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Ofce o Immigration Statistics
 
Policy Directorate
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Estimates o the UnauthorizedImmigrant Population Residing inthe United States: January 2008
MicHael HoeFer, NaNcy rytiNa, aND BryaN c. Baker
This report provides estimates o the number o unauthorized immigrants residing in the UnitedStates as o January 2008 by period o entry, region and country o origin, state o residence, ageand gender. The estimates were obtained using the “residual” methodology employed or estimateso the unauthorized population in 2007 (see Hoeer, Rytina and Baker, 2008). The unauthorizedresident population is the remainder or “residual” ater estimates o the legally resident oreign-born population – legal permanent residents (LPRs), asylees, reugees, and nonimmigrants – aresubtracted rom estimates o the total oreign-born population. Data to estimate the legally residentpopulation were obtained primarily rom the Department o Homeland Security (DHS) while theAmerican Community Survey (ACS) o the U.S. Census Bureau was the source or estimates o thetotal oreign-born population.
In summary, the number o unauthorized immigrantsliving in the United States declined rom 11.8 millionin January 2007 to 11.6 million in January 2008. The2008 estimate marks the irst time since 2005 whenDHS began producing annual estimates that there wasnot a year-to-year increase in unauthorized residents.During the 2000-2008 period, the unauthorized immigrant population increased by 37 percent.
DeFiNitioNSlg rsdns
The legally resident immigrant population as deinedor these estimates includes all persons who weregranted lawul permanent residence; granted asylee status; admitted as reugees; or admitted as nonimmigrantsor a temporary stay in the United States and notrequired to leave by January 1, 2008. Nonimmigrantresidents reer to certain aliens who were legally admitted temporarily to the United States or speciied timeperiods such as students and temporary workers.
Unuhzd rsdns
The unauthorized resident immigrant population isdefned as all oreign-born non-citizens who are not legalresidents. Unauthorized residents reer to oreign-bornpersons who entered the United States withoutinspection or were admitted temporarily and stayed pastthe date they were required to leave. Unauthorized immigrants applying or adjustment to lawul permanent residence under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA)Section 245(i) are unauthorized until they have beengranted LPR status, even though they may have beenauthorized to work. Similarly, unauthorized immigrantswho have applied or asylum or Temporary ProtectedStatus (TPS) are considered to be unauthorized residents.Persons who are benefciaries o TPS are not technicallyunauthorized but were excluded rom the legally residentimmigrant population because data are unavailable in su icient detail to estimate this population.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) estimates that several hundredthousand persons had TPS status in 2007.
MetHoDoloGy aND Data
Two populations are estimated in order to derive theunauthorized population estimates: 1) the total oreign-born population living in the United States on January1, 2008, and 2) the legally resident population on thesame date. The unauthorized population is equal to 1)minus 2). It was assumed that oreign-born residentswho had entered the United States prior to 1980 werelegally resident since most were eligible or
 
DHS Ofce o Immigration Statistics
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2000200520062007200802.04.06.08.010.012.014.08.510.511.311.811.6DHS estimates not producedfor 2001–2004
legal permanent resident status. Thereore, the starting point or theestimates was January 1, 1980. The steps involved in estimating thecomponents o each population are shown in Appendix 1. Data onthe oreign-born population that entered during 1980-2007 bycountry o birth, state o residence, year o entry, age and genderwere obtained rom the 2007 American Community Survey (ACS).The ACS is a nationwide sample survey that collects inormationrom U.S. households on social, demographic, and economic characteristics, including country o birth and year o entry o the oreign-born population. The ACS consists o non-overlapping samples romwhich inormation is collected monthly over the course o a year.The ACS was selected or the estimates because o its large samplesize, about 3 million households in 2007 compared to 100,000 orthe March 2008 Current Population Survey, the primary alternativesource o national data on the oreign-born population.
The Registry Provision o the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allows persons who have beenin the United States since January 1, 1972 to apply or LPR status. Additionally, persons who hadlived in the United States beore 1982 as unauthorized residents were eligible to adjust to LPRstatus under the Immigration Reorm and Control Act (IRCA) o 1986.
Data on persons who obtained LPR status by country o birth, stateo residence, age, category o admission, and year o entry wereobtained rom DHS administrative records maintained in an application case tracking system o U.S. Citizenship and ImmigrationServices (USCIS). Data on reugees arriving in the United States bycountry o origin were obtained rom the Department o State. Dataon persons granted asylum by country o origin were obtained romUSCIS or those granted asylum airmatively and rom the ExecutiveOice o Immigration Review o the Department o Justice or thosegranted asylum deensively through removal proceedings. Data onnonimmigrant admissions by country o citizenship, state o residence, age, and class o admission were obtained rom I-94 arrival-departure records in the Treasury Enorcement CommunicationsSystem (TECS) o U.S. Customs and Border Protection.The estimates were generated by country o birth and state o residence or the unauthorized population living in the 50 States andthe District o Columbia. The Cuban-born population living in theUnited States was excluded rom the estimates since, according toimmigration law, Cubans living in the United States more than ayear are eligible to apply to adjust to LPR status.Caution is recommended in interpreting changes in the size o theunauthorized population presented in this report. The annual estimates o the unauthorized immigrant population are subject tosampling error in the ACS and a considerable amount o nonsampling error because o uncertainty in some o the assumptionsrequired or estimation (see Limitations below). Calculating annualchange over a period o years smoothes the luctuations that mayoccur in adjacent years.
lmns
 Assumptions about undercount of the foreign-born population in the ACS and rates of emigration.
The estimates are sensitive to the assumptions that aremade about these components (see
reSUltS
).
 Accuracy of year of entry reporting.
Concerns exist among immigrationanalysts regarding the validity and reliability o Census survey dataon the year o entry question “When did this person come to live inthe United States?” Errors also occur in converting DHS administrative dates or legally resident immigrants to year o entry dates.
 Assumptions about the nonimmigrant population estimate.
The estimates arebased on admission counts and length o visit by class o admission and not actual population counts. Length o visit, which iscalculated by matching arrival and departure records, is subject tomore error than admissions data.
Sampling error in the ACS.
The 2007 ACS data are based on a sample o the U.S. population. Thus the estimates o the total oreign-bornpopulation that moved to the United States in the 1980-2007period are subject to sampling variability. The estimated margin o error or the estimate o the oreign-born population in the 2007ACS at the 90 percent conidence level is plus or minus approximately 151,000.
 Accuracy of state of residence for the legally resident population.
State o residenceor legally resident 1980-2007 entrants is assumed to be the state o residence on the date the most recent status (e.g. reugee, LPR, ornaturalized citizen) was obtained; however, the accuracy o the estimates may be aected by state-to-state migration that occurredbetween the date o the status change and January 1, 2008.
reSUltSov tnd
DHS estimates that the unauthorized immigrant population in theUnited States numbered 11.6 million in January 2008 comparedto 11.8 million in January 2007, 11.3 million in January 2006,10.5 million in January 2005, and 8.5 million in 2000 (seeFigure 1). The increase in the unauthorized population between2000 and 2008 was 3.1 million or 37 percent. The annual averagenet increase in the unauthorized population during this 8-yearperiod was 390,000.
Figure 1.
Unauthorized Immigrant Population: 2000–2008
Millions
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
 
 
DHS Ofce o Immigration Statistics
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tb 1.
Pd f en f h Unuhzd immgn Ppun:Jnu 2008 
esmd ppunJnu 2008Pd f nNumbPn
All years ....................... 11,600,000 1002005-2007 ...................... 1,070,000 92000-2004 ...................... 3,250,000 281995-1999 ...................... 3,260,000 281990-1994 ...................... 1,800,000 161985-1989 ...................... 1,310,000 111980-1984 ...................... 900,000 8
Detail may not sum to totals because o rounding.Source: U.S. Department o Homeland Security.
The decrease in the size o the unauthorized population between2007 and 2008 may be due to sampling error in the estimate o the oreign-born population in the 2007 ACS. Nonsampling errorslisted above (see Limitations), especially in the estimates o undercount o the oreign-born population in the ACS and emigration o legally resident immigrants, may also have had a sizable impact onthe estimates. However, the estimates show that the unauthorizedpopulation was increasing rom 2000 until 2007. The trendsreported by DHS are consistent with estimates by the Pew HispanicCenter showing 11.9 million unauthorized immigrants living inthe United States in March 2008, 12.4 million in March 2007,11.5 million in March 2006, and 11.1 million in March 2005(Passel and Cohn, 2008).The sensitivity o the estimates to assumptions about undercounto the oreign-born population and emigration is illustrated withseveral examples. Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate rom 10 percent to 20 percent increases the estimatedunauthorized population rom 11.6 million to 13.0 million. Bylowering or raising emigration rates 20 percent and holding allother assumptions constant, the estimated unauthorized im-migrant population would range rom 10.9 million to 12.3 million. Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate andlowering or raising emigration rates by 20 percent would expandthe range o the estimated unauthorized immigrant population to12.3-13.8 million.
Pd f en
 Just over 4.3 million (37 percent) o unauthorized immigrants in2008 had entered the United States since January 1, 2000 (see Table1). An estimated 1.1 million (9 percent) came to the United Statesbetween 2005 and 2007 while 3.3 million (28 percent) came during 2000 to 2004. Forty-our percent came to live in the UnitedStates during the 1990s, and 19 percent entered during the 1980s.
cmpnns f h Unuhzd immgnPpun n 2008
The size o each component o the unauthorized immigrant population estimates or 2008 is displayed in Table 2. See Appendix 1or a detailed explanation o each entry in Table 2. For the oreign-born population, the starting point was the estimated 28.9 millionoreign-born residents in the 2007 ACS that entered the UnitedStates during 1980-2007. This population was increased by 2.4million, or 8 percent, by adjustments or the shit in the reerencedate rom mid-year 2007 to January 1, 2008 and the addition o undercounts or the populations o nonimmigrants, other legallyresident immigrants, and unauthorized immigrants. The estimatedundercount o the unauthorized immigrant population in the ACSwas nearly 1.2 million and represents 49 percent o all adjustments to the oreign-born population.For the legally resident population, the starting point was the lowo 22.4 million LPRs, reugees and asylees during 1980-2007. By January 2007, the 22.4 million had been reduced by 4.6 million
tb 2.
cmpnns f h Unuhzd immgn Ppun: Jnu 2008
20081) Fgn-bn ppun
a. Foreign-born population, entered 1980-2007, 2007 ACS ............................................................. 28,890,000b. Adjustment or shit in reerence date rom July 1, 2007 to January 1, 2008 ............................................... 600,000c. Undercount ononimmigrants in ACS ........................................................................... 180,000d. Undercount o other legally resident immigrants (LPRs, recent reugee/asylee arrivals) in ACS .................................. 450,000e. Undercount ounauthorized immigrant population in ACS ............................................................ 1,160,000. Estimated oreign-born population, January 1, 2008 (a.+b.+c.+d.+e.) .................................................... 31,280,000
2) lg sdn ppun
g. LPR, reugee, and asylee fow January 1, 1980–December 31, 2007 .................................................... 22,440,000h. Mortality 1980-2007 ................................................................................... 1,380,000i. Emigration 1980-2007 ................................................................................... 3,230,000 j. LPR, reugee, and asylee resident population, January 1, 2008 (g.-h.-i.) ................................................... 17,840,000k. Nonimmigrant population on January 1, 2008 ..................................................................... 1,840,000l. Estimated legally resident population, January 1, 2008 (j.+k.) .......................................................... 19,680,000
3) Unuhzd mmgn ppun
m. Estimated resident unauthorized immigrant population, January 1, 2008 (.-l.) .............................................11,600,000
Detail may not sum to totals because o rounding.Source: U.S. Department o Homeland Security.
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