Digital Re-print March | April 2014

Global Feed Markets: March-April 2014

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. Copyright 2014 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872

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GFMTs market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will influence your decision-making.

Ukraine impact on cereal trade probably exaggerated

A much bigger jump has been seen in world wheat trade, up 11m tonnes or almost 8% to a new record 158.5m. Much of that increase is down to China (+5.5m) and Egypt (+2m, catching up from a difficult financing period after the Arab Spring). However, wheat trade has quietened down considerably in recent weeks, probably due to the unexpected price rises.

UST two months on from our last review, the mood in cereal markets has shifted markedly from bear to bull for the short term at least. The over-riding influence has been events in the former Soviet Union, where the risk of political upheaval turning to military conflict cast a shadow over grain exports from this important supplying region.

Russia is the worlds fifth largest wheat exporter, Ukraine sixth. Combined they account for about 17.5% of world trade in this grain. Ukraines importance in the maize market is even more pivotal third largest exporter. Along with Russia (number five for this grain) it accounts for 19% of world exports. In the barley market too, these two countries are key players, jostling for joint number three place on the export list accounting for almost a quarter of world trade. Neither must we forget the regions increasing importance in the oilseed market. FSU sunflowerseed output, dominated by these two countries, accounts for well over half the world supply. Even in the rapeseed market they supply over 6% of world output and play a much larger role in supplying their near neighbours in the EU. Concerns about the impact of the Russian intervention in Crimea have focused on three main issues 1) the risk if hostilities escalated into outright military conflict (perhaps lower now as we go to press) of disruption to shipping; 2) conflict interfering with spring planting of Ukraines maize and oilseed crops, 3) the collapsing Ukrainian currency raising the cost and reducing the use of imported agro-chemical inputs, implying lower yields. Peripheral to some of these issues are the risks that western sanctions might also interfere with FSU cereal export trade (seen unlikely at this stage) and/or that this whole tangle of factors will be detrimental to the FSUs long-cherished plans to expand grain exports not only to its traditional big customer base in the Middle-east North Africa (MENA) area but to other regions like southeast Asia. As far as issue No 1) goes, there has been no discernible impact on export shipments to date, albeit a tendency for some importers to start looking cautiously elsewhere for their supplies. In the season to date, Ukraine has just reported total grain exports of 26.7m tonnes up 37.5% on last years including a record 15.84m tonnes of corn and 7.44m wheat. As recently as mid-March, they were still exporting as much as 760,000 tonnes of grain, largely corn, a week. Russian exports have also remained well ahead of last years at 19.36m to date including 14.29m wheat, 2.78m tonnes of corn and 2.05m tonnes of barley. Even in the period of recent greatest tension (March 1-12) they actually shipped 263,000 of corn and 212,000 tonnes of wheat so no slowdown yet. Given full season projections for Russia to export 17.5m tonnes of wheat and 3m corn, Ukraine 10m wheat and 18.5m corn, it can also be seen that both countries have already gone well past their peak marketing period and, for wheat especially, are now on the home run hostilities notwithstanding.

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FSU planting of spring grains and oilseeds (issue No 2) is meanwhile the road. Nobody knows but nature abhors a vacuum as they say proceeding both affected countriesThe and,excavations according to and the funds and otherwas speculative interests havelasting been only too keen a kind of revolution from 12,000 in Hallan emi, ayn, years had tonormally pass for in him tothe discover such recent In reports, not yet had problems acquiring adequate to Krtiktepe, step into it Mezra and invest higher wheat and maize prices helping toin6000 BC. The beginning of this period Gbekli Tepe, Nevali ori, things. other Ukraine words, has everything started bring about a self-fulfilling prophecy. On thewith bellwether Chicago seed agrochemicals 3). was mainly associated the disappearDiyarbakr ayn 14 to or 15,000 years ago(issue whenno humans, first Teleilat, Grctepe and to Its also to note that despite reports about futures exchange, funds recently bets caused (on prices rising) ance of raised what their Last long Ice Age and the giveof us some information including another having livedinteresting as a wanderer, eventually set- a lot drought parts of Ukraine and This Russia (the European Sea neolithic. to 209,600 contracts maize equivalent to 26.6m tonnes. They appearance of todays climates. Throughout meaning to Black the term These exca- for tled downinand started agriculture. new even went long on wheat the tune of 10,500 lots afterthemselves months of Basin has is seen 50% of normal winter rain), bothvations countries agriculture theto world, people tried to adapt also claim that farmers first began to beginning called the Neolithic Revolution it short price changing falls). ministries are reporting crops in better condition than last year. Some these climatic conditions with emerge gradually aboutselling 14,000 years(gambling ago. toon by archeologists and historians. What impact has this had on of cereal prices? and On their the CBOT wheat local observers suggest that the potential yield bonus mightzdoan, even make the help technology social habits. Mehmet an expert of this field, up for the fact that both sowed less winter wheat than intended (and market, it has, perhaps surprisingly (given the lower level of fund However, this revolution was a different suggests that: Southeastern Anatolia less than last year) due to heavy last autumn. Briefly, the Neolithic buying and the fact wheat shipments far Near less at riskwhen than one in some regions are of the East period reflects the that All of these have been proven torains be true by the bottom line to in all Southeastern this, at this stage at least, FSU grain in those of maize) had greater firming effect for maize. The compared to the rest ofthan the world. Thus, a period ofisreformation the areas such as a far the While archeologists excavating export business as usual, markets understandably about andfront month for wheat in Chicago, for came example has risen affecting by over 30% new lifestyle into being the nutrition,jittery technology lifestyle. Anatolia Region within the body are of GAP where the politics could lead and what effects there be down of more than $60 per tonne from its late January entire world. Inmight the basis of these reforms, this period (Southeastern Anatolia Project). Corporate Banner (190x132mm)(outlines)_Layout 1 23/12/2013 08:54 Page or 1 the equivalent

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Roller flour mills lows, reaching its highest level since April last year. Disused roller flour mills including those converted to other The wheat contract has also had some support from the poor uses condition of the US winter wheat crops after another dry winter in 03 An illustrated Report on the flour mills recorded in 01 and the Southern Plains (main source of hard red bread wheat) and some 02 in the context of the Roller Milling Flour Revolution from extremely harsh weather across the Midwest, including damp and the 1890s to the present. cold in the soft red winter belt. Crops are not as bad as last years but The Project Team is now exploring the possibility of extending they are worse than expected earlier. Wheat does have a legendary the researching and recording of roller flour mills over the whole capacity to recover when the weather improves and hopefully some of the UK and Eire plus a little European and USA input to give of that loss of yield potential will be made up by a larger sown area. context to the Roller Flour Milling Revolution in the UK. US spring wheat area is also expected to rise quite sharply (by about I hope you have read thus far and, just to whet your appetite 16%, according to one recent private estimate), which is promising for more, I plan to tell an illustrated history of roller flour milling in for quality wheat buyers. future issues of GFMT and answer the questions: The EU wheat market has also risen sharply in response to the Why was Hungary mentioned at the beginning of this piece? Ukrainian crisis, speculative buying and the knock-on effect of price What was the origin of HOVIS as a trade name for flour and rises across the Atlantic. Here the increase is closer to 12% from bread? the January lows although that was still enough to put Paris milling To complete this article with a picture may help to answer the wheat futures at their own 11-month high. European wheat market first question: sentiment has been responsive to the Black Sea situation because of the dependence on maize imports from this region to supplement grain supply in the feed sector, allowing Europe to continue exporting record amounts of wheat. The last figures we have for this trade show total EU wheat export licences issued this season recently reached 21.3m tonnes a staggering 50% increase on this time last year (14.2m). Thats well ahead of forecasts from bodies like the USDA for an increase of less than 22%. EU maize import licenses have meanwhile soared 13% on the year to 9.3m tonnes, already in sight of realising the USDAs full season forecasts of 10.5m tonnes (which would actually be 7.5% down from last season.) Will wheat prices continue to rise? Certainly the funds have the muscle, if supply fundamentals look encouraging enough, to help push the market higher. However, there seems little justification for that at this stage, especially with another big crop on the way. The respected US analysts AgResource recently estimated this at almost 714m tonnes, just over last years. Given some dry weather issues in East/ Central Europe, the FSU, the US and West Australia, that may look a bit optimistic. However, we might remember that last years world

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Figure 4

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wheat crop was initially seen rising to only 680m tonnes (International Grains Council) yet ended up between 708/713m. Looking across the main producing countries, Europe itself has just been predicted by French analysts Strategie Grains, to raise its soft wheat crop by 2% this year to 137.7m tonnes. The US expects to grow 3.4% more at 60m tonnes (government body FAPRI). As a big Kazakh crop offsets some trimming of Russian and Ukrainian production, total FSU output should not be far off last years large total of around 104m tones. India is heading for a record crop of perhaps 95m. China has no serious problems and may cap several years of record output (122m last year) with another big crop. Canada may sow less after producing rather too much last year but will carry in very large stocks. Overall, world wheat stocks carried in from this season will be up by about 8m tonnes although the US and Europe will be relatively low stocked compared with recent years, so favourable weather for their crops in the rest of the growing season will be important. Wheat prices might also be reined in by demand slowing in the face of larger maize supplies and feed consumers response to relatively far higher wheat prices. Since March 2013, maize prices have collapsed by a third whereas the recent strength in the wheat market puts it on a par to slightly dearer than this time last year. Still, the USDA estimates that world wheat consumption will finish up 4.5% higher this season despite a near 24m hike in use of maize with the latters recovering crop. A much bigger jump has been seen in world wheat trade, up 11m tonnes or almost 8% to a new record 158.5m. Much of that increase is down to China (+5.5m) and Egypt (+2m, catching up from a difficult financing period after the Arab Spring). However, wheat trade has quietened down considerably in recent weeks, probably due to the unexpected price rises. CBOT futures markets suggest soft wheat will still be relatively dear in first quarter 2015, around $7.35/bu or about $270/tonne although FAPRI recently was far more bearish on the outlook, forecasting a seasonal average for 2014/15 of just $5.55/bu (under $205/t).

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Maize supply prospects also good

Although cheaper than a year ago, maize prices have risen by about 13% since our last review on speculative buying linked to the Ukrainian situation and in recognition of a stronger than expected pace of US export trade (probably at least partially linked to the latter). The global suypply outlook for maize remains fairly promising. Drought and heatwaves in Brazil do not seem to have affected the worlds second largest exporter as much as earlier feared and while less has been sown regionally this year, the crop now starting harvest should be around 94m for Brazil and Argentina combined. Thats down 13.5m from last year but still larger than the long-term average for the third year in a row. Russia and Ukraine should again produce larger than normal crops to maintain a wider choice of suppliers on the world market, keeping US exporters on their mettle. In the US itself,

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RICE UPDATE
PRODUCTION
In terms of expanding cultivation, rice has been one of the success stories of the past few years. World rough rice production growth has accelerated in the last decade, expanding by 21% compared with an 11% gain in the 10-years to 2003/14. This reflected a rise in the harvested area of 7.6% in the last ten years (previous decade 2.7%) but, eve more so, yields rising by 13% (8.3%). By 2013/14 world area had reached an all-time record 160.6m ha and while this seasons yields stabilised at last years peak level of 4.4 tonnes/ha, the resultant rough rice crop still grew to 708m tonnes - in milled terms about 475m tonnes. Stabilising yields will see world rice production grow more slowly this season by 3.3m tonnes or 0.7% compared with just over 1% last season, 3.7% in 2011/12 and 2% in 2010/11. Flattening trends are most evident among the big producers, China, India and Vietnam with most of this seasons output gains spread among moderate-sized players like Brazil, Burma, Egypt and Pakistan.

strategic reserves, the more important bellwether followed by the market is the combined stock in India, Thailand, and Vietnam the worlds top three suppliers. This figure will hit a record 41m tonnes in 2013/14, almost doubling over the last ten years. Most of this years increase will be down to Thailand (about 2m tonnes), driven by the countrys farmer support programme. A recent USDA report indicated these high exporter stocks could point to further downward pressure on forward prices. In fact, the popular rice benchmark price - for Thai 100% B grade (fob Bangkok) has already dropped to around $420 per tonne, 27.5% below prices ruling in March 2013.

the first planting estimates for 2014 are just being released, ranging around 91-92m acres which, with normal harvest ratios and yields close to last years would imply a crop of around 330/335m tonnes, maybe a bit more. That could imply modest stock drawdown if demand stayed at this seasons level but the impact is cushioned by this seasons huge crop leaving carryover stocks about 16m tonnes higher. For Europe, Strategie Grains is forecasting a possible corn crop of 65.2m tonnes which would be very close to last years. If the EU wants to go on using larger quantities of corn in feeds (up 4m this season at a record 73.5m tonnes, it will need to continue making large imports from Ukraine and other suppliers. The first world crop estimates are also starting to appear with AgResource estimating an 11m tonne increase from this seasons 967.5m. Based on another year of big supplies and big demand, CBOT maize prices are pointing to similar levels in early 2015 to those ruling now (around $4.90/bu, $193/t). FAPRI is againmore bearish looking for a seasonal average of $4.17 ex-farm for 2014/15 and a round $4 ($157/t) for 2015/16.

TRADE

CONSUMPTION

World rice consumption on the other hand, has grown at a similar pace during the last decade to the previous ten years, by about 14-15%. Although growth in demand actually exceeded crop expansion in the last two years (a reverse of the previous two) overall consumption continued to lag production. This years global consumption growth of 7m tonnes (about 1.5%) has been mainly down to China and India (+2m each), with smaller gains spread across countries including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Burma, Cambodia and Egypt. Although still lagging production, consumption will grow faster than supply this season, moderating the rise in world carryover stocks somewhat.

STOCKS

This has led to regular global surpluses and constant (seven successive years) of increases in the global rice stock carried from one season to the next. At the start of the current 2013/14 season, the total had reached an 11-year high of 111m tonnes and is currently seen edging up yet again, albeit more slowly than in recent years, as the market enters 2014/15. The largest stockholder has long been China (46m tonnes this season or about 41% of the world total). But as these are considered off-market in

World rice trade continues to reach new record levels too, expanding from 38.7m tonnes last season to a forecast 41m for 2013/14. Trade has grown almost fourfold over the last 30 years and by over 50% in the last decade. The largest importing bloc is subSaharan Africa which takes about 12.5m tonnes a year or almost one third of the world total followed by the Middle East (6.5m) with East and southeast Asian regions in joint third place at about 5.1m tonnes each. Most of the import trade growth in recent years has also been in SubSaharan Africa (about 4m tonnes) and in China. Despite being the worlds largest rice producing country and usually managing some sort of annual increment to its own crop base, Chinas deficit has increased roughly ten-fold in the last four years to about 3.4m tonnes, making it the largest single country importer. African import growth is led by Nigeria, now importing 3m tonnes a year - a third more than four years ago and putting it in second place behind China among the leading importers. Other key import players include Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia, Iran and Iraq.

Oilmeal price rises should deflate

SOYA and other oilmeal costs have risen since our last review despite the overall outlook for abundant supplies and global buildip of oil-bearing raw materials. Several factors lay behind the price increases, including smaller than expected Brazilian soyabean output, strong Chinese demand for soyabeans, a drought threat to palm oil supplies and fears that the Ukrainian crisis might disrupt sunflower and rapeseed product exports from these two important sources. However, cheaper prices are indicated on the forward futures markets as well as by the FAPRI report mentioned above. The latest USDA forecasts suggest soyabean output alone will still rise this season by 15m to 18m tonnes, depending whether Brazil gets 85m or 88m (versus last years previous record 82m). Although Brazil and Paraguay endured some drought/heat damage at the tail end of the growing season, Argentina has escaped largely uscathed, leaving regional output huge. Regional stocks carried in from last year will also be unusually large after Argentine farmers hoarded crops as a hedge against their declining currency while Brazilian shipping problems kept a big chunk of supply moving to export. Even without the forecast record US soyabean area this spring, raw material supplies are huge and the increase in crush foreseen by the USDA (+10m to 239m) looks a bit conservative. It assumes 13m tonnes of beans will be added to world stocks, pushing them up to a near record 70.6m tonnes a surplus that can be drawn on the moment product prices/crush margins start to rise. US soyabean plantings are meanwhile expected to jump this year to around 81.5m acres which with a normal 99% harvest ratio and a repeat of last years average yields, could produce 95/97m tonnes, allowing substantial recovery in US carryover stocks from their unusually low levels of the last year or two. If top user Chinas demand for soyabeans/ meal is slowing down with their economy, as many analysts think, and/or Latam crops keep increasing, the soya market could be looking slack in a few months time. The USDAs recent Outlook Forum recently took this potential on board, projecting an average US ex-farm price forecast for soyabeans in 2014/15 of $9.65/bu versus this seasons $12.45 (CBOT futures are still predicting January 2015 in the $11.50s). World rapeseed supply has turned out about 5m tonnes bigger than expected this season, thanks to big crops in Europe, the FSU and, above all Canada where a record 18m tonnes has been prevented from moving quickly to crush and export by rail transport snarl-ups. As well as the large

OUTLOOK

A possible El Nino year could bring unwelcome dryness to Southeast & East Asia, possibly impacting yields in 2014/15 although at this stage, it is too early to make any firm predictions. Even if production does slow, carryover stocks are large enough to supplement a lean season or two. Along with ongoing competition among wellstocked leading suppliers, this suggests limited leeway for a revival in rice prices in the near future.

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world like a packet referred to as Neolithic Pack by archeologists. If we take the holy scriptures into consideration, since they are the products of humanity, the saying, You shall eat weed; until you become earth, you shall eat bread by the sweat of your brow1 has come true. Human landing on Earth from heaven has lived his own heaven and hell on Earth.

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References & Footnotes

1 A.Uhri, Ekmek ve Uygarlk, Metro-Gastro/42, stocks this will leave for carry into next season, some analysts are Metro Kltr Yay., stanbul-2007, s.121. still looking for another large Canadian sown area this spring, setting 2 M.zdoan, Neolitik Dnem: Gnmz the stage for another huge crop. European and CIS rapeseed crop Uygarlnn Temel Talar, 12.000 Yl weather has been large favourable, winterkill low, also pointing to How much will the US sow/grow this year? nce Uygarln Anadoludan Avrupaya Will US feed, ethanol and exports hold up in latter half 2014? adequate supplies for 2014/15. Yolculuunun Balangc Neolitik Dnem, Sunflowerseed output jumped almost 19% this season on large How will CIS plantings, crop development proceed? (edt.)N.Bagelen, YKY Yay., stanbul-2007, 9-20. European and CIS crops, reaching 43.3m tonnes against 36.4m the and CIS export trade amid political turmoil? 3 G.Willcox-M.Savard, Gneydou Anadoluda previous year, raising sunmeal output potential at competitive prices. How will LatAm crop competition shape up? Tarmn Benimsenmesine likin Botanik Although the Ukrainian issue has made customers nervous, shipments Will the EU see a third season of massive maize imports to feed Veriler, Anadoluda Uygarln Douu record wheat exports? so far seem not to have been interrupted, Both the CIS countries ve Avrupaya Yaylm-Trkiyede Neolitik might also sow more this spring on land that went unplanted to winter Ukraine and Russia have unplanted winter wheat land that will go Dnem-Yeni Kazlar, Yeni Bulgular, (edt.) to spring planted crops oilseeds and maize. They are expected cereals because of bad weather. M.zdoan-N.Bagelen, Arkeoloji ve Sanat Overall, both stocks and prospective supplies of oilseeds remain to remain key players in the global maize export market with huge Yay., stanbul-2007, s.427-440. large and promising for price-restraint, if not cheaper supplies of influence on European feed values. 4 K.Schmidt, Gbekli Tepe 12.000 Yl oilmeal in the season ahead. China may release more of its huge stocks, cutting its import needs. nce Uygarln Anadoludan Avrupaya World barley & sorghum output Yolculuunun Balangc Neolitik Dnem, 6 M.Roaf, Mezopotamya ve Eski Yakndou, Maisels 1999, s.123 ayrca Cohen 1977, s.135. (edt.)N.Bagelen, YKY Yay., stanbul-2007, ev.Z.Kl, letiim yay., stanbul-1996, s.27. 11 S.H.Hook, Ortadou Mitolojisi, ev.A.enel, s.93-95. 7 C.K.Maisels, Uygarln Douu, ev.A.enel, mge Ktbv., Ankara-1993, s.36-37. Will the US crop emerge from drought and winterkill threats with 5 P.Dolukhanov, Eski Ortadouda evre mge Ktbv. Yay., Ankara-1999, s.145. 12 A.nal, Etiler ve Hititler, Etibank Yay., a respectable result - probably greater than last years, if offset by Big LatAm & prospective US crops signal huge soya supplies, stock ve Etnik Yap, ev.S.Aydn, mge Yay., 8 Roaf 1996, s.29. stanbul-1999, 215 lower carry-in stocks? buildup Ankara-1998, 200-202 ve M.N.Cohen, The 9 A.nal, Etiler ve Hititler, Etibank Yay., 13 nal 1999, 215-217. What impact will the Ukrainian crisis have on its 2014/15 crops China may use/import less soyabeans as its economy slows Food Crisis in Prehistory, Yale Unv. Press., stanbul-1999, s.221. 14 Tekvin, 3: 18-19. Kitab Mukaddes, Kitab of wheat and maize, on its ability to trade freely (trade finance, How much rapeseed (Canada/EU/CIS) and sunflowers (EU/CIS) USA-1977, s.135. 10 Dolukhanov 1998, s.204 Roaf 1996, s.29, ve Mukaddes irketi, stanbul-1993.

which are now controlled by Russia)? How much will Canada sow? Will those parts of Central/Eeastern Europe, CIS and Australia that have been too dry get adequate spring and summer rains? Will India step up its exports? Will wheat consumption hold up in the feed and global import sectors in the face of higher prices? Will 2014 maize crops expand as some think, keeping downward pressure on wheat prices in the feed sector? Can speculators continue to find enough justification in this basket of factors for investing in wheat futures?

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