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Brett Favre returns

The great people of Green Bay are a forgiving lot. Trust me, I know them very well. But, cross them with a move to a rival and watch the green and gold faithful turn on Favre quicker than you can say “can Ihave the red sauce with my brat?”. With Favre and the Vikings inLambeau for the first time since #4 started wearing purple and gold,expect the, well, expect the unexpected.

Hey Brett, suck my icicles!

NFL SECTION BY

LANCE ZIERLEIN



WEEK 8

Houston (4-3) vs. Buffalo (2-4)

Texans - 23 vs. Bills - 20

November 1, 2009 - CBS 12 PM CST

t2009 Ranking79.1 ypg

-

30thRun Offense111.9 ypg

-

15th 285.6 ypg

-

3rdPass Offense161.6 ypg

-

28th 23.9 ppg

-

13thScoring Offense16.1 ppg

-

24th 115.6 ypg

-

21stRun Defense172.4 ypg

-

32nd228.4 ypg

-

18thPass Defense190.4 ypg

-

10th 22.6 ppg

-

20thScoring Defense19.7 ppg

-

13th +3

-

9thTO Margin+2

-

12th

When the Texans have the ball...

The Texans had great success against the 49'ers when they went with their play

-

action game on first down as they connected on 4 of 5 passes for 130 yards and a TD.

The problem against the Billsis that they are likely to see a much tougher pass defense that is geared towards taking away the big play. The Billshad a stretch of four straight games where they allowed 156 or less total passing yards. Then again, I probably shouldmention that during that same four game stretch, they allowed 222, 250, 171 and 318 yards rushing. If the Texans can'trun it against the Bills who are giving up 171 yards per game and 5.3 ypc, then they simply aren't going to be able to runit this year. Look for more ground attack and a little less air attack this week.

When the Texans have the ball...

The Bills offense hasbeen one of the most disappointing sides of the ball for any team in the NFL. With Trent Edwards expected to show growth and with Terrell Owens added to Lee Evans and a crop of talented, young

WRs, everyone thought the Bills would pound Marshawn Lynch and light it up over the top with Owens and Evans but that

hasn't happened. The Billpassing game is an abomination and they are unlikely to get it going against the Texans. What the Texans will see is a Billsoffense that plans on running the football, but that is mucheasier said than done these days with the Texans limiting thelast three teams they've faced to less than 60 yards rushing.

QB Edwards is back at practice

(

concussion

)

and might goagainst the Texans.

Conclusion:

This feels like a trap game so look out. The Bills passing game has been so bad that it is borderlineunbelievable based on the talent that they have at the skill positions. If the Texans make the Bills dink and dumptheir way down the field, it is unlikely that the Bills will be able to sustain many drives but the Texans cannot let theBills hit the big plays on them. Look for the Texans to win a close one and look for the running game to get better.

Vegas Line: HOU -3.5 / 41.5

2009 ATS Record

4

-

2

-

1

2009 Over/Under

2

-

4

-

0

Last 5 Games

10/25 W, San Fran. 24

-

2110/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28

-

1710/11 L, @ Arizona 21

-

2810/4 W, Oakland 29

-

6 9/27 L, Jacksonville 24

-

31

2009 ATS Record

4

-

3

-

0

2009 Over/Under

3

-

4

-

0

Last 5 Games

10/25 W, @ Carolina 20

-

910/18 W, @ NY Jets 16

-

1310/11 L, Cleveland 3

-

6 10/4 L, @ Miami 10

-

38 9/27 L, New Orleans 7

-

27

Last Meeting: Buffalo- 24 vs. Houston - 21 (11/19/2006)

Fantasy Report

Steve Slaton

, Texans RB

-

Despite the fumblelast week, the Texans had to be excited to

seeSlaton get in the endzone twice and this is a goodmatchup for him.

Marshawn Lynch

, Bills RB

- The Texans havedone a very good job against the run recentlyand Lynch can't be considered anything morethan an average RB2 here.

Minnesota (6-1) vs. Green Bay (4-2)

Packers - 28 vs. Vikings - 21

November 1, 2009 - FOX 3:15 PM CST

t2009 Ranking119.9 ypg

-

12thRun Offense118.0 ypg

-

13th 233.7 ypg

-

13thPass Offense258.3 ypg

-

10th 29.4 ppg

-

3rdScoring Offense26.8 ppg

-

8th 95.4 ypg

-

10thRun Defense97.5 ypg

-

12th 234.6 ypg

-

20thPass Defense174.0 ypg

-

4th 21.1 ppg

-

17thScoring Defense16.0 ppg

-

5th +7

-

Tied 5thTO Margin+10

-

2nd

When the Vikings have the ball...

In their last matchup, Brett Favre played about as well as I've seen him play all year and as well as I've seen him play in the last couple of years. The Vikings are still going to be a run first team butit isn't like they have completely dominated teams with their rushing attack. Instead, HC Childress has done a very nice job of getting rookie WR Harvin involved in the offense and getting him his fair share of touches while Favre hasstarted to look the way of WR Rice more and more. Last time out the Packers stacked the line of scrimmage anddared Favre to beat them and he did. My guess is that they are going to do more of the same this time but with a brand new set of blitz packages and maybe a few that they saw from the Steelers last weekend.

When the Packers have the ball...

The offensive linehasn't been up to par for the Packers this year but they showed signs of turning it around last. Before anyone just writes off Ryan Grant and the running game this week sincethey are playing the Vikings, keep in mind that the Steelersaveraged over 5 ypc and I think the Packers have a chance torun the ball with some success if they do it out of 3 and 4WR sets that forces the Vikings into nickel situations. QBRodgers will attack the Packers with much more confidencethan he showed in week 1 and I'm guessing the Packers arebetter prepared to handle the onslaught of Jared Allen thistime around. With Vikings CB Winfield out, Rodgers shouldbe able to put significant pressure on the Vikings secondary.

Conclusion:

The last meeting was all about the terrific play of Brett Favre and Jared Allen. I'm looking for a potential revenge game for the ages here. Favre back in Lambeau is going to cause a stir with the fans, but the Packerplayers have probably been chomping at the bit to to get back at the Vikings and play with more confidence on bothsides of the ball than they showed in the first meeting.

Vegas Line: GB -3 / 47

2009 ATS Record

4

-

3

-

0

2009 Over/Under

5

-

2

-

0

Last 5 Games

10/25 L, @ Pittsburgh 17

-

2710/18 W, Baltimore 33

-

3110/11 W, @ St. Louis 38

-

1010/5 W, Green Bay 30

-

23 9/27 W, San Fran. 27

-

24

2009 ATS Record

4

-

2

-

0

2009 Over/Under

3

-

3

-

0

Last 5 Games

10/25 W, @ Cleveland 31

-

310/18 W, Detroit 26

-

010/05 L, @ Minnesota 23

-

30 9/27 W, @ St. Louis 36

-

17 9/20 L, Cincinnati 24

-

31

Last Meeting: Minnesota - 30 vs. Green Bay - 23 (10/5/2009)

Fantasy Report

Percy Harvin

, Vikings WR

-

Harvin

hasn't been ahuge fantasy steal, but he has been fairly steadyand should be considered in a flex role this week.

Greg Jennings

,

Packers WR

- With CB Winfieldout, Jennings should finally find an opportunity tocut it loose and produce the results that ownershave been looking for.

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