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Go Big or Go Deep

An Analysis of Strategy Options onAfghanistan

14 October 2009By LTC Daniel L. Davis, US Army

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Table of Contents

Section Page No.Introduction 4Executive Summary 6Go Big Analyzed 7

“Foreign Invaders” 7 Is 40,000 Enough? 8Trust and Hope 10Unintended Consequences: Redeployment from 11 Iraq & the Logistics Logjam Enemy Actions and Strategy 12Trust and Hope II 12Governmental Corruption 13Growing the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF): 14

Go Deep: Setting the Conditions 16

Aggressive Intelligence-driven Operations 16 What the 9/11 Commission Report

Didn’t

Say 17 “Jeff” and “Mike” with bin Laden in the Crosshairs 17 Multiple Agencies, No Crosstalk 18Political Circumstances and Conditions 19What We Should (and are mostly already organized to) Do: Going Deep 20 Jack Bauer 20Going Deep in Afghanistan 21

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ANSF and the Redeployment of US Conventional Forces 23 Reconciliation 26 The Pakistan Factor 26 Economic Development 28 Education 29Government 29

Risk 30

Go Big Risk 30COIN v. CT 30 ANSF 30Government 31 American Control of Terrain: boon to Taliban? 31Troop Exhaustion 32 Looking for the Lost Quarter: Increased Global Freedom 33of Maneuver for TerroristsGo Deep Risk 34Taliban Control of Terrain: boon to al Qaeda? 34 Defeat the Taliban? 35 ANSF 36 Government 36

Conclusion 36Epilogue: Surging Misconceptions 37