Four hundred one (401) voters in Alabama Congressional District 6 were interviewed in a random sample taken May 6-9, 2014. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey is +4.9%, with a 95% confidence level.
Test Ballot Analysis
The Republican Primary for Alabama’s Congressional District 6 is wide open, with five of the seven candidates in position potentially to qualify for a run-off. * Former State Representative Paul DeMarco currently leads the race with 24% of the vote. DeMarco benefits from the highest positive name identification (62% overall, 51% positive) and solid support from the “over the mountain” communities of Vestavia Hills and Hoover. * Scott Beason is currently in second place with 17% of the vote. Beason benefits from solid support in Gardendale and in Blount County, but lacks strong support in the “over the mountain” areas. He has the second highest name identification (51% overall), but his negative ratings (24%) are the highest of the seven candidates. * Chad Mathis is in third place with 14%. His overall name identification is at 35%, with most of that being positive ratings (28%). Still, at 35%, his overall name identification is relatively low. * Will Brooke (8%) and Gary Palmer (7%) are essentially tied for fourth place. Both suffer from low name identification (Brooke, 28%; Palmer, 33%). * Robert Shattuck and Tom Vignuelle are the only two candidates who are essentially “out of the running” at this point in the campaign. Each has low vote support (2% for Vignuelle, 0% for Shattuck), low name identification (Vignuelle, 15%; Shattuck, 11%), and relatively high negative ratings (Vignuelle, 6%; Shattuck, 7%).
A second choice ballot was used to assess potential run-off scenarios. Using this approach: * In a
DeMarco vs. Beason runoff
, DeMarco would have an 11-point lead, 32% to 21%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Mathis runoff,
DeMarco would have an 18-point lead, 35% to 17%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Brooke runoff
, DeMarco would have a 23-point lead, 32% to 9%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Palmer runoff,
DeMarco would have a 25-point lead, 36% to 11%. * In a
Beason vs. Mathis runoff
, Beason would have a 6-point lead, 24% to 18%. * In a
Beason vs. Brooke runoff,
Beason would have a 9-point lead, 25% to 16%. * In a
Beason vs. Palmer runoff,
Beason would have a 13-point lead, 24% to 11%. * In a
Mathis vs. Brooke runoff,
Mathis would have a 1-point lead, 17% to 16%. * In a
Mathis vs. Palmer runoff,
Mathis would have a 6-point lead, 17% to 11%.