BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 13-15

It’s the end of the world as we know it as disaster movie 2012 from director Rolland
Emmerich storms into theatres. 2012 will pretty much have the field to itself as it
is the only wide release of the weekend. Opening in 900 theatres, Pirate Radio,
formerly known as The Boat That Rocked, is hoping to for smooth sailing at the
box office and Precious expands to over 170 theatres after an explosive debut on
only 18 screens last weekend and may find its way into the top 5. Let’s take a look.

Director Rolland Emmerich, the king of disaster movies unleashes 2012 this
weekend starring John Cusack. The film is about a family struggling to survive the
end of the world. Emmerich’s box office record is quite impressive, especially with
disaster films. Take a look

RELEASE DATE TITLE OPENING TOTAL GROSS

WEEKEND

3/7/08 10,000 B.C. $35.9M $94.8M

5/28/04 The Day After $68.7M $186.7M

Tomorrow

6/28/00 The Patriot $22.4M $113.3M

5/20/98 Godzilla $44.0M $136.3M

7/3/96 Independence $50.2M $306.2M

Day

The best comparison for 2012 would be The Day After Tomorrow. Both films are
truly disaster movies about the end of the world and feature a good cast of familiar
faces. Tomorrow had Jake Gyllenhaal, Dennis Quaid, Sela Ward and Emmy
Rossum. 2012 stars John Cusack, Woody Harrelson (hot off of Zombieland),
Thandie Newton and Danny Glover and various others. The reviews have been
virtually identical with both films at about 45% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The
critics all agree that the special effects in 2012 are fantastic but the story is
lacking, which is exactly what they said about Tomorrow.

That being said, I don’t think 2012 will open as big as Tomorrow for a few reasons.
The Day After Tomorrow was released at the beginning of the summer which is
the best time to release a blockbuster. 2012 is launching in November, which
recently has become a good month at the box office after the success of the last
James Bond films, Twilight and a couple of the Harry Potter flicks, but still it is not
as strong a month as May. The Day After Tomorrow was just over two hours long
whereas 2012 clocks in at about two hours and forty minutes, which will cause it to
have fewer showings. Tomorrow opened in 3425 theatres and 2012 looks to open
in just over 3000. I would expect 2012 to open with about $58M this weekend.

Pirate Radio, directed by Richard Curtis (Four Weddings and a Funeral) is

based on the true story of a group of seafaring rock and roll deejays whose “pirate
radio” captivated and inspired 1960’s Britain. The film is opening in 900 theatres
and awareness of the film isn’t all that high. The film was originally titled The Boat
That Rocked which certainly doesn’t help. The stars of the film are all great actors
such as Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Bill Nighy but they don’t have any box office
power behind them. The reviews have been solid which will help Pirate Radio
crack the top ten. Look for the film to debut with about $3.5M.

Last weekend, Precious opened on just 18 screens and grossed $1.8M for a
stunning average of $104K per screen. As a result the film is expanding into 174
theatres this weekend and will march into the top ten. The film takes place in
Harlem and is about an overweight, illiterate teen whose pregnant with her second
child and is invited to enroll in an alternative school in hopes that her life can head
in a new direction. The film has been receiving major momentum thanks to Oprah
Winfrey and Tyler Perry who are executive producers of the film. Look for Precious
to collect about $5.5M this weekend, enough to land at #5.

Among holdovers, A Christmas Carol opened lower than most industry

expectations last weekend and will hope to experience a small decline in its second
frame like most Christmas themed films. Take a look at how past films have
performed in their second weekend.

YEAR TITLE OPENING SECOND

RELEASED WEEKEND WEEKEND
DROP

2002 The Santa Clause 2 $29.0M -15%

2003 Elf $31.1M -15%

2004 The Polar Express $23.3M -33%

2006 The Santa Clause 3: The $19.5M -13%

Escape Clause

2007 Fred Claus $18.5M -36%

2008 Four Christmases $31.1M -46%

I highly doubt that A Christmas Carol will have the same small decline of The
Santa Clause films or Elf. Those films were original stories and even more
important, they provided laughs for youngsters. Carol isn’t funny at all despite the
presence of star Jim Carrey. The film is a bit too scary for younger kids and again
everyone knows the story which may create a lack of interest. I believe Carol is in
for a decline of 35% and will collect another $19.5M. To see the rest of my
predictions for this box office weekend, check out the chart below.

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box
office updates throughout the weekend.

RANK TITLE BILL’S PREDICTION

1 2012 $58M

2 A Christmas Carol $19.5M -35%

3 The Men Who Stare at $6.6M -48%

Goats

4 Michael Jackson’s This $5.9M -55%

Is It

5 Precious $5.5M +206%

6 The Fourth Kind $5.4M -56%

7 Paranormal Activity $4.0M -52%

8 Couples Retreat $3.9M -37%

9 Pirate Radio $3.5M

10 The Box $3.4M -55%