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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
16 November 2009
Issue No. 218
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CBA (CBAVZG/CBAWZX) Trading Update
– 1Q10 Update
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Investment Buy
– Leverage to growth
QBE (QBESZX) SFI Investment Buy
– Investor Update
Round Up Corner RBS Model Portfolio – Recovery Bias
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200-41.54706.4-0.9% 
-57 to -14.u.c $5.0 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday-36.04726.0-0.8% 
-57 to -21.u.c 27,801(A)
Dow Jones+73.0 10270.5 +0.7%
-5 to +108 Low
S&P 500+6.2 1093.5 +0.6%
-2 to +11 Low
Nasdaq+18.9 2167.9 +0.9%
-3 to +23 Low
FTSE+19.9 5296.4 +0.4%
-25 to +21 Low
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-2.976.4-0.8%+3.0% Gold Spot+1.3 1118.7 +1.3%
+5.1% 
Nickel (LME)-33.5727.9-0.5% -11.3%  Aluminium (LME)-0.886.8-0.1%+2.3% Copper (LME)-0.7294.9 +0.3%
+6.2% 
Zinc (LME)-0.597.4 +1.1% +7.5%Silver-0.217.4 +1.3%-2.0%  Sugar-0.122.1 +0.1%
-0.5%  
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)0.33 0.02
+14.8 c
15.86
+14.2 c
RIO (UK)33.00 0.01
+31.3 c
56.10
-1342.1 c 
BLT (BHP UK)18.50 0.01
+18.2 c
32.55
-645.7 c 
BXB (UK)-11.25 -0.03
+3.8 c
6.82
-13.8 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)1.72 0.02
+73.3 c
39.25
+23.7 c
AWC (US)0.09 0.01
+6.1 c
1.64
+0.4 c
TLS (US)0.27 0.02
+15.3 c
3.28
-2.1 c 
ANZ (US)-0.11 -0.01
+20.8 c
22.27
-21.4 c 
WBC (US)2.03 0.02
+120.7 c
25.85
+3.0 c
NAB (US)0.04 0.00
+27.4 c
29.35
+45.6 c
LGL (US)0.89 0.03
+31.9 c
3.41
+5.1 c
RMD (US)1.53 0.03
+50.5 c
5.41
+3.2 c
JHX (US)0.10 0.00
+35.7 c
7.64
+6.6 c
PDN (CAN)-0.02 0.00
+4.0 c
4.09
-3.4 c 
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
A solid close to the week, a miss from the UoM confidence number offset by upside earnigns surprise from Walt Disney and a couple ofthe larger discretionary retailers. By the bell, the Dow off highs but 73pts higher, the S&P up 0.6% and the Nasdaq finished 0.9%higher.
Media
- Walt Disney just shy of 5% higher and the Dow's best after surprising with an 18% jump in profits for the 4Q. Despite anotherpoor showing from the film division, net income for the period came in at 47cps vs consensus and the pcp of 40cps.
Retail
- Abercrombie & Fitch up nearly 11% and the S&P500's top performer after beating with quarterly numbers. Excluding one-offsprofit came in at 30cps ahead of consensus at 20cps.
Retail
- JC Penney followed the A&F lead, finishing 9% higher after it also outstripped expectations with the latest quarterly update.Despite a 78% drop in 3Q earnings(did include 19cps charge) mgmt upgraded its profit and sales outlook which appeared to be of mostinterest to investors.
Consumers
- Mcdonalds just behind Walt Disney, up 2.3%(best pts adder) and together with the aforementioned, accounting for one-third of the Dows gains after mgmt flagged further plans for store rollouts.
Eco
- University of Michigan confidence for November, 66.0 vs 71.0 expected and down on 70.6 in the month prior.
Growth
- Although taking a back sit to Media and Retail names and despite the weaker confidence number, growth plays still featuredamong the Dows best. Dupont, Cisco, Microsoft and Boeing all in the top 10 and b/w1-2% higher.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE was up 0.4% or 20pts, a 14 month high, with gains in commodity stocks and heavyweight HSBC the main contributors. TheFTSE Eurofirst 300 added 0.4%, The DAX was also up 0.4% but the CAC edged 0.1% lower.
UK Banks
- Index heavyweight HSBC climbed 1.2% on rumours it would increase its dividend. RBS rose 0.6% but Barclays fell 1.3%,Lloyds was off 0.2% and Standard Chartered ended 1.1% lower.
Euro Banks
- KBC jumped 4.5% after releasing unexpectedly strong 3Q numbers and said it is “within weeks” of reaching anagreement with the European Commission on its forced restructuring. Deutsche Bank added 0.4%, BNP rose 0.7%, SocGen also rose0.7% but Commerzbank sank 2.6%.
Eco
- The eurozone emerged from recession in the third quarter of this year but GDP growth was slower than expected. EurozoneQoQ GDP growth was 0.4% vs 0.5% expected, Germany was 0.7% vs 0.8% expected and France was 0.3% vs 0.6% expected.
 
 
Real Estate
- The sector was stronger ahead of anticipated stronger numbers from British Land on Tuesday. British Land added 2.8%,Hammerson climbed 2.3%, Land Securities also rose 2.3% and Liberty International jumped 3.9%.
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- It was a mixed night for the metals but the sector was stronger thanks to the heavyweights. BHP climbed 1%, Rio rose 1.1%,Anglo added 1.9% but Xstrata fell 1.7% and Vedanta was off 2.5%.
Energy
- A broker upgrade to the 2010 oil price to $85 helped the sector. BP rose 0.5%, BG Group added 2.1%, Tullow climbed 1.1%but Shell was off 0.5%. In Europe Total rose 0.75%, Statoil eked out a gain of 0.1% but Repsol fell 0.8%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 37pts or 0.78% to 4725. Open at 4736 with a high of 4740 with a low of 4705. Volume 22,515. Overnight the SPItraded up 28pts to 4754
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUSUSTuesdayAUSUS
Retail sales, NY Fed Empire PMI, Business Inventories
WednesdayAUS
RBA Governor Debelle speaks, Wage price index
US
PPI, Industrial production, NAHB survey
ThursdayAUS
AWOTE, RBA Bulletin, RBA Governor Debelle speaks
US
CPI, Housing starts
FridayAUSUS
Philadelphia Fed Survey
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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