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ca31 poll

ca31 poll

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Published by Emily Cahn
ca31 poll obtained by CQ Roll Call
ca31 poll obtained by CQ Roll Call

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Published by: Emily Cahn on May 14, 2014
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09/18/2014

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May 13, 2014
To:
Interested Parties
From: Re: 
Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak, and Kiel Brunner; Tulchin Research
Survey Results in California Congressional District 31
This past week, Tulchin Research conducted a tracking survey among 400 likely June
2014 primary voters in California’s 31
st
 Congressional district. Our poll finds an increasingly challenging dynamic for Democrats in this open primary election, with four Democratic candidates continuing to split the Democratic vote and three of those candidates now attracting roughly equal support. This dynamic leaves the door open for a scenario in which two Republicans clear the primary and Democrats are shut out of the general election, as they were in 2012. Here we present our research findings.
Evolution of the Race
 Our poll finds the percentage of voters who are undecided has dropped from 30 percent in our previous poll (conducted April 14-17 among 600 likely June 2014 primary voters) to 18 percent now, indicating that voters are beginning to make up their minds in this race. While most of the candidates have attracted a share of those previously undecided voters, Democrat Joe Baca has seen the most noteworthy gains
. Baca’s support grew 5
points among all voters (from 8% in April to 13% now) and he increased his support among Democrats by 11 points (from 12% in April to 23% now). While Baca appears to be at or near his support ceiling and is extraordinarily unlikely to clear the primary, this development has further diluted the Democratic vote and increases the odds that two Republican candidates could finish first and second in June, denying Democrats an opportunity to compete in November.
CA-31 June 2014 Primary
ALL LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
Apr 14 -17 May 7-8 Shift Apr 14 - 17 May 7 - 8 Shift
Pete Aguilar (D)
15% 15% +0 27% 24% -3
Eloise Gomez Reyes (D)
12% 13% +1 22% 21% -1
Danny Tillman (D)
 
6% 6% +0 9% 11% +2
Joe Baca (D)
8% 13% +5 12% 23% +11
Paul Chabot (R)
21% 23% +2 4% 4% +0
Lesli Gooch (R)
4% 6% +2 1% 1% +0
Ryan Downing (R)
4% 7% +3 1% 1% +0
Undecided
30% 18% -12 24% 15% -9  Absent one of the leading Democrats experiencing a drop in support resulting from a negative attack, the November shutout scenario will continue to remain a real possibility, particularly as long-time Congressional aide and lobbyist Lesli Gooch begins spending

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