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A Short Course on PROBABILITY and SAMPLING

# A Short Course on PROBABILITY and SAMPLING

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Probability and Sampling - a simple approach, with minimum use of mathematics. This short course is intended to serve as a concept and application of the subject. I hope, this would be useful for the students of Geography Biology and Social sciences etc [other than those of mathematics and mathematically oriented subjects].
Probability and Sampling - a simple approach, with minimum use of mathematics. This short course is intended to serve as a concept and application of the subject. I hope, this would be useful for the students of Geography Biology and Social sciences etc [other than those of mathematics and mathematically oriented subjects].

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04/28/2014

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A short Course on Probability Theory and Sampling, originally prepared as lecture notes for M.Sc. (Geography) students of Vidyasagar Univ, WB, India. Compiled by Dr. A. Kar Gupta, kg.abhi@gmail.com, Physics Deptt, Panskura B. College, WB, India
PROBABILITY and SAMPLING
Concept of Probability, the Probability Rules, Probability Distributions and Applications
For randomly occurring events, we would like to know how many times we get a desired result out of all trials. This means we would like to know the fraction of favourable events or trails. Suppose, we flip a coin a few number of times. We know there is a 50-50 chance of occurring a Head or a Tail. We may count how many times there
is a “Head” or a “Tail” out of all the flips.
Let,

= No. of favourable events and
= Total no. of events.


= fraction of favourable events. We can also say this is
relative frequency
in the usual language of Statistics. Now, if we do the trials a large number of times, this fraction

tends to some fixed value specific to the event. Then the limiting value of the fraction is what we call
probability
. Note:
Total no. of trials is also called ‘sample space’ when we are drawing samples out of total ‘population’. As the no. of trials is increased, the sample space becomes bigger.
Definition of Probability:
Probability is the ratio of number of favourable events to the total number of events, provided the total number of events is very large (actually infinity).
, when
(infinity). So by definition,
is a fraction between 0 and 1 :

.
No favourable outcome.
All the outcomes are in favour. We can also think in the following way:
probability of occurring an event,
probability of not occurring the event. Since, either the event will occur or not occur, we must write:

A short Course on Probability Theory and Sampling, originally prepared as lecture notes for M.Sc. (Geography) students of Vidyasagar Univ, WB, India. Compiled by Dr. A. Kar Gupta, kg.abhi@gmail.com, Physics Deptt, Panskura B. College, WB, India
2
Therefore, we have,

. Example #1: In a coin tossing, we know from our experience,

=

and

=

=

. So,

. Example #2:
In a throw of a dice, we know that the probability of the dice facing “1” up, “2” up, “3” up etc.
will be

,

,

and so on. Here,
Probability of n
ot occurring “1” is

.
Note:
The condition that the total probability of all the events has to be 1 is called
normalization
of probabilities:

Rules of Probability:
When more than one event takes place, we need to calculate the joint probability for the all the events.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) when they cannot occur at the same time. Suppose, two events are A and B and the individual probabilities for them are designated as

and

.
Mutually exclusive
means,
  
. Addition Rule: Example#1: The probability of occurring either Head or Tail in a coin toss,








A short Course on Probability Theory and Sampling, originally prepared as lecture notes for M.Sc. (Geography) students of Vidyasagar Univ, WB, India. Compiled by Dr. A. Kar Gupta, kg.abhi@gmail.com, Physics Deptt, Panskura B. College, WB, India
3
  

Example#2: The probability of occurring either “1’ or “6” in a dice throw,

  

.
Independent Events
When the occurrence of one event does not influence the other but they can occur at the same time, they are called independent. For example, the rain fall today and the Manchester United winning a match. Multiplication Rule: Example #1: What is the probability that two Heads will occur when we toss two coins together?

for the first coin and

for the second coin.

  

. Note that if would flip a single coin two times and ask the probability of getting Heads twice, we would get the same answer. Example #2: Now we ask the question, what is the probability of getting one Head and one Tail in the flipping of two coins together? Consider, the probability of obtaining Head in the first coin and Tail in the second coin:
  

. And the probability of obtaining Tail in the first and the Head in the second:
  

. Now the total probability of above two events (either of them occurs mutually exclusively):
  

. Note that in the flipping of two coins together, there are 4 types of events, HH, HT, TH, TT. Out of which the relative occurrence of one Head and one Tail is 2/4 = /12.






