24

6 JAM

1 JAM
1 JAM
2 JAM
2 JAM

2000

1500

1000

500

0
8:00

4 JAM

2500

7:00

2 JAM

3000

6:00

1 JAM
2 JAM

2750
2500
2500
2250
1750
1750
1600
1600
1500
1500
1500
1500
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1000
800
750
750
500
500

5:00

1 JAM
2 JAM

4:00

DURASI
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

3:00

BEBAN (KW)
3000
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650
2600
2550
2500
2450
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1800
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2:00

BEBAN (KW)
500
500
750
800
1000
1250
1500
1600
1250
1250
1250
1500
1600
1750
1500
1250
1250
1750
2500
2750
2500
2250
1500
750

1:00

JAM
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

0:00

NO.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

1 JAM
1 JAM
2 JAM

6 JAM

4 JAM

2 JAM

1 JAM
2 JAM

1 JAM
2 JAM

23:00

22:00

21:00

20:00

19:00

18:00

17:00

16:00

15:00

14:00

13:00

12:00

11:00

10:00

9:00

8:00

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2 JAM

2 JAM

DATA UNIT DAN FOR

Unit 1
1250
Unit 2
750
Unit 3
1000
Unit 4
500
TABEL 1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
TABEL 2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
FOR4
unit 4 / Cn
TABEL 3
P4(x)
P(4) 0
P(4) 500
P(4) 750
P(4) 1000
P(4) 1250
P(4) 1250
P(4) 1500
P(4) 1750
P(4) 1750
P(4) 2000
P(4) 2250
P(4) 2250

FOR1
FOR2
FOR3
FOR4

0.04
0.06
0.03
0.02

PROBABILITY INDIVIDU & KOMULATIF DAN LOLP 3 UNIT PEMBANGKIT

UNIT
Probability
Daya
Daya
Operasi Terganggu
2
3
Individu
Komulatif
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0

1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0

3000
2250
2000
1750
1250
1000
750
0

0
750
1000
1250
1750
2000
2250
3000

0.8753
0.0559
0.0271
0.0365
0.0017
0.0023
0.0011
0.0001

1.000000
0.124672
0.068800
0.041728
0.005256
0.003528
0.001200
0.000072

t (jam)

LOLP

0
1
0
2
6
1
2
0

0.0000
0.1247
0.0000
0.0835
0.0315
0.0035
0.0024
0.0000

PROBABILITY INDIVIDU & KOMULATIF DAN LOLP 3 UNIT PEMBANGKIT

UNIT
Probability
Daya
Daya
Operasi Terganggu
2
3
4
Individu
Komulatif
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0

1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0

1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2250
2000
1750
1750
1500
1250
1250
1000
750
500
0

0
500
750
1000
1250
1250
1500
1750
1750
2000
2250
2250
2500
2750
3000
3500

0.857821
0.017507
0.054755
0.026531
0.001117
0.035743
0.000541
0.001693
0.000729
0.002281
0.000035
0.001105
0.000047
0.000023
0.000071
0.000001

0.02
500
PEMBUKTIAN TABEL 2 DIDAPAT MELALUI PERSAMAAN
P3(x)

1-FOR4

P3(x-C4)

value P3(x-Cn)

FOR4

value P4(x)

0.8753
0.0000
0.0559
0.0271
0.0365
0.0365
0.0000
0.0017
0.0017
0.0023
0.0011
0.0011

0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98

-500
0
250
500
750
750
1000
1250
1250
1500
1750
1750

0.0000
0.8753
0.0000
0.0000
0.0559
0.0559
0.0271
0.0365
0.0365
0.0000
0.0017
0.0017

0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02

0.857821
0.017507
0.054755
0.026531
0.036860
0.000541
0.002423
0.002281
0.001140

1.000000
0.142179
0.124672
0.069917
0.043387
0.042269
0.006527
0.005985
0.004292
0.003563
0.001281
0.001247
0.000141
0.000095
0.000072
0.000001

t (jam)

LOLP

0
0
1
0

0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.000000

0.085656

0.000000

0.020555

0.014250

0.015166

1
2
2
0

0.000141
0.000189
0.000144
0.000000

P(4) 2500
P(4) 2750
P(4) 3000
P(4) 3500

TABEL 4
Daya
Terganggu

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
0

0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0000

0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98

2000
2250
2500
3000

0.0023
0.0011
0.0000
0.0001

0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02

0.000047
0.000023
0.000071
0.000001

PERBANDINGAN PROBABILITY KOMULATIF & LOLP DARI PENAMBAHAN 3 MENJADI 4 UNIT PEMBANGKIT
Daya
Prob. Kom. Prob. Kom.
LOLP 3 Unit LOLP 4 Unit
3 Unit
4 Unit
Operasi
0.000000
0.000072
0.000000
0.000000
0.001200
0.003528
0.005256
0.000000
0.041728
0.068800
0.124672
0.000000
1.000000

0.000001
0.000072
0.000095
0.000141
0.002528
0.003563
0.010277
0.006527
0.085656
0.069917
0.124672
0.142179
1.000000

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
0

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.000000
0.083456
0.000000
0.031536
0.003528
0.002400
0.000000
0.000000

0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.000000
0.085656
0.000000
0.020555
0.014250
0.015166
0.000141
0.000189
0.000144
0.000000

DATA UNIT DAN FOR

Unit 1
1250
Unit 2
750
Unit 3
1000
Unit 4
500
TABEL 1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
TABEL 2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
FOR4
unit 4 / Cn
TABEL 3
P3(x)
P(3) 0
P(3) 750
P(3) 1000
P(3) 1250
P(3) 1750
P(3) 2000
P(3) 2250
P(3) 3000

TABEL 4
Daya
Terganggu

FOR1
FOR2
FOR3
FOR4

0.04
0.06
0.03
0.02

PROBABILITY INDIVIDU & KOMULATIF DAN LOLP 3 UNIT PEMBANGKIT

UNIT
Probability
Daya
Daya
Operasi Terganggu
2
3
Individu Komulatif
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0

1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0

3000
2250
2000
1750
1250
1000
750
0

0
750
1000
1250
1750
2000
2250
3000

0.8753
0.0559
0.0271
0.0365
0.0017
0.0023
0.0011
0.0001

1.0000
0.1247
0.0688
0.0417
0.0053
0.0035
0.0012
0.0001

t (jam)

LOLP

0
1
2
2
6
1
2
0

0.0000
0.1247
0.1376
0.0835
0.0315
0.0035
0.0024
0.0000

PROBABILITY INDIVIDU & KOMULATIF DAN LOLP 3 UNIT PEMBANGKIT

UNIT
Probability
Daya
Daya
Operasi Terganggu Individu
2
3
4
Komulatif
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0

1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0

1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2250
2000
1750
1750
1500
1250
1250
1000
750
500
0

0
500
750
1000
1250
1250
1500
1750
1750
2000
2250
2250
2500
2750
3000
3500

0.857821
0.017507
0.054755
0.026531
0.001117
0.035743
0.000541
0.001693
0.000729
0.002281
0.000035
0.001105
0.000047
0.000023
0.000071
0.000001

1.000000
0.142179
0.124672
0.069917
0.043387
0.042269
0.006527
0.005985
0.004292
0.003563
0.001281
0.001247
0.000141
0.000095
0.000072
0.000001

0.02
500
PEMBUKTIAN TABEL 2 DIDAPAT MELALUI PERSAMAAN
P4(x)
0.857821
0.054755
0.026531
0.036860
0.002423
0.002281
0.001140
0.000071

1-FOR4

P3(x-C4)

value P3(x-Cn)

FOR4

value P4(x)

0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98

-500
250
500
750
1250
1500
1750
2500

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.055872
0.036472
0.000000
0.001728
0.000000

0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02

0.8753
0.0559
0.0271
0.0365
0.0017
0.0023
0.0011
0.0001

PERBANDINGAN LOLP - PENGURANGAN 4 UNIT MENJADI 3 UNIT PEMBANGKIT

Daya
LOLP 3
Prob. Kom. 4 Prob. Kom.
LOLP 4 Unit
Unit
3 Unit
Operasi
Unit

t (jam)

LOLP

0
0
1
2

0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.139835

0.085656

0.000000

0.020555

0.014250

0.015166

1
2
2
0

0.000141
0.000189
0.000144
0.000000

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
0

0.000001
0.000072
0.000095
0.000141
0.002528
0.003563
0.010277
0.006527
0.085656
0.069917
0.124672
0.142179
1.000000

0.000000
0.000072
0.000000
0.000000
0.001200
0.003528
0.005256
0.000000
0.041728
0.068800
0.124672
0.000000
1.000000

3500
3000
2750
2500
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
0

0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.139835
0.085656
0.000000
0.020555
0.014250
0.015166
0.000141
0.000189
0.000144
0.000000

0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.124672
0.137600
0.083456
0.000000
0.031536
0.003528
0.002400
0.000000
0.000000