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NSSM200
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCILWASHINGTON, D.C. 20506April 24, 1974National Security Study Memorandum 200--------------------------------------TO: The Secretary of DefenseThe Secretary of AgricultureThe Director of Central IntelligenceThe Deputy Secretary of StateAdministrator, Agency for International DevelopmentSUBJECT: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S.Security and Overseas InterestsThe President has directed a study of the impact of world populationgrowth on U.S. security and overseas interests. The study should lookforward at least until the year 2000, and use several alternativereasonable projections of population growth.In terms of each projection, the study should assess:- the corresponding pace of development, especially in poorercountries;- the demand for US exports, especially of food, and the tradeproblems the US may face arising from competition for re-sources; and- the likelihood that population growth or imbalances willproduce disruptive foreign policies and internationalinstability.The study should focus on the international political and economicimplications of population growth rather than its ecological, socio-logical or other aspects.The study would then offer possible courses of action for the UnitedStates in dealing with population matters abroad, particularly indeveloping countries, with special attention to these questions:- What, if any, new initiatives by the United States are neededto focus international attention on the population problem?- Can technological innovations or development reducegrowth or ameliorate its effects?
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NSSM200
- Could the United States improve its assistance in the populationfield and if so, in what form and through which agencies --bilateral, multilateral, private?The study should take into account the President's concern thatpopulation policy is a human concern intimately related to thedignity of the individual and the objective of the United States is towork closely with others, rather than seek to impose our views onothers.The President has directed that the study be accomplished by theNSC Under Secretaries Committee. The Chairman, Under SecretariesCommittee, is requested to forward the study together with theCommittee's action recommendations no later than May 29,1974 for consideration by the President.HENRY A. KISSINGERcc: Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
 
NSSM 200:IMPLICATIONS OF WORLDWIDE POPULATION GROWTHFOR U.S. SECURITY AND OVERSEAS INTERESTSDecember 10, 1974CLASSIFIED BY Harry C. Blaney, IIISUBJECT TO GENERAL DECLASSIFICATION SCHEDULE OFEXECUTIVE ORDER 11652 AUTOMATICALLY DOWN-GRADED AT TWO YEAR INTERVALS AND DECLASSIFIEDON DECEMBER 31, 1980.
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NSSM200
This document can only be declassified by the White House.----------------------------------------------------------Declassified/Released on 7/3/89-----------under provisions of E.O. 12356by F. Graboske, National Security Council
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWorld Demographic Trends1. World Population growth since World War II is quantitatively andqualitatively different from any previous epoch in human history. Therapid reduction in death rates, unmatched by corresponding birth ratereductions, has brought total growth rates close to 2 percent a year,compared with about 1 percent before World War II, under 0.5 percent in1750-1900, and far lower rates before 1750. The effect is to double theworld's population in 35 years instead of 100 years. Almost 80 million arenow being added each year, compared with 10 million in 1900.2. The second new feature of population trends is the sharpdifferentiation between rich and poor countries. Since 1950, population inthe former group has been growing at 0 to 1.5 percent per year, and in thelatter at 2.0 to 3.5 percent (doubling in 20 to 35 years). Some of thehighest rates of increase are in areas already densely populated and witha weak resource base.3. Because of the momentum of population dynamics, reductions in birthrates affect total numbers only slowly. High birth rates in the recentpast have resulted in a high proportion in the youngest age groups, sothat there will continue to be substantial population increases over manyyears even if a two-child family should become the norm in the future.Policies to reduce fertility will have their main effects on total numbersonly after several decades. However, if future numbers are to be keptwithin reasonable bounds, it is urgent that measures to reduce fertilitybe started and made effective in the 1970's and 1980's. Moreover, programs
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