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Alabama Forestry Association 6th District poll

Alabama Forestry Association 6th District poll

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Published by Madison Underwood
Alabama Forestry Association 6th District poll
Alabama Forestry Association 6th District poll

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Published by: Madison Underwood on May 12, 2014
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05/13/2014

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1
Larry Powell Hoover, AL 35226
Tracking Poll Alabama Congressional District 6 Conducted for
Alabama Forestry Association
May, 2014
 
 
2
METHODOLOGY
Four hundred one (401) voters in Alabama Congressional District 6 were interviewed in a random sample taken May 6-9, 2014. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey is +4.9%, with a 95% confidence level.
CONCLUSIONS
Test Ballot Analysis
The Republican Primary for Alabama’s Congressional District 6 is wide open, with five of the seven candidates in position potentially to qualify for a run-off. * Former State Representative Paul DeMarco currently leads the race with 24% of the vote. DeMarco benefits from the highest positive name identification (62% overall, 51% positive) and solid support from the “over the mountain” communities of Vestavia Hills and Hoover. * Scott Beason is currently in second place with 17% of the vote. Beason benefits from solid support in Gardendale and in Blount County, but lacks strong support in the “over the mountain” areas. He has the second highest name identification (51% overall), but his negative ratings (24%) are the highest of the seven candidates. * Chad Mathis is in third place with 14%. His overall name identification is at 35%, with most of that being positive ratings (28%). Still, at 35%, his overall name identification is relatively low. * Will Brooke (8%) and Gary Palmer (7%) are essentially tied for fourth place. Both suffer from low name identification (Brooke, 28%; Palmer, 33%). * Robert Shattuck and Tom Vignuelle are the only two candidates who are essentially “out of the running” at this point in the campaign. Each has low vote support (2% for Vignuelle, 0% for Shattuck), low name identification (Vignuelle, 15%; Shattuck, 11%), and relatively high negative ratings (Vignuelle, 6%; Shattuck, 7%).
 Run-Off Scenarios
A second choice ballot was used to assess potential run-off scenarios. Using this approach: * In a
DeMarco vs. Beason runoff 
, DeMarco would have an 11-point lead, 32% to 21%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Mathis runoff,
DeMarco would have an 18-point lead, 35% to 17%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Brooke runoff 
, DeMarco would have a 23-point lead, 32% to 9%. * In a
DeMarco vs. Palmer runoff,
DeMarco would have a 25-point lead, 36% to 11%. * In a
Beason vs. Mathis runoff 
, Beason would have a 6-point lead, 24% to 18%. * In a
Beason vs. Brooke runoff,
Beason would have a 9-point lead, 25% to 16%. * In a
Beason vs. Palmer runoff,
Beason would have a 13-point lead, 24% to 11%. * In a
Mathis vs. Brooke runoff,
Mathis would have a 1-point lead, 17% to 16%. * In a
Mathis vs. Palmer runoff,
 Mathis would have a 6-point lead, 17% to 11%.
 
 
3
ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL QUESTIONS
Overall Favorability
Favorability ratings were measured for Governor Robert Bentley, State Senator Scott Beason, Businessman Will Brooke, State Representative Paul DeMarco, Gary Palmer, Chad Mathis, Robert Shattuck, and Tom Vignuelle. Possible responses included very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, very unfavorable, recognize the name but can't rate, and don't recognize the name.
VF F UF VUF CR DR Governor Robert Bentley 26%54%7%3%9% 1%State Senator Scott Beason 9%28%13%11%27% 12%Businessman Will Brooke 6%14%6%2%33% 38%State Rep. Paul DeMarco 15% 36% 8% 3% 23% 15% Chad Mathis 9%19%5%2%27% 38%Gary Palmer 6%19%6%2%30% 39%Robert Shattuck -- 4% 4% 3% 25% 65% Tom Vignuelle 3% 6% 5% 1% 24% 62%
By combining the "very favorable" and "favorable" responses into a single positive category, and combining the "very unfavorable" and "unfavorable" into a single negative, a positive-to-negative ratio can be computed for the ratings of each individual tested in this survey. Using this approach,
several points become apparent.
 
* Governor Robert Bentley
 receives a rating of 80% positive and 10% negative. This reflexes an 8-to-1 positive ratio.
* State Senator Scott Beason
 receives a rating of 37% positive and 24% negative. This falls  below a 2-to-1 positive ratio that is usually considered the minimum for a candidate. His ratings are somewhat higher among 50-64 year old voters (44:25), in Blount County (54:23), and in Gardendale (58:25). He receives negative ratings in Mountain Brook (14:38).
* Businessman Will Brooke
receives a rating of 20% positive and 8% negative. This exceeds a 2-to-1 positive ratio. His ratings are higher in Mountain Brook (52:0), but he receives negative ratings in Blount County (4:12).
* State Representative Paul DeMarco
receives a rating of 51 % positive and 11 % negative. This is the highest rating of any of the congressional candidates, and it approaches a 5-to-1 positive ratio. His ratings are higher in Mountain Brook (67: 10) and Hoover (78:7). His ratings are lower in Blount County (39:12).
* Chad Mathis
receives a rating of 28% positive and 8% negative. This reflexes a 4-to-1  positive ratio, but he is not recognized by 38% of the voters.
* Gary Palmer
receives a rating of 25% positive and 7% negative. This approaches a 4-to-1  positive ratio, but he is not recognized by 39% of the voters.
* Robert Shattuck
receives a rating of 4% positive and 7% negative, but he is not recognized  by 65% of the voters. His ratings approach a 2-to-1 negative ratio.
* Tom Vignuelle
receives a rating of 9% positive and 6% negative, but he is not recognized  by 62% of the voters. His ratings drop below a 2-to-1 positive ratio.

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