‘Youruee
MONETIZATION
“ASSUMPTIONS,
YouTube Model Buildup
Below, we offer our tke on seveate build-out and projections far YouTube to serve
15a rwadanp for investors who want co ideatiy the Bkely revenue divers of online
ideo sts.
YouTube — Domestic
+ YouTube PVs Expected to Amount to 3% of Domestic Internet PVs. We
stom with total domestic Iteret ses, which we expect to aro in mer fon
174 alioa in 2008 o 242 aulion ia 2012, by ssrusing steady declining yeor-
coveryear growth over the next five yeas. We then do the same analysis for
‘YouTube in which we assuine the aunber of domestic uique visitors wil grow
fou 30 million in 2006 to ~83 alin in 2012. We alo project the number of|
YouTube ser 9 4 peoent of total Inert user will grow fom 17% in 2006 19
34% in 2012, In reed wo YouTube pages viewed, we expest am increase from
23 billion in 2008 to 172 bilion in 2012. As page views incweas, we also expect
the YouTube percentage of total Tatemet pageviews to gow steal. from 0.4%
in 2006 wo 2.5% in 2012,
+ 2008 Estimates. We expect the anuber of YouTube visitors in 2008 reach $9
nll by yearend 2008, or 14% yenrovenyear growth. We then project
YouTube's pages viewed for 2007, which we expect to be ~83 billion, of yea
oversyenr growth of 76%
+ Banner Ad Monetization Expected to Grow to 23% of PVs by 2012. We
sanipled a numberof pages on YouTube and found that a sigiicant proportion
ofthe eategory pages ore being monetized even as only a handful ofthe pages
with the astal slips have banner advertisements. For conservatism, we use @
15% monetization rate and expect this percentage to intease fo aronnd 23% in
2012, As sich, ot monetized page views on YouTube are exited at around
Seven billion in 2007 and are projected 10 grow to 40 billion by 2012,
‘+ Prime Ad Revenues Estimated at S105 Million by 2012, We extate pene
page views asa percentage of total monetized page views at 100% in 2007 and
project they will decline to 72% iu 2012. We expect prtne CPM to amuoustto
S485 based on conversations with indasty coumats, sine to our estate for
Facebook hit wve detailed in our report Yahoo!'s 100-Day Review: What Should
Yahoo! Do Regarding Social Nenvoria? dated Avguet 1, 2007. We puojet prise
(CPM will gro to $5.70 in 2012, which ie ofa sigatisantdieconat to ovr $18
estimate for Facebook. aot only tbe coasevative but als to sciowledge that
A numberof prea conten provides, ke Viacom, ae building thei ona sites
to offer video. Mulplying prin page views by prime CPM leads us to prise
sevenising revenues, which ar estimated at ~$168 milion by 2012
+ Remnant Ad Revenues Estimated at 6 Million by 2012. In rez to rennaat
page views a5 a percentage of total page views, we estimate 0% in 2007 and
‘tesily increasing to somprise 28% in 2012 as prime inventory declines #6 9
perceatage ofthe foal We estimate remnant CPM st 10% of the prime CPM,
BEAR, STEARNS & CONE Page 27sud pooject this CPM will insrease steadily o $0.57 ia 2012. Muliplyiag
remnant page views ith enmant CPM leds us to remant advertising reves
wih are estimated a ~86 aalionby 2012.
Streaming Ad Net Revennes Estimated at S2E Mion by 2012. YouTube is
just sted offing steaming ads on is sit, aod the business i vater
rdimestury. We estimate the nuser of video teem saved to incense Som
16K in 2007 to 45 milion in 2012, essentially serving steaming video ads 0 5%
ofthe weer by 2012, Video CPM te surentiy evicted at ~$20 fv 2009 (as
UGC CPM sould come ata discount to CPMs fr professional cote), We
asrvatively projet video wl to snctease to $24 by 2012. uliplying video
Sten served by video CPM lends ts #9 gross video srenming advertising
evens, which ae exited at $106 nilion by 2012; farther assy a TAC
sate of 8s, We get at ideo a senming evens of $2 lon i 2012
Revenues Estinated t Increase t0 S277 Milion by 2012 foot S34 Mion in
2007. As sch, add up the various reverse rst to etnate S31 aalion a
reverts 2007 nod $50 milion in 2008: we expetretemies 19 gro fo S277
‘nllicn by 2012, wie peimary diver of the grows being the baer adsxn 25. YouTube Domest Projet
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YouTube — international
For the interantooal YouTube sites, we applied the same methodology fiom the
domestic sites to arrive at our intemtional YouTube estinintes. Our estimates are
noted belo
Exhibit 2, YouTube nernaina Projection
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