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Kei Aps Dolan-christensen-gill 4-8 Final Final Paper

Kei Aps Dolan-christensen-gill 4-8 Final Final Paper

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Published by: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) on May 08, 2014
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 ACADEMIC PAPER SERIES
Korea Economic Institute of America
1
Generational Differences in Attitudes Toward Korean Unification
By Thomas P. Dolan, Kyle Christensen, and Kimberly Gill
Abstract
For the past two decades, studies have indicated that popular
support for Korean unicaon is dropping. However, no explanaon is oered for this. This report addressed a 2012 study
undertaken to examine the public opinion of South Koreans to
determine which demographic factors might be inuencing this drop in popular support for unicaon.Because earlier studies of South Korean atudes toward unicaon sampled the populaon in Korea, and were conducted in the Korean language, this study did as well. Factors other than age were examined, including level of educaon, locaon, and military service. Age was found to be the most dominant factor. However, rather than nding that older Koreans were eager for unicaon, the data showed that this group feels that unicaon will never happen. This group (61 and older) shows the greatest desire to either delay unicaon generally, or wait unl there is
no threat from North Korea.
As the older generaon, which views the United States more favorably, passes on, the younger generaon will become a larger percentage of the vong public, which may complicate future dealings with the U.S. and its military presence in the
Korean Peninsula.
This study shows that age is a factor in many aspects of public opinion toward the implicaons of Korean unicaon and toward the presence of U.S. military personnel in Korea. It also reveals signicant leanings about how South Koreans would deal with the connued presence of U.S. military forces aer unicaon.
Key words:
 
unicaon, survey data, Ministry of Unicaon, eld research, age
Introducon
Aer more than 70 years of separaon, both Koreas claim to be pursuing unicaon/ reunicaon.
1
 The Ministry of Unicaon in Seoul, a government agency, and the Commiee for the Peaceful Reunicaon of Korea in Pyongyang, an agency of the Korean
Workers’ Party in North Korea, both assert the importance of
unicaon, but there is no agreement on how unicaon will take place. Scenarios include the German model (essenally the absorpon of the East by the West), and the Vietnam model,
which would be a military conquest of the South by the North.
Neither of these is likely; the German case is very dierent because East and West Germany never fought a war against each other, and their border was comparavely open compared to the Military Demarcaon Line/Demilitarized Zone which separates
the Koreas.
2
 The Vietnamese model is also unlikely because despite North Korea’s relavely large military (compared to South Korea’s), North Korea does not have the resources for a protracted convenonal armed conict. A more likely scenario would be that South Korea (with American help) would defeat North Korea (which would probably not receive direct assistance from China or Russia), but this would be at great cost to both sides.A far more desirable situaon would be for unicaon without armed conict, but this has its own complicaons. Most South Korean and American predicons assume that this type of unicaon would result from regime failure in North Korea.
Most American assessments assume that the failure of the North
Korean regime will occur in the short term, generally within ten years of the me of the study. This me period was used in the 1980s, the 1990s, and is sll being used today. Assessments by
Dr. Thomas Dolan
is Chair of the Polical Science Department and Professor at Columbus State University.
Dr. Kyle Christensen
 is Director of the Social Research Center and Assistant Professor at Columbus State University.
Dr. Kimberly Gill
 is Assistant Professor and Director of the Masters in Public Administraon Program at Columbus State University. Their paper is the sixty-sixth in KEI’s Academic Paper Series. As part of this program, KEI commissions and distributes approximately ten papers per year on original subjects of current interest to over 5,000 Korea watchers, government ocials, think tank experts, and scholars around the United States and the world. At the end of the year, these papers are compiled and published in KEI’s On Korea volume. For more informaon, please visit
www.keia.org/aps_on_korea
.
Korea Economic Instute of America 1800 K Street, NW, Suite 1010Washington, DC 20006www.keia.org
May 8, 2014
Generational Differences in Attitudes Toward Korean Unification
 
2
 ACADEMIC PAPER SERIES
South Korean researchers tend to take a longer view of 30-50 years. These South Korean esmates generally assume that a unied Korea will be one in which the North is absorbed by the South; the proposals oered by North Korea tend to foresee a confederaon in which the North would maintain its current polical structure in a confederaon of the two sides. Studies by the Ministry of Unicaon have indicated that although the ocial government policy pursues unicaon, popular support for unicaon is dropping. However, ocial reports give no explanaon for this. In the summer of 2012 these researchers began a study to examine the public opinion of South Koreans to determine which demographic factors might be inuencing this drop in popular support for unicaon. One hypothesis was that since older Koreans would feel closer es to the North because of remaining family relaonships, they would more strongly support unicaon. As this older generaon becomes a smaller part of the total populaon, overall support for unicaon would appear to reduce. This generaonal dierence, as well as many other demographic factors seen in the survey document (Appendices 1 and 2), was examined with surprising results.
Cost of Unicaon
Esmates of the cost of Korean reunicaon vary widely: from $200-300 million annually to tens of trillions over many decades. The lower esmates appear to be based on the assumpon that aer reunicaon, neither side will need to support the large military expenditures it had before unicaon, and that large savings can be made from military cutbacks. A major problem with this is that if the esmated one million North Korean military personnel are demobilized and simply lose their jobs, a situaon like that which occurred in post-invasion Iraq could result. Any insurgency that might follow would make successful unicaon impossible. This is somemes dismissed with a predicon that the newly-unemployed former military personnel would make up a large labor force, bringing down labor costs and thus smulang the Korean economy.
3
With all the possible scenarios and variables involved in this
queson, no single study has, or could hope to, come up with a nal answer. In reviewing completed studies, the most common
belief was the imminent failure of the Kim dynasty in North Korea.
When one considers that this regime, which began in President Truman’s me (1948) and has existed through the administraon of Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama,
perhaps failure should not be assumed, at least in the short term.
The North Korean regime was established fourteen years before Fidel Castro led the Cuban revoluon.
Reasons to be Skepcal of Regime Failure in the North
The “Arab Spring” of 2011 demonstrates that regimes long in power can be brought down through popular uprising, as seen in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. However, other regimes (Iran and Syria)
have resisted such internal pressure. The successful popular
movements have generally credited social communicaons networks for the ability to coordinate group acons; these networks are not widespread in North Korea. Earlier domesc uprisings against authoritarian governments, such as the 1989
overthrow of Nicolae Ceausescu, took place without modern
communicaons, but in sociees far freer than North Korea.Other paroned countries have reunited, including Vietnam, Germany, and Yemen. The means by which these reunicaons
have occurred vary widely, from military defeat in the case of
Vietnam, to polical collapse in the case of Germany, to polical accommodaon in the case of Yemen. A variety of scenarios under which the Koreas would unite have been proposed. In the early 1990s, the former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Korea, The Honorable Choi Kwang Soo wrote of the consequences that would result “if Kim Jong-Il fails to secure a stable power basis in the post Kim Il-sung period and a power struggle erupts.”
4
 
As with many of the more recent predicons of North Korean regime failure, Minister Choi has been proven wrong. Similarly, Nicholas Eberstadt
5
 and Stares and Wit
6
 have predicted the
imminent failure of the North Korean regime.The German model of reunicaon would involve regime failure
on the part of either North Korea or South Korea. Given the
economic and diplomac success of the South as compared
“As the older generation, which views the United States more favorably, passes on, this younger generation will become a larger percentage of the voting public, which may complicate future dealings with the U.S. and its military presence in the Korean Peninsula.”
 
3
 ACADEMIC PAPER SERIES
with that of the North, only regime failure in the North would be likely. Such failure could occur over a relavely short period, as
postulated by many American researchers
7
 or over a protracted period, as envisioned by most South Korean researchers.
Assuming that South Korea would remain intact to assist the North, a nonviolent reunicaon would result in the issues of the assimilaon of North Koreans, educaon, dealing with the conicng ideologies, nutrion, and of course the cost to bring about long-term stability.In his very thorough study of Korean culture,
Korea and Its Futures: Unicaon and the Unnished War 
, Roy Richard
Grinker went beyond methodological esmaons of the cost of unicaon, and examined some of the basic assumpons about what unicaon would mean to each side. His conclusion was that while the South sees unicaon as “the southern conquest and assimilaon of the north,”
8
 the North envisions a joining of
the two Korean cultures as they exist now. Grinker also examines
the generaonal dierences as South Koreans see the results of unicaon; older South Koreans see unicaon as “an endpoint something to achieve before death” while younger South
Koreans see it as “an event … a place from which to launch an
autonomous and authenc Korean history.”
9
This bifurcaon raises a major issue between the generaons; while older (South) Koreans see the opportunity for unicaon decreasing as they near the end of their lives, younger South Koreans would take the more pragmac approach of delaying unicaon unl the North Korean economy has improved to the stage where the cost of unicaon would be lower, since it is the South that will have to bear the bulk of the nancial burden.
Auerbach, Chun, and Yoo
10
 conclude that most of the costs of
unicaon are likely to fall on the shoulders of current and future generaons of South Koreans due to the disparies between North and South Korea. They conclude that the disparies
between the two states should decrease as North Korea adopts
South Korea’s scal policies and its economy grows.
A detailed recent analysis from the Republic of Korea Ministry
of Unicaon consists of a set of esmates providing short-term (10-year), mid-term (20-year), and long-term (30-year) scenarios and expectaons.
11
 This study esmates that the rst year of unicaon would cost between $47 billion and $213 billion;
12
 at
the upper level, these equate to 6.8 percent of the GDP of the South and 59.9 percent of the GDP of the North, considerably higher than the percentage cost to East and West Germany. Predicons like this are disturbing the younger South Koreans,
who see this as a threat to the economic security and prosperity
they currently enjoy.Another publicaon by the Korea Instute for Naonal Unicaon echoes the declining South Korean interest in naonal unicaon, cing studies which showed that 91.4 percent of South Koreans surveyed in 1994 supported it, with this number falling to 83.9 percent in 2005 and 76.6 percent in 2010. In parcular, younger South Koreans see unicaon as an event that will impact negavely on them personally.
13
 To test
these esmates, this research team conducted an in-country study of South Korean atudes toward unicaon in an aempt to assess the generaonal dierences on the subject.The assumpon on which this study was based is that as the Korean populaon ages, the poron of South Koreans who hold unicaon as a necessary achievement will connue to diminish. This will reduce popular pressure for unicaon and the sacrices it would require. In the 30- to 50-year meframe envisioned by South Korea’s Ministry of Unicaon studies, popular support for unicaon will further erode as older Koreans pass away and become a smaller poron of the populaon.
Percepons and Projecons
One of the premises of this study, and the others cited, is that Korean unicaon will take place eventually. Although the regimes of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il were maintained for over sixty years, the stresses brought about by failed socialism, nature, and a growing awareness in North Korea of its situaon relave to other countries connue to pressure the regime. Nevertheless, a transion to the third generaon, led by Kim Jong-un, has begun and appears to be unchallenged. The younger Kim has gone so far as to execute his uncle Jang Song-taek, the husband of Kim Jong-il’s sister, in establishing his authority. This demonstrates Kim Jong-un’s willingness to hold on to his posion and quesons the assumpon of regime failure in the North.
Most observers believe that North Korea’s economy has
signicantly deteriorated since the 1990s. Famines have
exacerbated the problems and further withered the state. Despite the numerous economic and social problems, North
Korea connues to spend a large amount of its budget on military expenditures and its nuclear weapons program. Along
this unsustainable path, some researchers believe that North
Korea may soon be forced to economically integrate or reunify
Generational Differences in Attitudes Toward Korean Unification

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