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Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - April

Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - April

Ratings: (0)|Views: 38|Likes:
Published by Alexander Gloy
Based on 13 different macro-economic indicators we calculate the likelihood of the US economy being in a recession. This likelihood is currently quite small (4%). However, we point out dangerously slow growth in real retail sales and disposable income. Retail sales growth is being supported mainly by auto sales (most of which are financed thanks to lax underwriting standards and low interest rates).
We describe exactly how we arrive at our conclusions and provide many charts for visualization.
Based on 13 different macro-economic indicators we calculate the likelihood of the US economy being in a recession. This likelihood is currently quite small (4%). However, we point out dangerously slow growth in real retail sales and disposable income. Retail sales growth is being supported mainly by auto sales (most of which are financed thanks to lax underwriting standards and low interest rates).
We describe exactly how we arrive at our conclusions and provide many charts for visualization.

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Categories:Types, Presentations
Published by: Alexander Gloy on Apr 22, 2014
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

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02/04/2015

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L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 A󰁰󰁲󰁩󰁬 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 1
󰁍󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 󰁒󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴
󰁅󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁉󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 󰁕󰁓󰁁
󰁁󰁰󰁲󰁩󰁬 󰀲󰀰󰀱󰀴
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 A󰁰󰁲󰁩󰁬 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 2 C󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁓󰁵󰁭󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁹 ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 P󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 I󰁮󰁤󰁥󰁸........................................................................................................ 4 I󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................................. 5 F󰁥󰁤 F󰁵󰁮󰁤󰁳 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................................................................ 10 C󰁲󰁵󰁤󰁥 O󰁩󰁬 ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: B󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 P󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳 ................................................................................................................... 12 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 ................................................................................................................ 13 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: E󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁩󰁳󰁨󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁵󰁳 H󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁨󰁯󰁬󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................. 14 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: J󰁯󰁢󰁳 G󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁤/L󰁯󰁳󰁴 .................................................................................................................. 15 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: I󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁡󰁮󰁤 R󰁥󰁶󰁩󰁳󰁥󰁤 N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 .................................................................................. 16 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: F󰁵󰁬󰁬 󰁔󰁩󰁭󰁥 ............................................................................................................................... 17 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: P󰁯󰁰󰁵󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮, L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥, E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁥󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................... 18 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 P󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁰󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................. 19 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: 󰁕󰁮󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴..................................................................................................................... 20 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 ............................................................................................................................ 21 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 D󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 .......................................................................................................... 22 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 󰁓󰁰󰁥󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 ................................................................................................................ 23 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: 󰁕󰁮󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁯󰁦 M󰁩󰁣󰁨󰁩󰁧󰁡󰁮 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................... 24 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥 B󰁯󰁡󰁲󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ...................................................................................... 25 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: 󰁔󰁯󰁴󰁡󰁬 O󰁵󰁴󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 ............................................................................................................................ 26 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: B󰁡󰁮󰁫 L󰁯󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 L󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................................................... 27 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: N󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁬 .................................................................................................................................. 28 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 ......................................................................................................................................... 29 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰀭󰁣󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 ........................................................................................................................ 30 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: E󰁸󰁣󰁬󰁵󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 A󰁵󰁴󰁯󰁳 ...................................................................................................................... 31 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: O󰁮󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥...................................................................................................................................... 32 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: H󰁯󰁵󰁲󰁳 󰁗󰁯󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 33 󰁗󰁥󰁥󰁫󰁬󰁹 E󰁡󰁲󰁮󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁳 .......................................................................................................................................... 34 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳 ............................................................................................................................... 35 O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳: C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡󰁬 G󰁯󰁯󰁤󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 36 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: 󰁓󰁵󰁰󰁰󰁬󰁩󰁥󰁲 D󰁥󰁬󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳 ............................................................................................................ 37 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................. 38 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮...................................................................................................................................... 39 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: M󰁩󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 40 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: G󰁡󰁳󰁯󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 ...................................................................................................... 41 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 D󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁰󰁥󰁲 C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 .............................................................................................. 42 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 & P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁥󰁲 P󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁥󰁳....................................................................................................... 43 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 E󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 44
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 A󰁰󰁲󰁩󰁬 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 3
Summary
󰁔󰁨󰁥 "G󰁯󰁯󰁤":
 
󰁓󰁬󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴 󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮 󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨
 
󰁓󰁬󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴 󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨
 
󰁕󰁰󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁤󰁳 󰁲󰁥󰁶󰁩󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 F󰁥󰁢󰁲󰁵󰁡󰁲󰁹 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁢󰁹 $1.8󰁢󰁮
 
I󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 󰁳󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
󰁓󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁮󰁧 󰁡󰁵󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁩󰁮 M󰁡󰁲󰁣󰁨 (+9% 󰁹󰁯󰁹 󰁡󰁦󰁴󰁥󰁲 +4% 󰁩󰁮 F󰁥󰁢󰁲󰁵󰁡󰁲󰁹)
 
0.4 󰁰󰁯󰁩󰁮󰁴 󰁢󰁯󰁵󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁩󰁮 󰁭󰁥󰁮'󰁳 󰁬󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁰󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁔󰁨󰁥 "B󰁡󰁤":
 
F󰁵󰁲󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁤󰁲󰁯󰁰 󰁩󰁮 󰁳󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁬󰁥󰀭󰁦󰁡󰁭󰁩󰁬󰁹 󰁢󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳
 
F󰁵󰁲󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁳󰁬󰁯󰁷󰀭󰁤󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁩󰁮 󰁯󰁮󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁴󰁯 6% (󰁷󰁡󰁳 13% 󰁡 󰁹󰁥󰁡󰁲 󰁡󰁧󰁯)
 
󰁔󰁩󰁭󰁩󰁤 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁤󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 (+0.7%)
󰁃󰁏󰁎󰁃󰁌󰁕󰁓󰁉󰁏󰁎󰀺
󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁩󰁳 󰁬󰁯󰁷. H󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲, 󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁷󰁥󰁡󰁫. R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁩󰁳 󰁳󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁤󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁴󰁯 󰁢󰁯󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁲󰁹 󰁬󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁳. 󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁴󰁨󰁥 F󰁥󰁤 󰁤󰁯 󰁩󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁹 󰁲󰁥󰀭󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁤 󰁡 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮? I󰁴'󰁳 󰁢󰁡󰁬󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁳󰁨󰁥󰁥󰁴 󰁡󰁬󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁤󰁹 󰁥󰁸󰁣󰁥󰁥󰁤󰁳 $4 󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁬󰁬󰁩󰁯󰁮, 󰁯󰁲 25% 󰁯󰁦 GDP.

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