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Ung Dung Excel Trong Phan Tich Hoi Quy Va Tuong Quan

Ung Dung Excel Trong Phan Tich Hoi Quy Va Tuong Quan

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Published by Jessievan

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Published by: Jessievan on Nov 11, 2009
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01/06/2013

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1
\u1ee8 NG D\u1ee4 NG EXCEL TRONG
H\u1ed2 IQUYT\u01af \u01a0 NG QUAN V\u00c0 D\u1ef0 B\u00c1O KINH T\u1ebe

C\u00e1c y\u1ebf u t\u1ed1 trong m\u1ed7 i ho\u1ea1 t \u0111\u1ed9 ng s\u1ea3 n xu\u1ea5 t kinh doanh lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 m\u1ed1 i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 m\u1ead t thi\u1ebf t v\u1edb i nhau. X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5 t ch\u1eb7 t ch\u1ebd c\u1ee7 a c\u00e1c m\u1ed1 i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 gi\u1eef a c\u00e1c y\u1ebf u t\u1ed1 v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5 ng c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebf t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3 n l\u00fd r\u1ea5 t nhi\u1ec1 u trong vi\u1ec7 c ho\u1ea1 ch \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1 ch s\u1ea3 n xu\u1ea5 t kinh doanh hi\u1ec7 n t\u1ea1 i c\u0169 ng nh\u01b0 trong t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng lai.

4.1\u1ee8 NG D\u1ee4 NG EXCEL TRONG D\u1ef0 B\u00c1O KINH T\u1ebe
4.1.1 \u00dd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7 a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf
D\u1ef1 b\u00e1ol\u00e0 ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1eef ng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7 n s\u1ebd x\u1ea3 y ra trong t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng lai tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf
ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khoa h\u1ecd c c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7 u c\u1ee7 a qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7 n t\u1ea1 i nh\u1edd m\u1ed9 t s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n
h\u1ecd c.D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7 c \u0111\u01b0 a ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u1eef ng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7 n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd x\u1ea3 y ra
trong t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng lai d\u1ef1 a tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khoa h\u1ecd c c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7 a qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9

v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7 n t\u1ea1 i. Ch\u1eb3 ng h\u1ea1 n, nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3 n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 a tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u v\u1ec1 doanh thu b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7 a k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0 \u1edb c v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0 a ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0 \u1edd ng ti\u1ec1 m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7 a doanh nghi\u1ec7 p trong t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng lai. Do \u0111\u00f3, trong ho\u1ea1 t \u0111\u1ed9 ng s\u1ea3 n xu\u1ea5 t kinh doanh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111em l\u1ea1 i \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5 t l\u1edb n. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ead p c\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1 ch qu\u1ea3 n tr\u1ecb s\u1ea3 n xu\u1ea5 t v\u00e0 marketing t\u1ea1 o t\u00ednh hi\u1ec7 u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 s\u1ee9 c c\u1ea1 nh tranh cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebf n l\u01b0 \u1ee3 c s\u1ea3 n xu\u1ea5 t trong

t\u01b0 \u01a1 nglai.

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o mang t\u00ednh khoa h\u1ecd c v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecf i c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9 t ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1ead t d\u1ef1 a tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khoa h\u1ecd c c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u thu th\u1ead p \u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c. B\u1edf i l\u1ebd c\u0169 ng d\u1ef1 a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u th\u1edd i gian nh\u01b0 ng l\u1ea5 y s\u1ed1 l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau, m\u1ee9 c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1edf nh\u1eef ng th\u1edd i gian cu\u1ed1 i nhi\u1ec1 u hay \u00edt s\u1ebd khi\u1ebf n cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ph\u1ea3 n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7 y \u0111\u1ee7 hay kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea7 y \u0111\u1ee7 nh\u1eef ng

thay \u0111\u1ed5 i c\u1ee7 a c\u00e1c nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 m\u1edb i \u0111\u1ed1 i v\u1edb i s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 ng c\u1ee7 a hi\u1ec7 n t\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng. Do v\u1ead y m\u00e0 d\u1ef1
b\u00e1o v\u1eeb a mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 quan v\u1eeb a mang t\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch quan. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o mu\u1ed1 n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c
th\u00ec c\u00e0ng c\u1ea7 n ph\u1ea3 i lo\u1ea1 i tr\u1eeb t\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 quan c\u1ee7 a ng\u01b0 \u1edd i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.
4.1.2 Gi\u1edb i thi\u1ec7 u c\u00e1c ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf
\ue013
2

Ng\u00e0y nay d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3\u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c s\u1eed d\u1ee5 ng r\u1ea5 t r\u1ed9 ng r\u00e3i trong m\u1ecd i l\u0129nh v\u1ef1 c c\u1ee7 a \u0111\u1edd i s\u1ed1 ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9 i v\u1edb i nhi\u1ec1 u lo\u1ea1 i v\u00e0 ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p l\u1ea5 y \u00fd ki\u1ebf n ban \u0111i\u1ec1 u h\u00e0nh, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p \u0111i\u1ec1 u tra ng\u01b0 \u1edd i ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p

Delphi\u2026 Trong th\u1ed1 ng k\u00ea ng\u01b0 \u1edd i ta s\u1eed d\u1ee5 ng r\u1ea5 t nhi\u1ec1 u ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c nhau
nh\u01b0 : ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3 n \u0111\u01a1 n, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1 n, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng
ph\u00e1p san b\u1eb1 ng h\u00e0m m\u0169 ... Ch\u01b0 \u01a1 ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ead p \u0111\u1ebf n ba ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p l\u00e0: ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng
ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1 n, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh\u0111\u1ed9 ng, ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p h\u1ed3 i quy
t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng quan\u2026
\ue001Ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1 n: S\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o b\u1eb1 ng trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ed9 ng
c\u1ee7 a c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t th\u1ef1 c t\u1ebf tr\u01b0 \u1edb c \u0111\u00f3.
C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 c:
nD
F
ni
i
t
t
\ue003
\ue005
\ue003
\ue002\ue005
1
0
1
Trong \u0111\u00f3: Ft+1 l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u1edf k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 t+ 1
Dt l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t \u1edf k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 t
n t\u1ed5 ng s\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t
Ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y l\u00e0m san b\u1eb1 ng s\u1ef1 ng\u1eab u nhi\u00ean, n\u00f3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3 p v\u1edb i nh\u1eef ng m\u00f4
h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng t\u0103ng (gi\u1ea3 m) tuy\u1ec7 t \u0111\u1ed1 i li\u00ean ho\u00e0n x\u1ea5 p x\u1ec9 nhau (d\u00f2ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u
\u0111\u1ec1 u). Tuy nhi\u00ean, kh\u1ed1 i l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n nhi\u1ec1 u v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3 i l\u01b0 utr\u1eef nhi\u1ec1 u s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u.
\ue001Ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 ng: S\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u1edf k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 t +1 b\u1eb1ng trung
b\u00ecnh c\u1ed9 ng c\u1ee7 a n k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0 \u1edb c \u0111\u00f3. Nh\u01b0 v\u1ead y, c\u1ee9 m\u1ed7 i k\u1ef3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u1ea1 i b\u1ecf \u0111i s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u xa nh\u1ea5 t
trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u00e0 th\u00eam v\u00e0o s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7 u m\u1edb i nh\u1ea5 t.
C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9 c:
1...
1
1
\ue002
\ue002
\ue002
\ue002
\ue005
\ue003
\ue003
\ue002
n
D
D
D
F
n
t
t
t
t
Th\u01b0 \u1edd ng th\u00ec ng\u01b0 \u1edd i ta l\u1ea5 y n l\u00e0kh\u00e1 nh\u1ecf n = 3, 4, 5\u2026
\u0110\u00e2y c\u0169 ng l\u00e0 ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3 p v\u1edb i nh\u1eef ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c
l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng t\u0103ng (gi\u1ea3 m) tuy\u1ec7 t \u0111\u1ed1 i li\u00ean ho\u00e0n x\u1ea5 p x\u1ec9 nhau.
3

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3 i quy nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9 u m\u1ed1 i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c c\u1ee7 a m\u1ed9 t bi\u1ebf n (g\u1ecd i l\u00e0 bi\u1ebf n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c hay bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c gi\u1ea3 i th\u00edch) v\u1edb i m\u1ed9 t hay nhi\u1ec1 u bi\u1ebf n kh\u00e1c (\u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c g\u1ecd i l\u00e0 (c\u00e1c) bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p hay bi\u1ebf n gi\u1ea3 i th\u00edch c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebf t) nh\u1eb1 m \u01b0 \u1edb c l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7 a bi\u1ebf n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c v\u1edb i c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebf t c\u1ee7 a (c\u00e1c) bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p.

+M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh (m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy \u0111\u01b0 \u1edd ng th\u1eb3 ng): l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy n\u00f3i l\u00ean m\u1ee9 c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh c\u1ee7 a m\u1ed9 t bi\u1ebf n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c v\u1edb i m\u1ed9 t hay nhi\u1ec1 u bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p m\u00e0 ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7 a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy c\u00f3 d\u1ea1 ng tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1 i v\u1edb i c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 .

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy t\u1ed5 ng th\u1ec3 g\u1ed3 m k bi\u1ebf n:

Yi =\ue00a1 +\ue00a2X2i +\ue00a3X3i + ... +\ue00akXki + Ui
Trong\u0111\u00f3 Ui l\u00e0 sai s\u1ed1 ng\u1eab u nhi\u00ean.
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy m\u1eab u t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng \u1ee9 ng l\u00e0:

y =\ue001\u02c61 +\ue001\u02c62x2 i +\ue001\u02c63x3i +...+\ue001\u02c6kxki + ui
Trong \u0111\u00f3,\ue001\u02c61, \ue001\u02c62, \ue001\u02c63,..., \ue001\u02c6k l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u01b0 \u1edb c l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng \u0111i\u1ec3 m v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec7 ch c\u1ee7 a\ue00a1,
\ue00a2, \ue00a3, ..., \ue00ak b\u1eb1 ng ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p b\u00ecnh ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng nh\u1ecf nh\u1ea5 t. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1 i l\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng ng\u1eab u
nhi\u00ean, v\u1edb i m\u1ed7 i m\u1eab u kh\u00e1c nhau ch\u00fang c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb kh\u00e1c nhau. ui l\u00e0 c\u00e1c sai s\u1ed1 ng\u1eab u
nhi\u00ean g\u00e2y ra sai l\u1ec7 ch c\u1ee7 a y v\u1edb i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7 a n\u00f3.
Trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ta ch\u1ea5 p nh\u1ead n gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebf t c\u00e1c bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p, kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng
t\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng sai kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5 i. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1 c t\u1ebf , khi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9 u c\u00e1c tr\u01b0 \u1edd ng
h\u1ee3 p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ng\u01b0 \u1edd i ta ti\u1ebf n h\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng sai v\u00e0 t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng quan tr\u01b0 \u1edb c \u0111\u1ec3 th\u0103m
d\u00f2 d\u1ea1 ng c\u1ee7 a m\u1ed1 i quan h\u1ec7 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c \u0111\u1ed3 ng th\u1edd i ki\u1ec3 m tra xem c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7 n t\u01b0 \u1ee3 ng t\u1ef1
t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng quan, \u0111a c\u1ed9 ng tuy\u1ebf n hay ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng sai thay \u0111\u1ed5 i kh\u00f4ng (th\u01b0 \u1edd ng d\u00f9ng th\u1ee7 t\u1ee5 c
ki\u1ec3 m \u0111\u1ecbnh Dolbin Watsern).
M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh quan h\u1ec7 tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1 ng tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf m\u1ed1 i li\u00ean h\u1ec7
gi\u1eef a m\u1ed9 t bi\u1ebf n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c Y v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1 u bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p X \u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c g\u1ecd i l\u00e0m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy
tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh b\u1ed9 i. Khi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh quan h\u1ec7 tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1 ng tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf m\u1ed1 i
li\u00ean h\u1ec7 gi\u1eef a hai bi\u1ebf n (bi\u1ebf n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9 c Y v\u00e0 bi\u1ebf n \u0111\u1ed9 c l\u1ead p X) th\u00ec\u0111\u01b0 \u1ee3 c g\u1ecd i l\u00e0m\u00f4
h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3 i quy tuy\u1ebf n t\u00ednh \u0111\u01a1 n.
\ue001Ph\u01b0 \u01a1 ng ph\u00e1p h\u1ed3 i quy t\u01b0 \u01a1 ng quan:

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