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Renewable Deal Plank One Chapter 1 Renewable Energy Feasibility, page 1
THE RENEWABLE DEAL; ASPECT TWO, PLANK ONE: ENERGYCHAPTER ONERENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL:WIND, HELICAL TURBINE, SOLAR, BIOFUEL, & CO-GENERATION-A Means of Achieving National Energy and Climate Security-
by Richard Lance Christie(updated 02 Nov 09)Ivan Illich argued in his 1974 book 
 Energy and Equity
that inequality increases along with theenergy flow through a society. However, meta-analysis of available research shows nocorrelation between happiness or well-being and energy consumption per capita after basicsurvival needs are met. I submit that Illich’s thesis is true if the sources of energy arecentralized, capital-intensive, and under management by a corporate economic elite representingpassive investors who own the capital means of production. If the sources of energy flow in asociety are decentralized and under management by members of many local communities, andare inexpensive enough to be acquired and owned by individuals, small businesses, and localcommunities within municipal power authorities, then total energy flow and social and economicinequality should be decoupled.
Chapter 1: Zero-Net-Carbon Renewable Energy System FeasibilityIntroduction
Globally, an additional 20 terawatts of energy will be needed by 2050 to meet the demands of billions of people if they move from “low-impact” to “high-impact” lifestyles. Producing just 1terawatt (1 million megawatts) would require 1,000 large electric power plants of 1,000megawatts capacity each. As illustrated in detail below, a combination of improved energyefficiency and generation of power from existing, proven, renewable, non-polluting sources iscompetent to satisfy this energy demand.Vaclav Smil argues in his books that the minimum energy requirement for a civilized lifestyle isa net 2 kilowatts per person. Currently, each U.S. citizen uses a net 9 kilowatts. Two kilowattsapiece for 9 billion people would require world energy production increase 30 percent above thatachieved in 2000.The U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration reports that in 2003, total U.S. energydemand was about 98 quads, of which 84 quads were supplied from fossil fuel sources. [Onequad = 1 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) = 1.06 exajoules (1x10
18
joules)]In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, foundthat “Properly managed, efficiency measures could allow industrial nations to stabilize theirprimary energy consumption by the turn of the century.” This referred to the year 2000, not2100.
 
Renewable Deal Plank One Chapter 1 Renewable Energy Feasibility, page 2Bill McKibben writes: “Energy has become, in short order, the central environmental question,the central foreign policy question, and the central economic question.”
 Apollo’s Fire
(Island Press, 2007) was written by Representative Jay Inslee (D-WA) andBracken Hendricks with a forward by Bill Clinton. The book advocates making renewableenergy our moon shot and building a new economy around it. The authors say our real bugabooin doing it is not research, money, or special interests, but fear. Lisa Margonelli writes that, “If we want a green alternative to black gold, we’ll need to ‘greendy’ the U.S. economy -encouraging the greedy and virtuous alike to create the best fuels.” Billionaire investor GeorgeSoros has called renewable energy the “motor” of the new world economy.Worldwatch reports that as of 2008, rapid growth has turned the new renewable energyindustries into lucrative businesses, with demand outrunning supply and profits soaring. Anestimated $71 billion was invested in new renewable electric and heating capacity in 2007, upfrom $20 billion in 2002. Corporate research and development investment in clean energytechnology reached $9.8 billion in 2007. Leading corporations making major investments inrenewable energy include Applied Materials (solar PV), BP (wind and solar PV), GeneralElectric (wind), DuPont (biofuels), Goldman Sachs (wind and concentrating solar), Mitsubishi(wind), Royal Dutch Shell (wind, hydrogen, and solar PV), Sharp (solar PV), and Siemens(wind).Venture capital and private equity investment in clean energy totaled $13.2 billion in 2007, 42percent above the 2006 level and 13 times the 2001 level. By early 2007, these investments hadhelped create 253 start-up companies with names like Nanosolar, Celunol, SunPower, E3Biofuels, and Miasole, most of them working to develop and commercialize new energytechnologies. Venture capitalists typically make money by investing in technologies with smallmarket share but high growth potential. Venture capitalists like the energy sector because of itsvast size - larger than the information technology sector - and the contrast between the sluggishways of the incumbent energy companies versus the game-changing innovations being pursuedby hundreds of nimble upstart challengers.In 2008, more renewable energy than fossil and nuclear power plant capacity was added in boththe European Union and the United States, according to the renewable energy policy network REN21.The economics of renewable energy will improve as the scale of production grows. Thisoccurred in the past with televisions, personal computers, and mobile phones, which turned fromspecialty products for high-income technology pioneers into mass-market consumer devices.The Boston Consulting Group’s analysis of costs in several manufacturing industries found thateach time cumulative production of a manufactured device doubles, production costs fall by 20-30 percent per unit [Boston Consulting Group,
The Experience Curve Reviewed 
. Boston, 1972].Wind turbine production has doubled in the past three years; photovoltaic solar cell productionhas doubled in the past two years.
 
Renewable Deal Plank One Chapter 1 Renewable Energy Feasibility, page 3By 2006, the U.S. renewables industry had created 386,000 jobs, compared with 82,000 jobsexisting in the coal industry [Worldwatch,
Green Jobs
, 2008]. Worldwide, the renewablesindustry had created 2.3 million jobs by 2006 [ibid]. (See Chapter 2, Green Jobs, of Plank 7 fordetailed information on renewable energy job creation historically and prospectively.)In early 2006, rising awareness of the myriad benefits of renewable energy led a cross-section of agriculture and forestry groups to launch “25 x ‘25,” calling for 25 percent of U.S. energydemand to be met with clean, secure, renewable energy from America’s farms, ranches, andforests by the year 2025. By mid-2006, the initiative had received bipartisan endorsement from13 governors, 4 state legislatures, 32 U.S. Congressman and 19 U.S. Senators.As Worldwatch reports, “In the summer of 2008, T. Boone Pickens, a prominent Texas oiltycoon, proposed deploying massive wind farms in the Great Plains to provide at least a fifth of U.S. electricity. A couple of weeks later, former vice president Al Gore proposed shutting downall uncontrolled U.S. coal-fired power plants within a decade and replacing them mainly withrenewables. Then, in early October, Google proposed ending coal-fired generation in the UnitedStates by 2030, spending $4 trillion to replace it with efficiency and renewables, with the goal of making renewables cheaper than coal....A week later, the International Energy Agency, whichhas for decades dismissed renewables as niche sources of energy, called for these sources tosupply half of global electricity by 2050.” In 2008 U.S. billionaire Warren Buffet invested $230million in BYD, a Chinese battery manufacturer that plans to mass market a hybrid electric car.
Zero-Carbon Renewable Energy Production Capacity Assessments(Using current Best Available Technology)Section 1: 2006 National Policy Conference Forecast:Renewable Energy Can Be Fifty Percent of Total U.S. Energy Supply by 2025
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. generated more than55 Mwh of renewable energy in 2005, or about 1.5 percent of total U.S. energy production. In2007, the EIA reported non-hydro “other renewables” contributed 2 percent of total U.S. energyproduction.On November 30, 2006, 450 renewable energy policy, financial, and technology leadersattending the 5
th
national policy conference, “Renewable Energy in America: Phase II MarketForecasts and Policy Requirements” in Washington, D.C., announced their collective futuredeliverable renewable energy capacity to be 550 to 700 gigawatts by the year 2025. Thisassessment was an evaluative response to the “25x25" policy goal of producing 25 percent of U.S. energy from renewable sources by the year 2025. The industry panel projection of anachievable capacity ranging from a low of 550 gigawatts represents a 50 percent overshoot of the“25x25" policy goal by 2025 as the worst-case scenario. In other words, using off-the-shelf andlate-stage developing renewable energy technologies, the U.S. can certainly generate 25 percent,and possibly as much as 40 percent of all its energy needs from renewables by 2025 if theinvestment is made to install this generating capacity. Conference presentations may be
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