(e in t!e states of +!!attisgar!0 Bi!ar0 #est Bengal and G!ark!and% Na3al (iolence !as targeted $ot! ci(ilians and state officials0 and !as $een dee"ed t!e country*s "ost significant internal security t!reat $y Pri"e 'inister 'an"o!an Sing!% Alt!oug! t!e Na3als !a(e caused sporadic (iolence in )ndia0 t!ey are not e3pected to cause &idespread disruption to election procedures% )n response to t!ese attacks0 t!e go(ern"ent !as deployed t!ousands of para"ilitary officers and ot!er security personnel to protect (oting stations across t!e country% ,!e largest concentrations of security forces are $eing stationed in t!ose areas &!ere t!e Na3al presence is strongest% ,!e insurgents !a(e called for a $oycott of t!e elections and t!reatened increasing (iolence as t!e polling continues t!roug!out t!e "ont!% Open Briefing | 9

,!is year*s Dok Sa$!a 9lo&er !ouse of parlia"ent; elections !a(e also caused strong tensions $et&een t!e leading parties% ,!e +ongress Party0 currently led $y t!e incu"$ent pri"e "inister and t!e B!aratiya Ganata Party 9BGP; are typically considered t!e pri"ary parties in )ndia*s elections% -ecently0 !o&e(er0 a (ariety of locally-oriented parties and t!e Aa" Aad"i Party0 &!ic! runs on a pri"arily anti-corruption platfor"0 !a(e gained strengt! in t!e )ndian political arena% Cespite t!e recent episode of (iolence0 t!e elections !a(e so far $een largely peaceful0 t!oug! occasional (iolence !as $een reported across t!e country &!en supporters of co"peting parties !a(e clas!ed% Alt!oug! so"e furt!er (iolence at ca"paign e(ents is possi$le0 Na3al (iolence is not likely to escalate considera$ly0 nor !a(e any significant i"pact on (oter turnout% %ther de&elopments The Myanmar go&ernment announced the creation of a new committee to protect foreign aid workers- ,!e go(ern"ent !as called for an in(estigation into attacks on aid &orkers in late 'arc! in -ak!ine State% ,!e attacks destroyed o(er @0 offices and residences0 &it! da"age esti"ated to e3ceed H4200000% ,!e in(estigation yielded a report t!at &as deli(ered to t!e president0 as &ell as t!e leaders!ips of "any large non-go(ern"ent organisations operating in t!e region% As part of t!e in(estigation report0 t!e go(ern"ent indicated t!at it &ill esta$lis! a co""ittee &it! national-le(el aut!ority to ensure t!e security of aid &orkers% ,!e ne& co""ittee &ill $e ai"ed at pro(iding $ot! increased p!ysical security and fostering greater co""unity relations &it! local residents in -ak!ine% N O operations &ere suspended in so"e areas follo&ing t!e (iolence% ,!e "a6ority of t!ese restrictions !a(e since $een lifted and aid &ork !as resu"ed0 $ut so"e areas re"ain inaccessi$le to N O acti(ity% %&er 1?( million people casted &otes in 3ndonesia7s parliamentary elections on ? April- Alt!oug! official results &ill not $e kno&n until early 'ay0 e3it polls indicated t!at t!e country*s "ain opposition party0 t!e )ndonesian Ce"ocratic Party of Struggle 9PC)-P;0 earned around 15A of t!e popular (ote% ,!is nu"$er falls $elo& t!e 2B-@0A t!at "any !ad predicted for t!e party% ,!e PC)-P is t!e party to &!ic! popular politician Goko #idodo $elongs% Cu$$ed KGoko&i* $y "any )ndonesians0 #idodo recently announced t!at !e &ould $e running for president in t!e country*s presidential elections in early Gune of t!is year% 2o&e(er0 in order for a party to offer a candidate for t!e presidency0 t!ey "ust secure eit!er 20A of parlia"entary seats or a "ini"u" of 2BA of t!e popular (ote in t!e parlia"entary elections% Alt!oug! t!e official nu"$er is not yet kno&n0 it appears t!at Goko&i &ill likely need to for" a coalition &it! at least one ot!er party in order to run for t!e presidency% )n contrast to Goko&i*s rising popularity0 t!e Ce"ocrat Party of incu"$ent President Susilo Ba"$ang Iud!oyono earned only 5A of t!e popular (ote0 do&n fro" 21A in 2005% outh 0orea has announced that they will be engaging in a @oint military air drill with the United tates- ,!e drill0 kno&n as 'a3 ,!under0 is typically !eld t&ice a year0 $ut t!is year*s e3ercises &ill $e t!e largest US-Sout! 1orean air drills conducted to date% ,!e e3ercises &ill in(ol(e 10@ aircraft and 10400 troops% )n addition to 'a3 ,!under0 t!e United States and Sout! 1orea are continuing regular e3ercises kno&n as 4oal :agle and 1ey -esol(e0 &!ic! are set to conclude on 18 April% ,!e 'a3 ,!under e3ercise &ill last t&o &eeks and is likely to focus on practical scenarios $et&een t!e US and -epu$lic of 1orea Air 4orce pilots% ,!e announce"ent co"es as tensions $et&een Sout! 1orea and Nort! 1orea continue to rise%

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%n the radar unni Muslim groups plan to rally in :ahore' Pakistan' on 1B April to conde"n t!e alleged discretion of s!rines in Syria% 3ncreased security eApected across 3ndia and ri :anka surrounding Puthandu 9also kno&n as ,a"il Ne& Iear;0 &!ic! co""ences on 14 April% The 4angladesh Nationalist Party +4NP, has called for a shutdown strike in t!e -angpur district of Banglades! on 1J April% Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott hopes to eApedite the signing of a free trade deal with )hina at t!is year*s Bo*ao 4oru" for Asia% 3ncreased security and associated disruption eApected in the Philippines during /oly #eek 9also kno&n as 'a!al na Ara& or Se"ana Santa;0 &!ic! co""enced on 1@ April and ends on 20 April%

:urope
NAT% raises concerns o&er *ussian build!up near Ukrainian border On 8 April0 NA,O called on -ussia to pull $ack its forces t!at !ad $een gat!ered at t!e $order &it! eastern Ukraine and &arned t!at -ussia &ould face gra(e conse/uences if any furt!er inter(ention &as carried out% NA,O*s Secretary- eneral0 Anders 4og! -as"ussen0 also called for -ussia to engage in dialogue &it! t!e Ukrainian go(ern"ent% On 10 April0 NA,O*s c!ief "ilitary co""ander suggested t!e possi$ility of deploying US troops to NA,O-"e"$er countries in :astern :urope to counter"easure -ussian "ilitary t!reats against Ukraine% ,!e foreign "inisters of NA,O countries !a(e tasked US Air 4orce eneral P!ilip Breedlo(e &it! presenting a package of land0 air and "ariti"e "easures $y 1B April to assure :astern :uropean "e"$ers of t!eir safety in t!e face of an increasing -ussian "ilitary presence in t!e region% At a NA,O conference in Paris0 p!otograp!s &ere presented0 s!o&ing a continuing $uild-up of a co"$at-ready -ussian "ilitary presence along t!e Ukrainian $order0 including &arplanes0 co"$at !elicopters0 ar"our0 artillery and air$orne or special forces $rigades% )t is $elie(ed t!at -ussia !as gat!ered a force of appro3i"ately 400000 troops in t!e area% Ukrainian Pri"e 'inister Arseniy Iatsenyuk (isited Conetsk on 11 April% )n a $id to resol(e t!e standoff &it! pro--ussian protesters in t!e city0 Iatsenyuk announced t!at t!e Ukrainian go(ern"ent &as co""itted to addressing t!e grie(ances of eastern Ukrainians% 2e said t!at in upco"ing constitutional refor"s0 t!e go(ern"ent &ould take steps to&ards decentralisation and gi(e regions "ore po&er0 suc! as t!e a$olis!"ent of local ad"inistrations controlled $y t!e Ukrainian go(ern"ent% Pro--ussian separatists !a(e occupied a regional ad"inistration $uilding in Conetsk since J April% ,!e protesters originally called for a referendu"L !o&e(er0 during t!e &eek t!ey lo&ered t!eir de"ands to autono"y0 t!oug! t!ey &arned t!at a referendu" could $e !eld at a later date% ,ensions re"ain !ig! around t!e country0 especially in eastern Ukraine0 &!ic! !as a !ig! percentage of et!nic -ussians% Ukrainian aut!orities regained control of a $uilding in 1!ark!i( on 8 April0 $ut !a(e stated t!at occupiers of a state security $uilding in Du!ansk are !olding J0 people !ostage and !a(e placed e3plosi(es in t!e $uilding% On 11 April0 at least se(en people &ere in6ured in clas!es $et&een pro--ussian and pro-Ukrainian protesters in Odessa% ,!e clas!es occurred outside a !otel &!ere one of t!e presidential candidates &as staying%

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+oncerns rose last &eek o(er t!e future of -ussian natural gas supply to :urope% On 10 April0 in a letter addressed to 18 leaders0 -ussian President .ladi"ir Putin &arned of t!e possi$ility of a cut-off of -ussian natural gas supply t!roug! Ukrainian pipelines to t!e continent if :uropean leaders did not !elp Ukraine s&iftly settle its gas de$t% According to -ussia0 Ukraine o&es H17 $illion in gas discounts and "ay !a(e incurred anot!er H18%4 $illion fine fro" t!e 2005 contract signed &it! -ussia% As in t!e 2005 political crisis0 -ussia is using gas a le(erage to influence t!e direction of t!e crisis in -ussia*s fa(our% ,!is &eek0 senior officials fro" -ussia0 t!e :uropean Union0 t!e United States and Ukraine &ill "eet to discuss t!e situation for t!e first ti"e since t!e $eginning of t!e crisis% Officials present at t!e talks &ill include t!e :uropean Union*s foreign policy c!ief0 +at!erine As!tonL t!e US Secretary of State Go!n 1erryL t!e -ussian foreign "inister0 Sergei Da(ro(L and t!e Ukrainian 4oreign 'inister0 Andrii Ces!c!ytsia% %ther de&elopments %n C April' the panish parliament &oted against a proposal to hold an independence referendum in the )atalonia autonomous community- )n Cece"$er 201@0 t!e +atalan President0 Artur 'as0 announced t!at a referendu" &ould $e !eld on 5 No(e"$er 2014 and t!at a /uestion !ad already $een c!osen% 'as proposed t!e referendu" to congress% Prior to t!e (oting0 t!e Spanis! Pri"e 'inister 'ariano -a6oy addressed congress0 appealing against t!e referendu" and stressing t!e i"portance of Spanis! unity% ,!e leader of t!e Socialist Party0 Alfredo Pere> -u$alca$a0 argued a re/uire"ent to respect Spanis! la&0 and t!at t!e referendu" could not $e decided solely $y +atalonia% )t is (ery likely t!at t!e referendu" &ill ne(ert!eless go a!ead as 'as !ad pre(iously asserted t!at t!e referendu" &ould $e !eld irrespecti(e of t!e (ote in congress% 2rench Prime Minister Manuel 6alls7s new go&ernment sur&i&ed a confidence &ote in parliament on C April' winning the backing of 5(9 MPs in the national assembly- ,!e (ote gi(es .alls t!e "andate for !is go(ern"ent and "inisters to carry out t!eir pledges% 4ollo&ing t!e (ote0 .alls laid out !is go(ern"ent*s political0 social and econo"ic plans for t!e ne3t t!ree years% ,!e pri"e "inister pro"ised to e3pand gro&t!0 to reduce t!e une"ploy"ent rate and to &in support for t!e go(ern"ent% .alls pledged t!at t!e go(ern"ent &ould pursue $udget responsi$ility rat!er t!an austerity "easures% .alls told 'Ps t!at additional $udget sa(ings &ould $e un(eiled in t!e su""er in order to furt!er reduce t!e pu$lic deficit% )n a recent report0 t!e :uropean +o""ission &arned t!e 4renc! go(ern"ent t!at it risked $eing una$le to reac! its $udget deficit reduction target if appropriate action &as not taken i""ediately% A car bomb eAploded outside the "reek )entral 4ank in Athens in the early hours of 1( April- ,!e e3plosion caused serious da"age to offices0 s!ops and cars surrounding t!e $ank% Docal aut!orities pre(ented any in6uries $y cordoning off t!e area follo&ing an anony"ous tip-off to t!e offices of local "edia &arning of a $o"$ containing around 70 kilogra"s of e3plosi(es% ,!e e3plosion ca"e on t!e sa"e day as reece returned to t!e international $ond "arkets for t!e first ti"e in four years and t!e day $efore t!e (isit of er"an +!ancellor Angela 'erkel% No group !as co"e for&ard to clai" responsi$ilityL !o&e(er0 police $elie(e t!at a left-&ing or anarc!ist guerrilla group are responsi$le%

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%n the radar European Union7s 2oreign Affairs )ouncil will be held in :uAembourg on 19!1< AprilAnti!austerity related protests and clashes are almost certain to continue in 3taly7s capital' *ome $9 April marks the anni&ersary of the DArmenian "enocide7' carried out $y Otto"an ,urks in 151B-1J during #orld #ar )% ; May marks the anni&ersary of &iolent clashes during a demonstration in 4olotnaya Euare in *ussia7s capital' Moscow' during $(1$ European Union MEP7s will debate *ussia7s pressure on Eastern Partnership countries and attempts to destabilise eastern Ukraine on 1J April and (ote on 17 April%

'iddle :ast
6iolence in 3raE increases in run up to election At least B0 soldiers and se(en ar"ed "en &ere killed on 10 April in t!e city of -a"adi0 &estern An$ar pro(ince0 )ra/% 4ig!ters $elonging to t!e )sla"ic State of )ra/ and t!e De(ant 9)S)D; !a(e fre/uently clas!ed &it! "ilitary forces in t!e Sunni-do"inated pro(ince t!is year0 and t!e al-?aeda linked group continues to !a(e so"e influence o(er areas of t!e pro(incial capital0 -a"adi0 and 4allu6a!% :lse&!ere in )ra/0 t&o car $o"$s clai"ed t!e li(es of at least 1@ people on t!e sa"e day in predo"inantly S!i*ite neig!$our!oods in Bag!dad% An$ar pro(ince !as slipped into c!aos t!is year due to t!e police re"o(al of anti-go(ern"ent protest groups outside t!e city of -a"adi in Ganuary0 follo&ing intelligence clai"ing t!at t!e ca"p &as ser(ing as !ead/uarters for t!e leaders!ip of )S)D% ,!e )S)D !as gained territorial control and influence in An$ar since t!e &it!dra&al of US troops and t!e out$reak of ci(il &ar in neig!$ouring Syria% 'oreo(er0 Sunni grie(ances against t!e S!i*ite led go(ern"ent !a(e $oosted recruit"ent for "ilitant groups% On a(erage0 An$ar pro(ince !as e3perienced at least 1B (iolent incidents per day $et&een Ganuary and 'arc! and so"e 4000000 people !a(e $een displaced so far t!is year% Parlia"entary elections are sc!eduled to take place on @0 April0 t!e first since US troops left )ra/ in 20110 and security re"ains a key issue% .oting is likely to $e se(erely affected in Sunni areas &!ere (iolence !as $een fre/uent0 and t!e process in An$ar pro(ince see"s unlikely to take place at t!is stage% :(en if polling stations are esta$lis!ed in An$ar0 turnout &ill $e lo& as "any !a(e fled t!e (iolence and ot!ers &ill $e dissuaded fro" taking part% Bo"$ings and attacks on pu$lic places are e3pected to increase in t!e run-up to t!e polls% %ther de&elopments ecurity forces arrested 15 members of a Femeni gang on B April in connection with a number of kidnappings targeting foreigners and businessmen- ,!e "ilitary !as carried out se(eral operations in response to t!e recent spate of !ig!-profile kidnappings in t!e country% Dast "ont!0 t&o UN &orkers &ere kidnapped and released un!ar"ed in Sanaa and t!ree foreigners &ere kidnapped in 4e$ruary% roups seeking eit!er ranso" or negotiation &it! t!e go(ern"ent regularly target foreigners% ,!e declining security situation in Ie"en is likely to continue as t!e go(ern"ent struggles to control (arious separatist "o(e"ents and al-?aeda in t!e Ara$ian Peninsula% Open Briefing | C

The United tates has named the Ansar 4ayt al!MaEdis group as a foreign terrorist organisation- ,!e group is &idely considered to $e :gypt*s "ost acti(e "ilitant organisation and !as clai"ed responsi$ility for se(eral !ig!-profile attacks t!roug!out t!e Sinai Peninsula and in +airo% 'ilitary infrastructure and personnel !a(e regularly $een targeted in operations% )n addition to a failed assassination atte"pt on :gypt*s interior "inister0 t!e group !as also conducted rocket attacks into )srael% 'ilitants !a(e carried out attacks across :gypt since t!e ousting of President 'o!a""ed 'orsi in Guly 201@0 and si"ilar incidents are likely to increase in t!e run-up to elections in 'ay% At least $< people were killed when two car bombs eAploded in the yrian city of /oms on ? April,!e $o"$s e3ploded !alf an !our apart in t!e 1ara" al-Du> district of t!e city causing &idespread da"age and in6uring 107 people% Syrian state tele(ision $la"ed t!e attack in t!e predo"inantly Ala&ite neig!$our!ood on re$el fig!ters0 t!oug! no group !as taken responsi$ility% ,!e conflict in Syria !as $eco"e increasingly dra&n out $et&een supporters of President Bas!ir al-Assad and t!e Sunni opposition groups opposed to !is rule% -e$el fig!ters !a(e co"e under increasing pressure as go(ern"ent troops0 $acked $y 2e>$olla! "ilitants0 !a(e ad(anced on strategic re$el strong!olds along t!e De$anese $order% %n the radar 1B April marks yrian 3ndependence .ay follo&ing t!e &it!dra&al of t!e last 4renc! troops in 154J% )onstruction on Egypt7s largest oil refinery is eApected to begin this week' to $e co"pleted $y 2017% ,!e refinery &ill reduce :gypt*s reliance on i"ports of crude oil and petroleu" products% The trial of three al!=a1eera @ournalists in Egypt has been ad@ourned yet again until $$ April,!e 6ournalists are accused of spreading false ne&s and pro(iding t!e outla&ed 'usli" Brot!er!ood &it! a pu$lic platfor"% Palestinian prisoners in 3sraeli @ails are to begin protests o(er )srael*s decision to scrap t!e latest release of prisoners agreed upon as part of peace talks% The first round of the presidential election will commence in Algeria on 17 April%

Polar regions
Nordic defence ministers form united front against *ussia,!e defence "inisters of )celand0 Cen"ark0 Nor&ay0 S&eden and 4inland "et in t!e to&n of ,ro"sM in Nor&ay*s far nort! on 8-5 April to discuss 6oint security concerns% t!e conference &as do"inated $y t!e /uestion of !o& t!e Nordic countries s!ould coordinate t!eir foreign policy to&ards -ussia in lig!t of continuing de(elop"ents in Ukraine% ,!e Nor&egian defence "inister0 )ne 'arie :riksen SMreide0 told 6ournalists in a su$se/uent press release t!at KNordic countries are united in conde"nation of -ussian action and (iolation of international la&*% ,!e "inisters discussed !o& to increase defence coordination $et&een t!e countries under t!e aegis of t&o international organisationsN NA,O0 of &!ic! only )celand0 Cen"ark and Nor&ay are "e"$ers0 and NO-C:4+O0 a regional defence organisation esta$lis!ed in 2005 to coordinate "ilitary cooperation across t!e Nordic states%

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-ussia*s aggression in Ukraine !as de(eloped alongside an increasingly $elligerent stance in t!e Arctic and Baltic regionsN nu"erous $o"$ing si"ulations &ere flo&n last year o(er 4inland and S&eden0 and t!e -ussian ar"ed forces !a(e reopened "ilitary $ases near t!e 4innis! $order% #!ile defence coordination is not!ing ne& a"ongst t!e Nordic states0 &!ose go(ern"ents !a(e an e3cellent track record of close and effecti(e cooperation0 -ussia*s increasing $elligerence to&ards its neig!$ours pro(ides a spur to t!is process% )t also c!allenges 4inland and S&eden*s stance to&ards NA,O0 &!ic! up to no& !as $een one of close partners!ip $ut not full "e"$ers!ip% Bot! Nor&ay and t!e United States !a(e repeated t!at t!e option of "e"$ers!ip is on t!e ta$le0 $ut 4inland and S&eden &ill !a(e to &eig! up t!e likely $enefits $y gauging t!e real le(el of t!reat fro" -ussia and t!e potential ad(erse reactions fro" 'osco& t!at suc! "e"$ers!ip &ould entail% Bot! countries !a(e ad(ocates for NA,O "e"$ers!ip in t!eir political and "ilitary esta$lis!"ents0 and &!ate(er decision t!eir go(ern"ents reac! &ill $e discussed at t!e upco"ing NA,O su""it in Septe"$er% )n recent &eeks0 all t!e fi(e Nordic states !a(e called off t!eir "ilitary cooperation &it! -ussia0 yet t!e unani"ous conde"nation relayed in SMreide*s press release is t!e strongest indication t!us far of t!e region*s stance to&ards 'osco&% ,!e logic of suc! a conde"nation &ould suggest t!at t!e prospect of NA,O "e"$ers!ip for 4inland and S&eden is $eco"ing "ore realistic% ,!is &eek0 for"er 4innis! president and No$el Peace Pri>e laureate 'artti A!tisaari $eca"e t!e latest in a long line of respected indi(iduals fro" t!e country*s "ilitary and political esta$lis!"ents to call for NA,O "e"$ers!ip% Iet esti"ating t!e likeli!ood of full NA,O "e"$ers!ip for S&eden and 4inland is still a "atter of guess&ork% ,ellingly0 a press release fro" t!e S&edis! 'inistry of Cefence pu$lis!ed after t!e "eeting in ,ro"sM0 referred to t!e possi$ility of NA,O in(ol(e"ent only in ter"s of considering Kpartners!ip issues*% %ther de&elopments *ussian paratroopers landed on a drifting ice floe in the Arctic %cean on C April for the first time in modern *ussian history- )n a training e3ercise "ore t!an 50 paratroopers fro" t!e )(ano(o-$ased 58t! Air$orne Ci(ision 6u"ped fro" an )lyus!in )l-7J to t!e drifting researc! station Barneo close to t!e Nort! Pole% ,!e e3ercise follo&s a si"ilar drill conducted t!ree &eeks ago &!en -ussia dropped @B0 paratroopers fro" t!e 58t! Air$orne Ci(ision o(er t!e far nort!ern Ne& Si$erian )slands0 off -ussia*s eastern arctic coast% )t also follo&s nu"erous state"ents fro" -ussian defence officials0 generals and President .ladi"ir Putin on t!e need to de(elop "ilitary capacity in t!e Arctic% 2inno!*ussian shipbuilders Arctech displayed an icebreaker built to a new inno&ati&e design in a demonstration in /elsinki hipyard on ? April- ,!e 4innis!-designed (essel0 launc!ed as t!e Baltika0 features an asy""etrical !ull &!ic! allo&s it to $reak ice &it! its $o& positioned at a @0 degree angle fro" t!e pat! of tra(el0 resulting in t!e opening of a "uc! &ider ice-free pat!% Breaking ice in t!is &ay is also reported to $e "ore cost effecti(e% ,!e design also features a !elipad0 &!ic! "akes it suita$le for searc! and rescue operations and oil spill clean-ups% ,!e Baltika &ill $e deployed in t!e ulf of 4inland $y t!e end of t!e spring% Arctec! already !a(e orders for t&o "ore s!ips of t!e sa"e design0 one eac! for t!e -ussian and 4innis! "arkets%

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A test well drilled in the =ohan )astberg field off the far!northern coast of Norway has yielded only non!commercial traces of gas- ,!e &ell !as no& $een per"anently plugged and a$andoned% ,!e test &ell is t!e latest in a series of failed atte"pts to find enoug! oil to secure t!e co""ercial de(elop"ent of t!e Go!an +ast$erg field% ,!e pace at &!ic! t!e e3tracti(e industries de(elop Arctic fields is a "a6or political0 security and en(iron"ental concern in t!e Polar regions0 &!ere t!e a"$itions of national go(ern"ents0 international energy co"panies and en(iron"ental N Os opposed to suc! de(elop"ent regularly clas!% %n the radar A conference on the theme of DNa&igating the %il 2rontier7 will be held in #ashington .)' United tates' on 21 April% The giant *ussian icebreaker Famal is heading towards the 0ara ea' its first stop in one of t!e largest -ussian scientific e3peditions since t!e so(iet period% "a1prom plans to make the first shipment of oil from its contro&ersial Prira1lomnaya platform in late April-

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www-bradburys-co-uk

Open Briefing is t!e &orld*s first ci(il society intelligence agency% #e produce actiona$le and predicti(e intelligence on defence0 security and foreign policy "atters% #e tell you &!at !as !appened and &!at is likely to !appen ne3t% 'ost i"portantly0 &e tell you &!y% #e do t!is so t!at $etter infor"ed citi>ens can "ore effecti(ely engage in peace and security de$ates and ci(il society organisations can "ake t!e rig!t ad(ocacy c!oices% ,oget!er0 &e can influence positi(e policy decisions $y our go(ern"ents% Open Briefing is a $old and a"$itious not-for-profit social enterprise% #e are a uni/ue colla$oration of intelligence0 "ilitary0 la& enforce"ent and go(ern"ent professionals fro" around t!e &orld% +!allenge t!e status /uo% ,ake intelligence into your o&n !ands% www-openbriefing-org

Analysts: +!ris A$$ott0 'att!e& +ouillard0 Cerek +rystal0 ,ancrOde 4euillade0 Daura 2art"ann0 Patrick Se&ell0 Caniel ,aylor and +laudia #agner%

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