47%22%17%7% 7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Bera Ose Birman Emken Undecided
Bera in First Place, Followed by Ose and Birman
TO:
Interested Parties
FROM:
Christina Coloroso, DCCC Director of Targeting and Analytics
RE:
CA-07: Republicans Ose and Birman in Tough Fight for Primary Finish
DATE:
May 6, 2014 While Democratic Representative Ami Bera maintains a commanding lead among likely primary election voters in California’s 7
th
Congressional District, Republican challengers Doug Ose and Igor Birman are locked in a tough fight for second place finish, according to the DCCC’s latest IVR survey of likely primary voters. Birman’s strong personal favorabilities mean that a last-minute push to grow his profile with voters could propel him past Ose and on to the general election. When asked which candidate voters are likely to support in the June 3
rd
open primary election, Democratic Representative Ami Bera draws more support than all three Republican candidates combined (47% support), a signal of his strong, early standing among voters heading into the general election. Republican Doug Ose finishes in second place with 22% support, followed closely by Republican Igor Birman (17% support) and Republican Elizabeth Emken (7% support). Just 7% of voters remain undecided. However, Birman is the Republican challenger with the most room for growth. Only half of likely voters (50%) are familiar with Birman, compared to 74% name recognition for Ose. More importantly, voters who are familiar enough with Birman to form an opinion about him view him more positively than negatively, while voters familiar with Ose are evenly divided. This indicates that as additional voters get to know Birman in the remaining weeks, his rate of support is likely to improve and he may surpass Ose in overall support. Birman already leads Ose by 9 points among younger primary voters, and 2 points amongIndependent/ DTS voters – a solid foundation from which he may stand to gain in the closing weeks. The Republican nominee will face Representative Ami Bera in the November general election. Representative won CA-07 in 2012 with 53% of the vote, and both the Rothenberg Report and Larry Sabato rate this district as a “Lean Dem” seat.
These results are based on a survey of 567 likely primary election voters conducted May 1-2, 2014 in California’s 7
th
Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via an automated (IVR) survey. The margin of error for this survey is approximately 4.1%.
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