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ET AL. 3
not treated with beta-blockers. The difference was sig-
nicant between the two groups (P < 0.0001).
In patients not treated with beta-blockers, the 1-year
probability of survival was 64% (95% CI 52%-
76%), and in patients treated with beta-blockers, it was
19% (95% CI 9%-29%; Fig. 2). In patients not
treated with beta-blockers, the 2-year probability of sur-
vival was 45% (95% CI 31%-59%), and in patients
treated with beta-blockers, it was 9% (95% CI 0%-
19%; Fig. 2). The differences were signicantly differ-
ent (P < 0.0001). The causes of death were not signi-
cantly different between the two groups.
Factors Associated With Mortality. Results of the
univariate analysis of factors associated with mortality
are found in Table 2. Signicant univariate predictors
of death were introduced into the multivariate Cox
regression model. The independent factors predicting
death were the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma,
Child-Pugh class C, underlying etiologies of refractory
ascites, and beta-blocker therapy (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2. Kaplan-Meier curves for the survival of patients with cirrhosis
and refractory ascites who received beta-blockers and those who did
not.
Table 2. Univariate Cox Regression Predicting Mortality
(Crude HRs with 95% CIs)
Variable HR (95% CI) P Value
Age, years 1.02 (1.00-1.03) 0.0402
MELD-Na score 1.11 (1.01-1.21) 0.0254
Esophageal varices, presence of 2.11 (1.70-2.61) <0.0001
Beta-blockers, presence of 4.00 (2.58-6.20) <0.0001
Child-Pugh class C 2.41 (1.51-3.85) 0.0002
Hepatocellular carcinoma, presence of 2.13 (1.39-3.26) 0.0005
Cause of cirrhosis 1.15 (1.05-1.25) 0.0028
Prothrombin time, % of normal 0.98 (0.96-0.99) 0.0132
International normalized ratio 2.46 (1.44-4.20) 0.0010
Serum bilirubin concentration, mg/dL 1.01 (1.00-1.01) 0.0201
Etiology of refractory ascites 3.03 (2.28-4.02) <0.0001
Renal impairment 3.10 (1.65-5.85) 0.0005
Severe hyponatremia (125 mEq/L) 9.26 (5.05-16.98) <0.0001
Ascitic uid protein concentration, g/L 0.93 (0.88-0.98) 0.0072
Serum sodium concentration, mEq/L 0.92 (0.89-0.95) <0.0001
Heart rate, bpm 0.94 (0.91-0.96) <0.0001
Arterial systolic blood pressure, mm Hg 0.97 (0.95-0.98) <0.0001
Fig. 3. Independent predictors of death in the Cox multivariate regression. Filled squares indicate point estimates (with the area proportional
to the number of events). Horizontal lines indicate 95% CIs. The different etiologies of refractory ascites have been divided into the subcategories
renal impairment (HR 3.27) and hyponatremia (dened as a sodium level 125 mmol/L; HR 7.07), with maximal diuretic treatment
used as the reference category (not shown; HR 1).
4 SERSTE
ET AL. 5
clearly identied as a poor prognostic factor in cirrho-
sis,
21,23,25,26
the exact relationship between hyponatre-
mia and the prognosis of cirrhosis remains unclear.
Hyponatremia could be a reection of systemic hemo-
dynamic disorders related to the severity of cirrhosis.
11
In addition, renal impairment (a reason for not using
diuretic therapy) was an independent predictor of
mortality. Renal impairment is known to be an indica-
tor of poor prognosis in cirrhosis.
4
Together, these
ndings suggest that diuretic-intractable refractory asci-
tes (due to severe hyponatremia or renal impairment)
may be worse than diuretic-resistant refractory ascites.
In conclusion, the present study shows that the use
of nonselective beta-blockers is associated with poor
survival in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites
and suggests that these drugs should be contraindi-
cated in these patients. This study also shows that the
Child-Pugh score (but not MELD score) is a predic-
tive factor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and
refractory ascites.
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