Global warming may be responsible in part for some trends in natural disasters such asextreme weather .Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation
but the effects onstorms are less clear. Extratropical storms partly depend on thetemperature gradient,which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms morethan the rest of the hemisphere.
Storm strength leading toextreme weather is increasing, such as the power dissipation
index of hurricane intensity.
Kerry Emanuelwrites that hurricane power dissipation ishighly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming.
. However, a further study by Emanuel using current model output concluded that the increase in power dissipation in recent decades cannot be completely attributed to global warming
.Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO
conditions, are more intense, however, hurricane frequency will bereduced.
Worldwide, the proportion of hurricanesreachingcategories 4 or 5– with
wind speeds above 56 metres per second – has risen from 20% in the 1970s to 35% in the1990s.
Precipitation hitting the US from hurricanes has increased by 7% over thetwentieth century.
Increases in catastrophes resulting from extreme weather are mainly caused by increasing
population densities, and anticipated future increases are similarly dominated by societalchange rather than climate change.
TheWorld Meteorological Organizationexplainsthat “though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectableanthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusioncan be made on this point.”
They also clarified that “no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.”
(2006) have linked theincreasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004directly to the trend in sea surface temperatures.