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November 2005 Paper 7 (S2)Worked solutions for numbers 1 – 3 (Hypothesis Testing):
1. The number of words on a page of a book can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 403and standard deviation 26.8. Find the probability that the average number of words per page in arandomsample of 6 pages is less than 410. [4]
Let X be the number of words on 1 page of a bookX ~ N(403, 26.8²)For n = 6,
 X 
~
 N 
403,26.8
2
6
 P
 X 
410
=
 P
Z 
410
−
40326.8
/
 
6
=
 P
Z 
0.6398
=
0.739Recall: that if X is normally distributed,
 X 
is also normally distributed no matter what size n is.
2. A manufacturer claims that 20% of sugar-coated chocolate beans are red. George suspects that this percentage is actually less than 20% and so he takes a random sample of 15 chocolate beans and performs a hypothesis test with the null hypothesis p = 0.2 against the alternative hypothesis p < 0.2. He decides to reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative hypothesis if there are 0 or 1 redbeans in the sample.(i) With reference to this situation, explain what is meant by a Type I error. [1](ii) Find the probability of a Type I error in George’s test. [3]  H 
0
:p = 0.20
 H 
1
:
p < 0.20Under
 H 
0
, X ~ B(15, 0.20)George does a one-tailed test and rejects
 H 
0
if X = 0 or 1.A type error is made if we say that the percentage of red beans is less than 20% (therebyrejecting
 H 
0
) while in fact it is 20% (
 H 
0
is true)P(type I error) = P(reject
 H 
0
given
 H 
0
is true)= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)=
q
15
151
q
14
 p
1
=
0.8
15
151
0.8
14
0.2
1
=0.167
of 00

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