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Publication 16055 En

Publication 16055 En

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Published by: edo-peiraias.blogspot.com on Nov 03, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
European Economic Forecast
Autumn 2009
Overview 1PART I: Economic developments at the aggregated level 5
1. The EU economy: the road ahead 7
1.1. Adjusting to a new steady state 71.2. The EU economy gradually emerging from the deep recession 101.3. Uncertainty remains high 331.4. Economic challenges ahead 35
2. Recent labour market developments and prospects 36
2.1. Labour market performance 362.2. Factors driving the labour market outlook 39
3. Government debt: past and future challenges 52
3.1. Economics of high government debt 533.2. Debt dynamics in historical perspective 543.3. Government developments during previous financial crisis periods 563.4. Government debt developments in the current crisis 583.5. Mechanical projections until 2020 613.6. A challenging consolidation ahead 64
PART II: Prospects by individual economy 69
Member States 71
1. Belgium: The path from policy-supported recovery to sustainablegrowth 722. Bulgaria: From recession to a more balanced growth pattern 753. The Czech Republic: From recession to gradual recovery 784. Denmark: Fiscal stimulus and private consumption underpinrecovery 815. Germany: Export-led rebound eventually turning into broad-based recovery 846. Estonia: On a path of rapid adjustment 887. Ireland: Significant domestic adjustment underlying a gradualrecovery 918. Greece: Economic downturn challenges public finances 949. Spain: A protracted economic adjustment ahead 9710. France: Storm successfully weathered, uneven recoveryunderway 10111. Italy: After the crisis, a return to moderate growth 10512. Cyprus: Ongoing economic adjustment, slow recovery ahead 10913. Latvia: Bulk of output correction over, public finances and theeconomy still reshaping 11214. Lithuania: Sharp contraction puts public finances under strongpressure 11615. Luxembourg: Recession followed by a relatively mild recovery 11916. Hungary: Forceful adjustments help reduce economicvulnerabilities 12217. Malta: Fragile recovery ahead 12518. The Netherlands: Recovery from recession to be led by externaldemand 128

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