November 3, 2009

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I M F S T A F F P O S I T I O N N O T E

November 3, 2009

SPN/09/25

The State of Public Finances Cross-CountryFiscal Monitor: November 2009

Prepared by the Staff of the Fiscal Affairs Department

I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D

2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDFiscal Affairs Department

The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor:

N

ovember 2009

Prepared by the Staff of the Fiscal Affairs Department

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Authorized for distribution by Carlo Cottarelli November 3, 2009JEL Classification Numbers:E60, E62, E63, E65, E66, F42, G28, H30, H60,H62, H68Keywords:Global financial crisis, policy response, fiscal policy, fiscal stimulus, fiscal sustainability, debtsustainability, exit strategiesAuthors’ E-mail Addresses: pgerson@imf.org; mhorton@imf.org;mkumar@imf.org; pmauro@imf.org

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The

Monitor

was coordinated by Mark Horton under the supervision of Philip Gerson, with contributions fromManmohan Kumar, Paolo Mauro, Julio Escolano, Annalisa Fedelino, Ricardo Velloso, Mauricio Villafuerte,Emanuele Baldacci, Olivier Basdevant, Fabian Bornhorst, Reda Cherif, Gabriela Dobrescu, Greetje Everaert,Oriel Fernandes, Marc Gerard, Jan Gottschalk, Borja Gracia, Julia Guerreiro, Anna Ivanova, Daehaeng Kim,Pablo Lopez-Murphy, Junhyung Park, Cemile Sancak, and Andrea Schaechter.

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and shouldnot be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.

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Contents Page

What’s New in this Edition of the Fiscal Monitor?...................................................................5The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009........................6Tables1. Fiscal Balances.......................................................................................................................72. G-20 Countries: Implementation of Stimulus Packages........................................................93. Support for Financial and Other Sectors and Upfront Financing Need...............................114. Financial Sector Support Utilized Relative to Announcement............................................115. G-20 Countries: Changes in Structural and Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances,Revenues and Expenditures, 2007

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10.....................................................................................136. G-20 Countries: Changes in Structural and Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances,Revenues and Expenditures, 2010–14.....................................................................................167. Debt and Primary Balances..................................................................................................248. Required Adjustment of Structural Primary Balance: Sensitivity to Variations in Interestand Growth Rates (r-g) and Debt Targets................................................................................259. Country Experiences with Large Fiscal Adjustment...........................................................2710. Change in Overall Fiscal Balances in Selected Countries.................................................31Figures1. G-20 Countries: Composition of Fiscal Stimulus Measures................................................102. G-20 Countries: Evolution of Fiscal Balances During 2000–14.........................................123. G-20 Countries: General Government Debt Ratios, 2000–14.............................................154. G-20 Countries: Decomposition of Debt Dynamics, 2002–14............................................175. Representative Emerging G-20 Country: Evolution of Public Debt...................................186. Financial Market Indicators of Fiscal Risks........................................................................207. RAS Spreads........................................................................................................................228. Change in Cyclically-Adjusted Fiscal Indicators During Upturn Periods...........................33Boxes1. Impacts of the Crisis on Tax Revenues................................................................................142. Unwinding the Fiscal Stimulus............................................................................................143. The Role of Fiscal Rules in Large Fiscal Adjustments........................................................284. Constraints on Fiscal Policy Response in Emerging Market Countries..............................325. IMF Technical Support for Structural Reforms in Crisis Countries....................................34Annex Tables1. G-20 Countries: Fiscal Balances and General Government Debt.......................................352. G-20 Countries: Fiscal Expansion.......................................................................................363. Support for Financial and Other Sectors and Upfront Financing Need...............................374

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Financial Sector Support Utilized Relative to Announcement............................................395. G-20 Countries: Selected Fiscal Risk Indicators.................................................................40AppendixDeficits, Debt, and Interest Rates............................................................................................41

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