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Introduction
We will discuss methodologies and techniques that are necessary for the proper project management when project resources are limited. And to my knowledge they are always limited. Please feel free to ask questions any time during my presentation. We shall learn from each other and more discussions create more understanding.
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Introduction
My name is Vladimir Liberzon. I am a head of the leading Russian project management consulting company that:
Implements project management systems at the different enterprises, Manages projects for our customers, Provides project management training, Develops the most powerful project management software Spider Project.
Topics of Discussion
We will discuss:
Organizing data for the proper project computer simulation and corporate resource management, Resource constrained scheduling and Resource Critical Path, Project Success Criteria, Project Risk Simulation, Success Driven Project Management.
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Organizing data
It is Data Structure that defines the possibilities of simulating the situations occurring in the actual projects. The main elements of a project computer model are project activities, activity dependencies, project resources and their assignments, project calendars, costs, and Work, Resource and Cost Breakdown Structures. We will discuss the main elements of Data Structure that are vital for understanding the specific approaches to project simulation.
Activities
In the majority of well-known PM software packages project activities are characterized by their duration. Besides duration, it is frequently necessary to set the activitys physical volume of work. Activity volume can be measured in meters, tons, etc., planned work hours, percents or any other units.
Activities
Activity volume is often used as an initial activity information instead of duration. If assigned resource productivity is defined in volume units per hour then activity duration may be calculated during project scheduling. Unlike activity duration activity volume does not depend on assigned resources.
Dependencies
Sometimes it is necessary to set more than one link between activities. Besides the positive and negative time lags, it is useful to set volume lags, which is preferable in many cases. The problem with time lags is that if the preceding work has started but is executed slower than it was planned, the time lag may be satisfied earlier than the planned volume of work is fulfilled. The time lags call for special attention and regular adjustments.
Resources
In most PM software packages, both are set together, differing only in setting the costs of their use - per work hour or per unit. Thus you can not define that renewable resource spends materials during the work.
Complex Resources
Besides the individual resources one may set resource crews (we call them multiresources) and resource skills (roles). Multi-resources are the settled groups of resources working together (e.g. a team, a crew, a car with a driver, etc.). Multi-resource can be assigned to activity which means assignment of all resources comprising the multi-resource.
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Resource Skills
Resources sharing the same skills comprise Resource Assignment Pools. Resources belonging to the same Pool are interchangeable though individuals in a pool may have different productivities performing the same activities.
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Calendars
The calendars can be set for all activities, resources and time lags. Availability of all these calendars is important for the proper project simulation.
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Assignments
Assigning resources to activities implies the notion of a team - a group of resources working on an activity together. The team can include individual resources, multiresources and pools. If the activitys initial information is work volume, one should set the productivity of at least one of assigned resources, to enable the calculation of the work duration. It should be noted that when the pools are assigned, activity duration can be calculated only in the process of scheduling.
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Assignments
In assigning resource assignment pool, one should either set a total number of pool resources necessary for the execution of activity or their aggregate productivity. Example: a pool consists of the tip lorries (dump trucks) with different carrying capacity. One may set a number of lorries necessary for the execution of this activity or the aggregate productivity (dependent on capacity) of assigned tip lorries.
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Assignments
If more than one team is assigned then resources belonging with the different teams work on an activity independently of each other. One may set the volumes or duration of work for each team, but it is not obligatory. When the volume or duration of assignment are not defined the team will continue working until the work on the activity is completed. Such approach allows to simulate the shift work efficiently. 15
Assignments
Resources can be assigned to activities part time. In this case one shall set percentage of assigned
resources utilization together with resource quantity (not just the total percentage calculated
by multiplying percents and quantities, that leaves the necessary amount of resources unclear - two resource units with 50% utilization are equivalent to one resource unit used to its full capacity).
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Assignments
Another useful option variable resource assignments. Example:
You may define that the number of resources that may be used at some work is between 2 and 4, and their workload should be not less than 40% and not more than 80%. In this case activity will start if two units of assigned resource are available not less than 40% of their time, and the team may be increased if additional resources become available. Finishing other assignments resources may apply more of their time to the specified 17 assignment but not more than 80%.
Assignments
Resources can consume materials in the process of their work, Besides materials can be assigned to activities or resource assignments directly. In some projects it is necessary to simulate not only material consumption but also production of resources and materials on activities and assignments.
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Cost
Usually it is not enough just to define activity and resource costs. It is necessary to know project expenses and revenues, what will be spent on wages, on machinery and equipment, on taxes, etc. Sometimes it is necessary to allow for multiple currencies. So there is a need to define and assign cost components. Besides setting the cost of an hour of renewable resource work and the cost of material unit, it is necessary to be able to set the cost directly for 19 activities and assignments.
Cost
People may be paid not only for the hours spent on the task but also by the quantity of work they have done. It means that labor resource cost that is usually defined by the cost of work hour is not enough. Frequently it is necessary to set costs for resource assignments (fixed or per unit of volume). Cost of assignment is one example of setting contract costs for the project.
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Centers
Setting costs for the components of the project expenses, materials and resources you may need to get different reports on the groups of cost components, materials and resources. That is why it is necessary to define Cost, Material and Resource Breakdown Structures or Centers. Material center can include any group of materials. Resource center can include any group of resources. Cost center includes selected cost components. 21
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Project Archives
Another feature that is necessary for the proper project control is an ability to store project history. The planners should be able to store project versions and to analyze the progress in project execution, comparing current project schedule not only with the baseline but with any other previous version too. This possibility enables to assess the progress in project execution for the last week, last month, last year, compared to the baseline, etc.
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Fragnet Library
Another necessary thing to create a library of typical project fragnets. Project fragnets usually describe typical processes and technologies that are used more than once. Creating project computer models using the corporate library of typical fragnets will help to avoid inconsistencies and assures that the project model follows corporate standards.
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Fragnet Library
A library of typical fragments is a very important tool for the development of corporate culture and management standards. An interesting side effect of the use of typical fragnets library is the technology of work breakdown structure development not top-down, as usual, but bottom-up. In such structure typical fragments serve as work packages. Since we commonly use several Work breakdown structures top-down and bottom-up technologies are used in parallel, complementing 28 each other.
The problems solved with the help of project management software usually include:
Project scheduling without the limitations of resources taken into the consideration, Project resource constrained scheduling (resource leveling), Determination of critical path and time float for project activities, Determination of the project requirements for finance, materials and equipment for any time 29 period,
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MS Project Example
At the next slide you may find MS Project resource constrained schedule for the same project. Please pay attention to the total slack figures and which activities were considered as critical. Unfortunately resource constrained floats are not calculated not only by MS Project but by other popular PM software as well.
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MS Project Example
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Risk Simulation
Our experience of project planning shows that the probability of successful implementation of deterministic project schedules and budgets is very low. Therefore project planning technology should always include risk simulation to produce reliable results. Risk simulation may be based on Monte Carlo simulation or use three scenarios approach that will be described further.
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Risk Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation is very time consuming and not practical for the large projects. Current practice of its implementation mostly do not consider correlation between activity duration and cost estimates that exists if activities are performed by the same resources, do not consider risk events that may change a set of project activities.
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Risk Simulation
Even if everything is properly simulated the number of necessary iterations is too high for receiving reliable results in the reasonable time. A project planner may be happy with the probability estimates that has plus or minus 10% accuracy but only if the error will be stable. If it may change from one calculation to another then these estimates can not be used as performance management tool.
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Lets create a table with the following data: P - Probability of project success M - Mean profit from the single project N - Number of expected customers T - Expected total profit
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2000
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40000
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Success Probabilities
In this case it is necessary to calculate the probabilities of meeting required project targets. If they are reasonable then they may be accepted. Probabilities to meet approved project targets we call Success Probabilities.
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Baseline
Target dates do not belong to any schedule. Usually they are between most probable and pessimistic dates. A set of target dates and costs (analogue of milestone schedule) is the real project baseline. But baseline schedule does not exist! A schedule that should be used for setting tasks for project implementers is optimistic.
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Critical Schedule
Project planner obtains not only the set of target dates but also a critical schedule a project schedule calculated backward from target dates. Usually this schedule is based on most probable estimates of activity durations and the difference between current and critical dates shows current schedule contingency reserves (buffers). At the next slide critical schedule is shown in blue.
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Buffers
There are time, cost and material buffers that show contingency reserves not only for a project as a whole (analogue of Critical Chain project buffer) but also for any activity in the optimistic project schedule. Time buffer for activity is defined as the difference between activity starts (finishes) in the current and critical schedules. During project execution it is necessary to estimate if these buffers are properly utilized.
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If project performance is estimated by success probability trends then project managers are encouraged to resolve uncertainties ASAP
This can increase success probabilities even with activity finish delays & cost overruns.
Postponing problem activities leads to negative trends in success probabilities. This attribute of success probability trends is especially useful in new product development project management.
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Project Budgets
The first project budget is the optimistic budget that is set as a target for the project team. The second one is the budget of the project management team that includes approved contingency reserves. The third budget includes management reserves and may be called executive budget. And at last the project may have contract cost that includes profit.
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Project Budgets
Optimistic budget has zero success probability. As for others it is useful to know what is going on with the probabilities to meet project management team budget, executive budget and contract cost.
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Critical Chain
You may notice that the approaches to the project management discussed today are similar to those that are used in Critical Chain Project Management. I do not see the difference between Resource Critical Path and Critical Chain except I have never met the description of the Critical Chain calculation.
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Critical Chain
Both the SDPM and the Critical Chain theories recommend project managers to use optimistic estimates of the project data to set the tasks for the project manpower and to control contingency and management reserves. SDPM also offers a technique for calculating necessary contingency reserves, while CCPM suggests to use qualitative estimates.
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Critical Chain
Unlike Critical Chain theory SDPM approach states that: RCP can change during the project execution, multitasking is sometimes necessary, and critical (drum) resources can be different at the different stages of the project life cycle.
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Critical Path
RCP and classical Critical Path are the same if project resources are unlimited. If project resources are limited then the classical Critical Path is useless and total floats calculated without considering resource limitations are not feasible. Really critical activities belong to Resource Critical Path and resource constrained floats show real activity time reserves.
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Conclusions
Resource Limited Project Management requires implementing special techniques that include:
Organizing data in a way that supports proper resource work simulation and application of corporate norms and standards. Creating a set of reference-books and a fragnets library that are obligatory for creating project computer models.
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Conclusions
Calculating Resource Critical Path and resource constrained floats. Risk assessment and simulation. Defining target dates and costs (and corresponding contingency reserves) that may be achieved with reasonable probability. Recalculating the current probabilities of meeting project targets during project execution and analyzing success probability trends. Applying corrective actions if these trends are negative. 78
Thank you
Thank you for your participation. I am looking forward to your feedback and comments. My E-mail: spider@mail.cnt.ru
Vladimir Liberzon
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