The %orld :ank has provided a similar estimate. ;)ee
New York Times
" $an 1<" 4011=. To make a pro7ection from 4010 forward" assuming that the 5) real 3- will grow as much as >.<6 per year and the Chinese real 3- will grow at only 86 per year and raising the ratio ;1.080?1.0><= @ 1.11A8 to the 9th power gives 1.,,A. %hen 0.,94 is multiplied by this number" the result is slightly larger than one. 'ence" by 4019 China’s 3- will 7ust e#ceed the 5) 3-. +lthough in per capita terms China’s 3- will be much smaller" total output is a more useful measure of the economic strength of a country. The amounts of e#ports and imports" of foreign investment and foreign economic assistance are measures of economic power that depend on total output.:y 4011" China’s economy already has other signs of its economic dominance. &n technology it has the fastest supercomputer. +
article on $anuary 4" 4011 ;p. C>= reported that in 4011 China will file more patents than the 5)" and the Chinese government has issued a target of filing 4 million patents in 401<" increasing from only ,00"000 in 4009. &n terms of the production of alternative energy" it is the world’s largest producer of wind energy" nuclear energy and solar panels. Consumer goods produced by China flood the world market. Chinese tourists are seen travelling all over the world and making e#pensive purchases. rom mostly receiving investment from other countries China has increased its investment abroad rapidly" in a process to catch up with the former.
.Comparing China’s Mar!et "nstit#tions with the $S
The housing bubble and the ensuing economic downturn beginning in 4008 have revealed the institutional weaknesses of the +merican economy. 5) financial institutions and consumers were allowed to take too much risk. &n the trading of financial derivatives and the financing of the purchase of new homes +merican financial institutions took gamble without sufficient capital. Consumers used credit cards to make purchases e#cessively and were able to purchase houses without any down payment. )uch practices led to an economic downturn and subse!uent government legislation to regulate suchrisky practices. :ut the effectiveness of the new regulations is still uncertain.China does not have the above institutional weaknesses because the government’s reform of financial institutions has been gradual and cautious. Chinese financial institutions are not allowed to take such high risks as the 5) institutions. Chinese consumers cannot use credit cards without sufficient deposit" nor can they purchase houses without a down payment. &n addition the Chinese consumers are by tradition more thrifty. -ifferences in economic institutions between China and the 5) can be e#plained by cultural differences in the two countries. +mericans believe in individualism. The Chinese believe in collectivism. +mericans believe in the $effersonian doctrine that thegovernment is the best that governs the least. They distrust the government. :y tradition the Chinese respect the government and government officials. The Chinese also respect authority. +lthough +mericans distrust the government" they respect the law and are more law abiding than the Chinese. Confucianism puts less emphasis on obeying the law than on being guided by one’s own moral 7udgment which may result in an appeal to authority. &n many respects +merica is ruled by law and China is ruled by people. any +mericans believe that the government is the problem. The Chinese believe that the