Eurasia Insight
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TAJIKISTAN: SEVERE WINTER WEATHER MEANS LOOMINGPESTILENCE AND HUNGER
Konstantin Parshin and Kambiz Arman: 2/20/08The United Nations is stepping in to try to rescue Tajikistan from a social catastrophe brought on bysevere winter weather. But even if an emergency UN appeal for assistance generates a robustinternational response, it is questionable whether Tajikistan will be able to avoid entering adownward spiral, featuring pestilence and widespread hunger.On February 18, the UN issued a “flash appeal,” calling for an immediate international infusion of $25.1 million in assistance to Tajikistan. “At least 260,000 people are in need of immediate foodassistance,” the appeal stated grimly. “Moreover, the government reports that up to 2 million peoplemay require food assistance through the end of the winter, if limited food and fuel supplies in ruralareas are not replenished.” In all, almost one-third of the country’s population of just over 7 millionis in need of some form of assistance.In recent days, the harsh weather, which has routinely featured temperatures of minus-20 Celsius,has exhibited signs of easing. February 17, for example, was mild and sunny in the capitalDushanbe. But in discussing the condition of the country’s social and economic infrastructure, nomatter what happens the rest of the winter, grievous harm has already been done. Dushanbe andother urban centers enjoy only a few hours of electricity a day, and hydropower generators will beable to operate at no more than 40 percent capacity at least until the onset of spring.Gulomjon Bobozoda, Tajikistan’s minister for Economic Development and Trade, admitted at aFebruary 18 news conference that the chronic power shortage was bound to have a “cumulativeeffect” on the economy. He added that it was too early to provide an accurate damage assessment.Meanwhile, Matlubkhon Davlatov, a senior aide to President Imomali Rahmon, acknowledged thegovernment’s concern about a looming food crisis. “Industrial enterprises and the agrarian sector arein critical condition,” Davlatov said.The National Bank of Tajikistan has estimated the weather-related economic loss at $250 million inJanuary and February alone, a calamitous figure in a country where the annual state budget isroughly $610 million, according to CIA estimates. The national bank added that the deep freeze hasdestroyed cotton fields, which are a major source of income for the country. In addition, farmlandand private garden plots have been ravaged.Representatives of the World Food Program and the World Health Organization have cautioned thatlivestock and poultry have suffered severely during the winter, estimating that production of milk and eggs could experience a 50 percent drop-off. In addition, many Tajiks are grappling with theinitial stage of hunger, in which they are spending more than ever on food, but eating less, withmany eating only once a day.Inflation remains an alarming problem. The price of wheat in Tajikistan, for example, climbed 70percent during 2007. The damage caused to the country’s agricultural infrastructure this winter couldcause the inflation rate to rapidly accelerate in the spring and summer.Likewise, experts express concern that once all the snow that fell this winter starts to melt, the
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