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The Kruger Park e-Times is published regularly to keep you updated onconservation, science, sustainable development and tourism issues inand around South Africa’s national parks, transfrontier parks and otherenvironmental hotspots. Send your comments and contributions to:krugerparktimes@vectorbb.co.za
C
onservation biologists are set-ting their minimum popula-tion size targets too low to pre- vent extinction.That’s according to a new study by Uni- versity of Adelaide and Macquarie Univer-sity scientists which has shown that popula-tions of endangered species are unlikely topersist in the face of global climate changeand habitat loss unless they number around5000 mature individuals or more.
The ndings have been published online
in a paper ‘Pragmatic population viabilitytargets in a rapidly changing world’ in the journal Biological Conservation.“Conservation biologists routinely under-estimate or ignore the number of animalsor plants required to prevent extinction,”says lead author Dr Lochran Traill, fromthe University of Adelaide’s EnvironmentInstitute.“Often, they aim to maintain tens orhundreds of individuals, when thousandsare actually needed. Our review found thatpopulations smaller than about 5000 hadunacceptably high extinction rates. Thissuggests that many targets for conserva-tion recoveryare simply toosmall to domuch good inthe long run.” A long-standing ideain speciesrestorationprograms isthe so-called‘50/500’ rule.This statesthat at least50 adultsare requiredto avoid thedamaging ef-fects of inbreeding, and 500 to avoid ex-tinctions due to the inability to evolve tocope with environmental change.“Our research suggests that the 50/500rule is at least an order of magnitude toosmall to effectively stave off extinction,”says Dr Traill. “This does not necessarilyimply that populations smaller than 5000are doomed. But it does highlight the chal-lenge that small populations face in adapt-ing to a rapidly changing world.”Team member Professor RichardFrankham, from Macquarie University’sDepartment of Biological Sciences, says:“Genetic diversity within populations al-lows them to evolve to cope with environ-mental change, and genetic loss equates tofragility in the face of such changes.”Conservation biologists worldwide arebattling to prevent a mass extinction eventin the face of a growing human populationand its associated impact on the planet.“The conservation management barneeds to be a lot higher,” says Dr Traill.“However, we shouldn’t necessarily giveup on critically endangered species num-bering a few hundred of individuals in thewild. Acceptance that more needs to bedone if we are to stop ‘managing for ex-tinction’ should force decision makers to bemore explicit about what they are aiming for, and whatthey arewilling totrade off,when allo-cating con-servationfunds.”Other re-searchersin the studyare Associ-ate Profes-sor CoreyBradshawand Profes-sor BarryBrook,both from the University of Adelaide’sEnvironment Institute. The paper is on-line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bio-con.2009.09.01
Photo: Ian Whyte
Conseraton Targets TooSmall to Stop Extncton
Politicians, unite…and scientists,speak up!
Writing exclusively for a special is-sue of Physics World on the “energypuzzle”, the physicist Lord Browne,former BP chief executive, assertsthat politicians need to avoid com-partmentalizing energy and climate-change issues - and to work acrossGovernment and with internationalpartners to pursue action that bindseconomic prosperity, national secu-rity and environmental integrity.If all goes to plan, political leadersat December’s United Nations Cli-mate Change Conference in Copen-hagen (COP15) will agree to a succes-sor to the Kyoto protocol and makefurther promises to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. But the issue will, asalways, be how to put those promisesinto action.
To mark the signicance of the
occasion, this issue of Physics World
looks at the scientic challenges of
the energy and climate-change prob-lem, and at the political hurdles andthe importance of communicating the right messages, at the right pitch,to much wider audiences.In addition to calling for joined-uppolitical thinking, Lord Browne alsosays we should rethink the state’s rolein energy markets. “The market is themost effective delivery system avail-able to society,” he says, “but it needsstrategic direction and a framework of rules if it is to provide the more
diversied energy structure that we
urgently need.”On the challenge of communica-tion, Joseph Romm, a physicist atthe US think tank Center for Ameri-can Progress, says that scientists, andphysicists in particular, need to domore to warn the world of the dan-gers of climate change. As he writes, “The fate of perhapsthe next 100 billion people to walk the Earth rests with scientists try-ing to communicate the dire natureof the climate problem as well asthe ability of the media, the public,opinion-makers and political leadersto understand and deal with that sci-ence.”
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