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SCB_041991

SCB_041991

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April
 1991 / Volume 71
 Number
SURVEY
 OF
 CURRENT
 BUSINESS
U.S. Department of Commerce
/
 Secretary
Economics and
 Statistics
 Administration
Michael
 R;
 Parby
 /
 &nder
 Secretary
 for
Meonornic
 Affairs
 and Administrator
Bureau
 of
 Economic Analysis
Allan H,
 Young^
 /
Dir&<etoi*
Carol
 &;
 Carson
 I^Deyuty DirectorManaging
 Mditor:
 Ljeland £*
 Scott
Publication
 Staff:
 W.
 Ronnie
 foster,
M,
 Gretchen
 Oibsoi^E^^
Donald
 J.
 Pirscibalk
StmyiY
 OP
 GtHHffiNT
 BUSINESS*
 Published
monthly
 by
 the
 Bwreaiiof Economic
 Analysis
 of
 the
U.S.
 Department
 of
 Commerce
 Editorial
 corre-spondence
 should
 be
 addressed to
 the Editor-in-
Chief>
 Stm\^rr
 OF
 GimBfeNT
 BUSINESS,
 Btireau
 of
 Eco-
nomic
 Analysis,
TJ.SL
 Department
 
Commerce,
Washington, i)C
 20230^
Annual
 subscription:
 Second-class mail
$23.00 domestic, $28.75
 foreign;
 first-class mail
$52.00.
 Single
 copy*-~$6.§0
 domestic,
 $8*13 foreign.
Mail
 subscription orders
 and
 address changes
 to
the
 Superintendent
 of
 Docwi&ents^lF.S, Oovern-
ment
 Printing
 OfSee,
 Washington,^DC
 20402.
Make
 checks
 payable
 to
 tlje
 Superintendent
 of
Documents.
Second-class postage paid
 at
 Washington, DC
and
 at
 additional mailing
 offices.
 (USFS
 3S7-790)»
The
 Secretary
 of Commerce
 has
 determined
that
 the publication
 of
 this
 periodical
 is necessary
in th0
 tran^jactiort
 of
 tfe
 public
 business
 required
by
 law of
 this
 Department,
1
 Business Situation
4 Corporate
 Profits
 and Property
 Income
 in 1990
8
 National Income
 and
 Product
 Accounts
8 Selected
 NIPA
 Tables
22
 NIPA
 Charts
25
 Gross
 National Product
 by
 Industry,
 1987-89
28
 Regional Perspectives
28
 Personal
 Income
 by
 Region,
 Fourth Quarter
 1990
30
 State
 Personal
 Income,
 Fourth
 Quarter
 1990,
 andPer
 Capita
 Personal
 Income,
 199035
 County
 and
 Metropolitan
 Area
 Personal
 Income,
 1987-89
C-pages:
 Business
 Cycle
 Indicators
(See
 page C-l
 for
 contents)
S-pages:
 Current Business Statistics
(See
 page S-36
 for
 contents
 and
 subject index)
Inside
 back
 cover: BEA Information
NOTE.—This
 issue
 of
 tlifc
 SWKVET
 went
 to
 tto
 printer
 nm
 May 6,1901*It
 incorporates
 data
 from
 the following
 monthly
 BEA
 news
 releases:
Gross
 National^
 Product
 (Apr.^6)>
Persona
Income
 and^
 Outlaws
 (Apr*
 29),
 and
Composite
 Itidexes
 of Xfeadiiig,
 Coincident, and Lagging
Indicators
 (May
 1),
 
the
 BUSINESS SITUATION
-[NATIONAL
 income
 and
 product
 ac-
count
 (NIPA)
 estimates
 for the first
quarter
 of 1991 paint a picture of theU.S. economy in recession. Real GNP
declined
 2.8 percent
 after
 declining 1.6percent in the fourth quarter of 1990,and real gross domestic purchases de-
clined
 3.8 percent after declining 5.1percent (chart
 I).
1
 The
 last
 time
 either
of
 these
 aggregates registered
 two
 con-secutive quarterly declines
 was in the
recession of
 1981-82.
The
 recession's
 impact is also appar-ent in NIPA
 estimates
 of income. Per-sonal income
 posted
 its
 smallest
 quar-
terly
 increase since the
 1973—75
 reces-sion, and
 real
 disposable personal in-
come
 declined
 for the
 third
 consecutive
quarter.
NOTE.—Daniel
 Larkins
 of the
 Current Business
Analysis
 Division was
 primarily responsible
 for
preparing
 this article,
 with
 contributions
 from
Larry
 R. Moran, Ralph
 W
 Morris,
 and Mira A.
Piplani.
1. The regularly
 featured
 estimate
 of
 real
 GNP is
based
 on
 1982
 weights. An
 alternative estimate
 of
 real
GNP growth based
 on
 more
 current
 weights
 can be
 cal-culated
 using the
 change
 in the
 chain price index, which
is
 published
 in
 table
 8.1 of
 the
 "Selected
 NIPA
 Tables.'This
 alternative
 measure
 declined
 2.4 percent in the
first
 quarter
 after declining
 2.6 percent in the
 fourth
Growth
 of
 real
 GNP in
 1987
 dollars, another
 measurebased
 on
 more
 current
 weights, will
 be
 published
 in
"Reconciliation
 and
 Other Special
 Tables" in the May
SURVEY
 OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
Inflation as
 measured
 by the
 (fixed-
weight) price index
 for
 gross
 domestic
purchases slowed to 3.6 percent in thefirst
 quarter
 from
 6.3 percent in the
fourth.
 However,
 the
 price index
 for
gross domestic purchases less
 food
 andenergy—which is
 frequently used
 as an
estimate
 of
 the
 underlying
 rate
 of
 infla-
tion in the
 economy—accelerated
 to a5.5-percent increase
 from
 a
 3.9-percentincrease; about one-third
 of the
 accel-
eration reflected
 a pay
 raise
 for
 Federalmilitary and civilian personnel.The declines in GNP in both the
fourth and first
 quarters
 were more
than
 accounted
 for by
 drops
 in
 motorvehicle
 and
 construction output.
 In
percentage terms, the weakness in mo-tor vehicle output was especially pro-
nounced;
 output declined 50.7 percentin the fourth quarter and 42.4 per-cent in the first. Growth of GNP less
motor
 vehicles and construction wasmoderate (2.5 percent) in the
 fourth
quarter
 and weak (0.8 percent) in thefirst (table I).
2
CHART 1
2. The
 output
 of
 the
 motor vehicle
 industry
 is
 derivedby summing
 auto
 output (table 1.18)
 and
 truck output
(table
 1.20).
 The
 output
 of the
 construction
 industry
may
 be
 approximated
 by
 "structures,"
 shown
 in
 table
1.4 of the
 "Selected NIPA Tables." This approximationexcludes maintenance
 and repair
 construction
 and in-
cludes brokers' commissions on the
 sale
 of
 structures
as
 well
 as
 mining exploration, shafts, arid wells; nev-
ertheless,
 it
 probably
 tracks
 movements
 in
 construction
output
 closely. The value of motor vehicle and con-struction output includes
 the
 value
 of
 inputs, such
 as
steel,
 obtained
 from
 other
 industries
 and
 from
 foreign
suppliers
 as
 imports.
Looking
 Ahead...
 National Income
 and
 Product
 Accounts
 Revision.
 The
 next comprehen-sive,
 or
 benchmark, revision
 of the
 national
 income
 and
 product accounts
 is
scheduled
 for
 release
 in
 November
 1991
 (see
 the box on page 7).
 Local
 Area
 Personal Income.
 A five-volume
 publication containing
 an-
nual estimates
 of
 personal income
 for
 1984-89
 and
 supporting detail
 for
metropolitan
 areas
 and
 counties will
 be
 available
 in
 August
 from
 the
 U.S.Government
 Printing
 Office.
 Order information will appear
 in an
 upcomingissue
 of the
 SURVEY.
 (For information
 on how to
 obtain these estimates
 in
other formats,
 see the box on
 page 37.)
Selected Measures:Change from Preceding Quarter
Percent
10
-5
-10
10
REAL
 GNP
Iliil
-5
REAL GROSS
 DOMESTIC PURCHASES
lli.ii
GNP
 PRICE INDEX (FIXED WEIGHTS)
GROSS
 DOMESTIC PURCHASES PRICE INDEX(FIXED
 WEIGHTS)
1988198919901991
Note.—Percent change at annual rate from preceding quarter;based on seasonally adjusted estimates.U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
 91

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