Open Briefing | 1

Remote-control warfare briefing | #02

27 May 2014


Remote-control warfare is an emerging strategy that allows for conflict to be
actione at a istance! "t incorporates technologies an light-footprint eployments
that enable policyma#ers an military planners to appro$e actions that wo%l
%nli#ely be consiere if %sing con$entional means!
&hese monthly briefings are commissione by the Remote 'ontrol (ro)ect* a pro)ect
of the +etwor# for ,ocial 'hange* hoste by O-for Research .ro%p!

Special operations forces: /nite ,tates renews lease of 0)ibo%ti base important
for co%nterterrorism an rone stri#e operations!
Private military and security companies: Ma)ority of /, ,tate 0epartment f%ning
for 1fghanistan went to single pri$ate contractor with che2%ere recor!
Unmanned vehicles and autonomous weapons systems: +ew reports sp%r ebate
o$er rone research* e-port an proliferation!
Cyber warfare: /nite ,tates more cogni3ant of $%lnerability to cyber co%nter-
stri#es!
Intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance: +,1 allegely harwire bac#oor
access tools into intercepte e-porte /, ro%ters!
,pecial operations forces
United States renews lease of !"ibouti base important for counterterrorism and
drone stri#e operations
&he /nite ,tates has renewe the lease of the only official /, military base in
1frica4 'amp 5emonnier in 0)ibo%ti! 'amp 5emonnier is a /, +a$al 6-peitionary
Base locate at 0)ibo%ti7s international airport! "t is home to the 'ombine 8oint
&as# 9orce : ;orn of 1frica <'8&9-;O1= of the /, 1frica 'omman </,19R"'OM=!
6lements of the /, ,pecial Operations 'omman </,,O'OM=* incl%ing from the
8oint ,pecial Operations 'omman <8,O'=* are also base there! &he new lease
agreement was anno%nce by (resient Barac# Obama an his 0)ibo%ti co%nterpart*
"smail Omar .%elleh* in early May! &he lease fees ha$e increase from >?@ million to
>A? million <pl%s >7 million in e$elopment ai= for a 10-year lease* with the option
to e-ten the arrangement for another ecae! &he new lease agreement will also
most li#ely incl%e military technology transfer to the 0)ibo%ti arme forces!
Open Briefing | $
&he base is an important staging gro%n for rone stri#es an special operations forces <,O9= missions
against al-Baea in the 1rabian (enins%la <1B1(= militants in Cemen an al-,habaab forces in ,omalia! "t is
also essential for anti-piracy meas%res! "t is the single most important military platform for the pro)ection
of /, regional foreign policy across the ,ahel* ;orn of 1frica an +orth 1frica! &he (entagon has alreay
in$este o$er >D00 million in constr%ction pro)ects in an aro%n the base* an f%rther spening
programmes totalling >1 billion are planne for base %pgraes!
&he (entagon ha$e create a 1D0-member rapi response force at 'amp 5emonnier* which has the
capacity to respon to attac#s on /, interests in the region* s%ch as the 2012 attac# on the /, iplomatic
mission in Bengha3i* 5ibya* or threats to the /, embassy in 8%ba* ,o%th ,%an* in late 201?! &hese %nits
ten to respon to high profile incients that %nerscore a /, presence! &he new lease agreement gi$es
certainty an s%pport to /, ,O9 co%nterterrorism acti$ities an the e$elopment of regional ,O9
partnerships in /gana* 6thiopia* Mali an Eenya! "t is also an important base of operations for /,
inter$entions or s%pport in conflicts in ,o%th ,%an or the 'entral 1frican Rep%blic! 9rom a 9rench
perspecti$e* the renewal wo%l be positi$e news for any ongoing )oint /,-9rench acti$ity* as 9rance has an
a)oining base an has been b%iling %p a ,O9 presence in 0)ibo%ti since 200A to ens%re capacity for a
rapi response to conflict in 6ritrea an ,omalia! &he renewe lease can also be interprete as a sn%b to
R%ssia* who has been ma#ing o$ert%res to 0)ibo%ti see#ing sec%re laning rights an a small parcel of lan!
Fith increase /, in$estment in the 0)ibo%ti base an growing eman for ,O9 training from ,%b-,aharan
go$ernments* it is becoming harer for the /, aministration to ownplay the /, military footprint in
1frica! 9or e-ample* the international foc%s on the #inapping acti$ities of Bo#o ;aram is ma#ing it more
iffic%lt to conceal the commitment of /, +ational .%ar personnel an ,O9 in training +igerian Ranger
battalions for co%nter-ins%rgency against the militant gro%p! &he nee for eeper partnerships in 1frica is
not necessarily con%ci$e to the /, policy of ownplaying ,O9 footprints across the continent! "f the
concept of b%iling partner capacity an tr%st for /, special force eployment is accepte* then the /,
aministration may nee to acclimatise to a more $isible /, footprint in 1frica!
%ther developments
&he tenth Special %perations 'orces ()hibition and Conference *S%'(+, was held in -ordan from . to
/ 0ay1 ,O96G is a biennial conference where ,O9 from aro%n the globe isc%ss emerging sec%rity
threats* training an technology! More than A00 fig%res from D2 co%ntries an ?71 efence companies
from 41 co%ntries too# part in the conference! &he Mile 6ast ,pecial Operations 'ommaners
'onference was hel alongsie ,O96G 2014! 1 n%mber of conference attenees were p%blically 2%ote
highlighting the importance of greater ,O9 regional partnerships an the nee for increase )oint
proc%rement of sec%rity infrastr%ct%re to protect national so$ereignty!
&he US 2ouse 3rmed Services Committee wants more information and greater oversight on the
USS%C%04s &actical 3ssault 5ight %perators Suit *&35%S, effort1 /,,O'OM is proposing to allocate
>@0 million to the &15O, programme* which is collo2%ially referre to as the new H"ron ManH s%it! &he
committee an efence in%stry specialists ha$e concerns o$er potential cost blowo%ts inherent in
eli$ering the technology! &here are also concerns o$er whether the s%it wo%l ha$e broa battle scenario
applicability an %tility or whether it wo%l only be %se on a limite set of operational scenarios* s%ch as
rais!
Open Briefing | 6
3 US congressional research paper indicates that 7erman defence contractor Rheinmetall built a
819: million military combat training centre in Russia to train S%' personnel1
1
(arts of 'ongress an
the /, intelligence comm%nity are s%ggesting that engagement an efence trae between +1&O
partners an R%ssia : partic%larly 9rance* "taly an .ermany : has pro$ie R%ssian .R/ ,pet3na3 with
greatly moernise capabilities an tactical a$antage o$er /#rainian forces! /pate R%ssian military
octrines an the conc%rrent %se of cyber warfare an special operation forces ha$e been facilitate in
part by +1&O co%ntry efence contracts signe between 200? an 201?! ;a$ing note significant
e-pansion in R%ssian special forces capabilities* the /, aministration has recently anno%nce greater
bilateral collaboration between /, an (olish special forces an new training e-ercises with 6stonia
<6-ercise ,pring ,torm=* 5at$ia an 5ith%ania <6-ercise 9laming ,wor=!
3lso of note
Public Intelligence has released a restricted US 3rmy guide to biometrics in 3fghanistan1
2
&he
g%ie o%tlines the %se of biometric ata collection by special operation forces an pro$ies some
insight into the /, militaryHs strategy of ientity ominance!
US S%' are shifting their strategic posture to the Pacific an regions where al-Baea affiliates
are see#ing safe ha$en after the 1fghanistan war! &his is in line with the broaer /, military pi$ot
towars the (acific an 6ast 1siaI howe$er* /, ,O9 representati$es point o%t that /, (acific
'omman </,(1'OM= has historically ha a significant presence in the region!
&he United States are providing active training and mission support to Ira;i S%' in operations
against fighters of the al-Baea-affiliate "slamic ,tate of "ra2 an the 5e$ant!
Canadian Special %perations 'orces Command is set to receive 8<: million to proc%re marginal
terrain armo%re $ehicles for %se in the 1rctic!
&he =ritish government has agreed to #eep 1:: S3S troopers in 3fghanistan when British
troops are withrawn later this year* tho%gh they will not ta#e part irectly in co%nterterrorist
operations!
'rench company >aylon showcased wor# on a combination hang glider-dune buggy for 'rench
special forces at S%'(+ $:191 &he light all-terrain $ehicle prototype is esigne to ta#e off an
fly in powere flight an paraglie moes! &he e$elopment of the prototypes comes after 9rench
,O9 inicate the nee for a stealthier moe of air transport!
&he US !efence 3dvanced Research Pro"ects 3gency *!3RP3, are funding 5ogos
&echnologies to develop a hybrid powered motorbi#e to assist special forces to penetrate
remote areas an stealthily e-ec%te rapi rais in e-treme terrain conitions an conteste
en$ironments!
3ustralia4s Special %perations Command *S%C%0!, capabilities and priorities post
3fghanistan are under the microscope as the go$ernment has to ma#e broaer efence
proc%rement ecisions that may lea$e ,O'OM0 with a re%ce b%get!

1
http4JJwww!scrib!comJocJ21KD2@4K4J'R,-1llieMil,alesR%ssia-4-2A-12-?
2
https4JJp%blicintelligence!netJcall-afghan-biometricsJ
Open Briefing | 9
(ri$ate military an sec%rity companies
0a"ority of US State !epartment funding for 3fghanistan went to single private contractor with
che;uered record
&he /, 0epartment of ,tate spent >4 billion on 1fghan reconstr%ction pro)ects from 2002 to March 201?!
"n 1pril* a report by the ,pecial "nspector .eneral for 1fghanistan <,".1R=* an a%iting agency create by
the /, 'ongress to pro$ie o$ersight on go$ernment spening in 1fghanistan* re$eale that >2!7 billion*
or AKL* of that money went to a single pri$ate military contractor4 0yn'orp!
?
Fhile the report oes not
criticise the Mirginia-base contractor for any of its acti$ities* 0yn'orp has a history of corr%ption scanals
an a 2%estionable performance recor* partic%larly in "ra2 an 1fghanistan!
&he main p%rpose for which 0yn'orp was aware >2!7 billion in go$ernment contracts %ring that 11-
year war perio was Npolice e$elopmentH! 1ccoring to the ,".1R report* that amo%nt far e-cees that
aware to any ,tate 0epartment-contracte company! (16 .o$ernment ,er$ices "ncorporate recei$e
>DK7!@ million from the ,tate 0epartment* placing it in secon place* tho%gh this represents abo%t a
2%arter of what 0yn'orp was aware! &he thir company on the list recei$e only one-tenth of the
amo%nt 0yn'orp recei$e! &his raises 2%estions regaring the biing process thro%gh which the ,tate
0epartment awars its contracts* whether competing companies are serio%sly consiere an how
0yn'orpHs acti$ities are monitore an e$al%ate!
&he ,tate 0epartmentHs contin%e tr%st in 0yn'orp may come as a s%rprise consiering the companyHs
che2%ere recor! 1 pre$io%s 2007 ,".1R report fo%n that 0yn'orp seeme to ha$e acte
inepenently of its reporting officers at the ,tate 0epartment an ha con%cte %na%thorise acti$ities
for which it bille the /, go$ernment! "n 2011* Fi#ilea#s re$eale thro%gh a iplomatic cable that
0yn'orp contractors ha hire an %nerage 1fghan boy to entertain them! More recently* in 201?
0yn'orp was criticise for its s%bstanar wor# on an 1fghan +ational 1rmy constr%ction pro)ect in
E%n%3 pro$ince* which ene in a settlement with the /, go$ernment! 1s the /nite ,tates an
international forces prepare to rawown their military presence in 1fghanistan* 8ohn ,op#o* hea of
,".1R has plege to caref%lly e-amine how money has been spent in the co%ntry o$er the years! ;is
reports ha$e so far ientifie se$eral cases of cost o$err%ns* %n2%estione s%bpar performance* an clear
cases of corr%ption!
0yncorpHs 2%estionable performance an acco%ntability o not seem to ha$e affecte its ability to obtain
new go$ernment contracts o$er the years! "n 8%ly 200K* 9orbes fo%n that D?L of 0yn'orpHs >?!1 billion of
ann%al re$en%e was generate by the wars in "ra2 an 1fghanistan* ma#ing the company one of the big
NwinnersH of those military enea$o%rs! 0yncorpHs o$erwhelming presence in 1fghanistan raises 2%estions
regaring the re$ol$ing oor an the etrimental relationship e-isting between the /, go$ernment an
pri$ate military contractors! 0yn'orpHs boar of irectors incl%es se$eral retire generals an
commaners from the /, Marine 'orps an the /, 1rmy!


?
http4JJwww!sigar!milJpfJspecialL20pro)ectsJ,".1R-14-4K-,(!pf
Open Briefing | .
%ther developments
Rumours surrounding ?iev4s hiring of foreign private military contractors in U#raine continue1
/nconfirme meia reports* primarily from R%ssian news o%tlets* ha$e reporte that foreign pri$ate
military personnel ha allegely participate in Eie$-sponsore operations to maintain law an orer in
light of recent %nrest in the eastern /#raine town of ,la$yans#! /, pri$ate sec%rity firm .reystone* 5t*
formerly an affiliate of Blac#waterJGe ,er$ices <now 1caemi=* was reporte to ha$e abo%t 400
commanos on the gro%n! ;owe$er* the presence of foreign mercenaries in /#raine* their e-act n%mber*
manate an f%ners remain highly %ncertain* an is possibly part of R%ssian information acti$ities!
+onetheless* it is increasingly clear that R%ssian officials are %sing those reports to iscar the /#rainian
leaership by f%elling a narrati$e accoring to which the /#rainian a%thorities are hiring foreign
mercenaries to s%ppress protest mo$ements an ma#ing /#rainian ta-payers pay for it! &his ine$itably
ris#s aing to the secessionist isco%rse in /#raine!
&he Center for International 0aritime Security *CI0S(C, has produced a two-part series on the
history and prospects for private military and security companies *P0SCs, in South and Southeast
3sia1
4
&he feat%re e$al%ates the e$ol%tion of (M,'s in the region* an concl%es that reso%rce
competition in the region* as well as the contin%e presence of piracy* inicates that (M,'s are li#ely to
prosper in the ,o%th an ,o%theast 1sian mar#ets in the coming years! &he report also spec%lates on the
regional factors that ha$e been con%ci$e to the e$elopment of (M',s* incl%ing partic%lar go$ernment
policies <or lac# thereof= in aressing regional threats* as well as the e$ol%tion of (M,'sH legal stat%s an
protection! &he report preicts that (M,'s are li#ely to contin%e to play a role in the region by filling gaps
in state capacity* with smaller maritime ,o%theast 1sian co%ntries potentially calling %pon (M,'s for port
sec%rity* high-$al%e transit an marine reso%rce protection!
&he U@ Aor#ing 7roup on the use of 0ercenaries carried out its first official visit to Comoros
between / and 1< 0ay $:19 in order to assess the impact of mercenaries on human rights1 &he history
of 'omoros has been tainte by repeate co%ps an attempte co%ps that in$ol$e mercenaries! Ongoing
iss%es in 'omoros* incl%ing wea# go$ernment instit%tions an h%man rights $iolations* are eeply roote
in the co%ntryHs mercenary past! &he co%ntry has been relati$ely stable since 2001* b%t state an )%icial
instit%tions nee to be f%rther strengthene! ,pecifically* 'omoros will nee to establish safeg%ars
against mercenaries! "n the past* mercenarism has thri$e on the problem of separatism in 'omoros* partly
beca%se of scattere an inefficient state a%thority across the co%ntryHs ifferent islans! &he /+ wor#ing
gro%p has emphasise the nee to contin%e strengthening state instit%tions tho%gh training an
e$al%ation* while also loo#ing at possible ways to reg%late how (M,'s operate in the co%ntry!


4
http4JJcimsec!orgJwhither-the-pmscsJ
Open Briefing | <
3lso of note
&he =raBilian press revealed that 3cademi is providing security training to =raBil4s security
forces at the companyHs hea2%arters in +orth 'arolina ahea of the 2014 Forl '%p! &his is li#ely
to ca%se f%rther pop%lar o%trage gi$en mo%nting negati$e opinion polls an protests regaring
the sheer cost of the e$ent!
'ormer =lac#water US3 *now 3cademi, contractor @icholas Slatten has been charged with
murder by a grand "ury for his s%specte role in a 2007 Bagha shooting* which #ille 17 "ra2i
ci$ilians! &his inictment is the first of the #in* an is li#ely to f%rther tarnish 1caemiHs
rep%tation* espite restr%ct%ring an rebraning efforts!
@ew Call of !uty video game focuses on private military and security companies1 1
promotional $ieo for the new game states that in this new eition* Nthe worlHs most powerf%l
military is not a co%ntry* itHs a corporationH!
/nmanne $ehicles an a%tonomo%s weapon systems
@ew reports spur debate over drone research e)port and proliferation
1 R1+0 report on %nmanne aerial $ehicle </1M= capabilities* arms control an proliferation p%blishe in
1pril has sp%rre significant an ongoing commentary within the military* efence an intelligence policy
comm%nities abo%t /1M e-port* research an proliferation!
D
&he report 2%estions whether /1Ms are
transformati$e weapons eli$ering significant tactical a$antage an highlights the strong /, interest in
g%iing international norms aro%n /1M %se!
,hortly after the release of the R1+0 report* 9orecast "nternational p%blishe an article on f%t%re /1M
mar#ets an e$elopment!
A
1ccoring to an 1pril report from the company* the global ann%al e-port
mar#et for /1Ms is li#ely to grow from >K42 million to >2!? billion o$er the ecae from 201? to 202?! By
2017 worlwie /1M pro%ction co%l a$erage abo%t KA0 %nmanne aircraft ann%ally* with the 1$iation
"n%stry 'orporation of 'hina <1M"'= e-pecte to be the biggest /1M man%fact%rer! ;alf of the aircraft
fleets of some militaries co%l be mae of /1M systems by 20?0!
&hese reports show a #ey point of i$ergence aro%n /1M %se an proliferation! On one han* R1+0Hs
concl%sion that the c%rrent fleet of mei%m-range* non-stealth /1Ms only eli$ers tactical a$antage in
limite military conte-ts brings into 2%estion the iea of large /1M mar#et growth an e-pansion o$er the
ne-t three to fi$e years! On the other han* mar#et pro)ections an go$ernment f%ning priorities s%ggest
e-port mar#ets an proliferation are growing e-ponentially* so m%ch so that /, /1M man%fact%rers are
e-pressing increasing concern abo%t losing mar#et share an are becoming $ocal abo%t e-port restrictions
impose by the Missile &echnology 'ontrol Regime <M&'R= an "nternational &raffic in 1rms Reg%lations
<"&1R=!


D
http4JJwww!ran!orgJcontentJamJranJp%bsJresearchOreportsJRR400JRR44KJR1+0ORR44K!pf
A
http4JJwww!forecastinternational!comJnotableJ0efense+ews/1MMar#et'o%l0ecline!pf
Open Briefing | C
One commentator e-trapolate this a step f%rther! "n highlighting the limite effecti$eness of rones
against a$ance enemies with air efence systems* (eter 0Prrie s%ggeste that the /, Npi$ot to 1sia
act%ally means rones to 1fricaH!
7
&he operational conte-t present in the ;orn of 1frica* the ,ahel an
parts of the Mile 6ast enables rones to f%lfil intelligence* s%r$eillance an reconnaissance <",R= an
offensi$e nees! &he same is not tr%e of 6ast 1sia an the ,o%th 'hina ,eaI howe$er* reports s%ggest that
1sia will see the largest )%mp in /1M-relate spening* reaching >7!7 billion! /, military an a$ance
technology nees in an 6ast 1sian an (acific theatre of moernise militaries are clearly ifferent to /,
co%nterterrorism re2%irements in 1frica an the Mile 6ast! 1s s%ch* it might be more acc%rate to
spec%late that man%fact%ring growth will occ%r in 6ast 1sia an the /nite ,tates b%t that proliferation
an eployment will most li#ely be across 1frica!
/ns%rprisingly* the /, aministration is now confronte with regional sec%rity partners that are
emaning access to /, /1M technology an the ability to e$elop national capabilities to r%n ",R
acti$ities! "n the last month alone* the /, aministration an (entagon face $e-ing challenges aro%n
increasing re2%ests from co%ntries s%ch as 1lgeria* +iger an "ra2 for rone-technology transfer!
%ther developments
%n 1D-$: 3pril the United States and Eemen conducted the largest series of drone attac#s on al-
Faeda in the 3rabian Peninsula *3F3P, militants this year1 &he rone stri#es #ille o$er 40 militants
accoring to the Cemeni interior ministry* tho%gh it oes not appear that #ey 1B1( targets +asser al
F%hayshi* hea of 1B1(* an "brahim al 1siri* 1B1(Hs master bomb ma#er* were among the cas%alties!
&hree ci$ilians were #ille in the attac# an fi$e serio%sly in)%re! &he stri#es were followe %p by Cemeni
arme forces offensi$es to remo$e remaining 1B1( elements from the targete istricts! /, rone
stri#es in Cemen ha$e greatly accelerate since 2011* to the point that in 2012 the n%mber of stri#es was
comparable those in (a#istan! &he /, aministration remains preocc%pie with the threat pose by 1B1(
to /, interests* tho%gh there is only limite e$ience that the %nerlying sec%rity en$ironment* which is
res%lting in enemic po$erty an a general sec%rity $ac%%m* is being aresse!
&he US national security community are openly ;uestioning the US @avy4s preference for a less
advanced and capable drone fleet due to current budgetary pressures1 &he /, +a$y iss%e
re2%irements for the /nmanne 'arrier-5a%nche 1irborne ,%r$eillance an ,tri#e </+'51,,= program
that will pro$ie the na$y with a carrier-$ersion of non-stealthy s%r$eillance rones as oppose to the
na$yHs e-perimental G-47B aircraft* which o$er the longer term is li#ely to ha$e stealth capability* longer
range* an larger armament! &hose criticising the na$yHs ecision are li#ely to be concerne that non-
stealthy* mei%m-range* small-payloa /nmanne 'ombat 1ir Mehicles </'1Ms= will pro$ie no strategic
a$antage for /, sea power if confronte with 'hinaHs 1nti-1ccessJ1rea 0enial <12J10= capabilities*
specifically long-range ballistic an cr%ise missiles! &he na$y has efene against this criticism by arg%ing
that carrier esign will allow for capability growth an the ability to retrofit carriers* if necessary* in the
f%t%re!


7
https4JJmei%m!comJwar-is-boringJ@?A7?K@47f0
Open Briefing | /
Iran unveiled its reverse-engineered version of the US U3> the RF-1C: Sentinel on 11 0ay1 "ran was
able to re$erse engineer the ,entinel after the /1M was either compromise by "ranian cyber forces an
safely lane or simply crashe in "ran! 5ie%tenant 'ommaner of the "slamic Re$ol%tionary .%ar 'orps
.eneral ;ossein ,alami s%ggeste that "ran ecoe all the ,entinel comp%ter systems an ae some
specific optimisations* namely arme payloa* to the "ranian $ersion! 1t present there is no footage of the
rone in flight an commentators ha$e note that it may be a etaile replica rather than a f%nctional
copy consiering the %se of the e-act same laning gears an tyres as the ,entinel! ,%preme 5eaer
1yatollah 1li EhameneiHs attenance at the %n$eiling inicates that &ehran wante to achie$e ma-im%m
co$erage of a potential e-pansion of "ranian military capability! Reports inicate that "ranHs mat%ring
rone e$elopment programme is benefiting from operational %se in ,yria! 1 n%mber of "ranian rones :
the ,hahe* 13em* Moha)er* ;amaseh an ,arir : ha$e been capt%re on satellite imagery of 0amasc%s*
;ama an ,hayrat airbases!
3lso of note
&he Israel 3ir 'orce undertoo# training drills in late 3pril to prepare pilots to shoot down
potential 2eBbollah and 2amas drones1 &he rills are esigne to prepare pilots for more
a$ance rones that are faster an can stay airborne longer!
3 four-day meeting convened by states party to the Convention on Certain Conventional
Aeapons *CCA, was held in 7eneva 16-1< 0ay to discuss autonomous weapons systems1 &he
"nternational 'ommittee of the Re 'ross <"'R'= ga$e an aress to the opening of the informal
e-pert meeting an calle %pon states to s%b)ect new weapons with a%tonomo%s feat%res to a
thoro%gh legal re$iew!
&he US 3ir 'orce will be deploying two 7lobal 2aw# U3>s from 0isawa 3ir =ase in -apan1 &he
.lobal ;aw#s will be %se for s%r$eillance of +orth Eorea an 'hinese military acti$ities! &he
8apanese 1ir ,elf-0efence 9orce is e-pecte to proc%re three .lobal ;aw#s in 201D!
US Congress is mandating that 'ederal 3viation 3dministration e)perts develop safety
standards to enable integration of U3>s into the national airspace by $:1.1
3nn Rogers and -ohn 2ill have released a new boo# Unmanned: Drone Warfare and Global
Security which e-amines the concept of nano-war* whereby states bring military scale force to
bear on specific ini$i%als!
South ?orean officials have confirmed drones found near the @orth ?orean border in early
3pril are most li#ely owned by @orth ?orea1 &he ,o%th Eorean efence ministry anno%nce that
it is increasing airspace s%r$eillance an that s%rface-to-air artillery ha$e been alerte! +orth
Eorea has acc%se ,o%th Eorea an the /nite ,tates of fabricating the claims!

Open Briefing | D
'yber warfare
United States more cogniBant of vulnerability to cyber counter-stri#es
"n ,yria an /#raine* the /, aministration has been force to consier potential cyber co%nter-stri#es in
response to /, foreign policy actions* s%ch as sanctions or cyber warfare offensi$es!
1t a Mil#en "nstit%te .lobal 'onference hel in late 1pril* former 0efence ,ecretary 5eon (anetta an /,
co%nterterrorism e-pert Richar 'lar#e inicate that the /nite ,tates sho%l e-pect a R%ssian
coorinate cyber-attac# on financial instit%tions in response to escalating sanctions! R%ssia is li#ely to
possess the capacity to employ a tiere cyber-attac# campaign in$ol$ing both official cyber teams within
military an intelligence agencies an R%ssian hac#ti$ists! 1 cyber-attac# wo%l most li#ely le$erage a
broa networ# of /, comp%ters controlle thro%gh malware to create an army of botnets to attac# /,
information networ#s!
R%ssiaHs proficient an $ersatile integration of cyber operations* with <is=information campaigns*
iscipline army mo$ements an strategic %se of special forces* has sent strong warning signals to the
/nite ,tates an +1&O abo%t R%ssiaHs moernise cyber capabilities! &his ele$ate concern has occ%rre
witho%t Moscow e$en employing a thir tier of cyber capability an attac#* which in$ol$es the targeting of
critical infrastr%ct%re* p%blic an pri$ate* with the goal of isr%pting or isabling essential ser$ices!
R%ssiaHs %se of cyber meas%res in the anne-ation of 'rimea an /, 0efence ,ecretary 'h%c# ;agelHs
attempte ialog%e with Bei)ing o$er /, cyber comman both re$eal that there is a lac# of efine
#nowlege aro%n Ncyber re-linesH an international norms! &hey represent two ifferent pathways for
co%ntries to start efining the r%les of cyber engagement4 one thro%gh practical application* an the other
thro%gh iplomacy an norm setting! &he /, aministrationHs preferre approach is li#ely to be thro%gh
ialog%e* iplomacy an informal* bilateral norm setting! &he implication is that the /nite ,tates may
want to a$oi f%ll-scale cyber confrontation in /#raine* at least %ntil there is greater consens%s within
+1&O abo%t cyber NrelinesH an efensi$e an offensi$e post%res!
%ther developments
&he (uropean Union 3gency for @etwor# and Information Security *(@IS3, conducted its biannual
cyber security stress test on $/ 3pril1 O$er 200 organisations participate in the coorinate stress test*
which employe a realistic pan-6%ropean cyber incient* incl%ing istrib%te enial-of-ser$ice attac#s
<00o,=* attac#s on power gris an ma)or cyber-sec%rity breaches! ,ome e-pert participants criticise the
cyber war games as inae2%ate to prepare national go$ernments for large-scale cyber attac#s an claime
they were more abo%t ens%ring the necessary lines of comm%nication are in place rather than technical
an tactical proficiency in cyber efence!

Open Briefing | 1:
!eclassified 3ustralian !efence 'orce *3!', papers reveal that the 3!' is embracing both offensive
and defensive cyber-warfare tactics incl%ing eception an isinformation thro%gh the internet* for
f%t%re military operations! 1%straliaHs cyber capacity is most li#ely being f%rther e$elope by the
1%stralian ,ignals 0irectorate an the 0efence ,cience an &echnology Organisation! &he information
acti$ities7 octrine* which broaly o%tlines tactics an capabilities* was not isclose in the 201? efence
white paper! "t was release shortly after it was re$eale 'hinese intelligence agencies might ha$e ha
access to the 1%stralian parliamentary comp%ter networ# for %p to a year! &he recent 1%stralian ,trategic
(olicy "nstit%te report on cyber mat%rity in the 1sia (acific ran#e 1%stralia thir after /nite ,tates an
'hina in terms of cyber-warfare capacity!
@
"n 2014* the 1%stralian cyber-warfare mar#et within the military
is forecast to be worth /,>1@!7 million! By 2024* e-penit%re is forecast to total /,>??A!D million!
3t the $:19 (U--apan Summit on . 0ay -apanese Prime 0inister ShinBG 3be agreed with (U Council
members that the (U and -apan will establish the (U--apan Cyber !ialogue which aims to
collaborati$ely create an open* safe an sec%re cyberspace! On 12 May* 1be also sec%re new bilateral
efence agreements with "srael with a foc%s on cyber-sec%rity arrangements! 'ommon concerns share by
1be an "sraeli (rime Minister Ben)amin +etanyah% incl%e 'hinaHs cyber war capabilities an the
potential transfer of technology an capabilities to "ran an +orth Eorea! &here are* howe$er* li#ely to be
limitations on the relationship %e to 8apanHs hea$y epenence on Mile 6astern oil an nee to
preser$e goo relations with #ey s%ppliers! &he raft of bilateral agreements an efence tal#s coincie
with 1beHs p%sh for reform to 8apanHs constit%tion* which limits 8apanese military acti$ities to self-
efence!
3lso of note
>eriBonHs 2014 Data Breach Investiations !e"ort recorded .11 espionage incidents in $:16
with an increasing proportion of attac#s originating from 6astern 6%rope1 Of the attac#s* ?0A
res%lte in ata isclos%re! &he report highlights 'hina as the preominate so%rce of cyber-
espionage attac#s!
&he #e$ %or& 'imes carried a story on 5ulBSec hac#tivists that raises the 2%estion of whether
the 9B" irecte any cyber attac#s or ata breaches thro%gh hac#ti$ist gro%ps* incl%ing to gain
access to ,yrian go$ernment systems!
9

&he Indonesian 3rmy have signed a memorandum of understanding with a local institution
the Institut &e#nologi !el to develop a cyber-defence and warfare centre1 &he centre is to
e$elop new offensi$e an efensi$e technologies for cyber-warfare operations!


@
https4JJwww!aspi!org!a%Jp%blicationsJcyber-mat%rity-in-the-asia-pacific-region-
2014J1,("OcyberOmat%rityO2014!pf
K
http4JJwww!nytimes!comJ2014J04J24JworlJfbi-informant-is-tie-to-cyberattac#s-abroa!htmlQOrR0
Open Briefing | 11
Researchers are building tools based on the principles of artificial intelligence and logic
programming to help attribute cyber attac#s1 &he framewor#* "n'1 <"ntelligent 'yber
1ttrib%tion=* enables ecision ma#ers to %nerstan probabilistic assessments of cyber-attac#
attrib%tion! 'yber response has been hampere by long in$estigation lea times! 9or e-ample*
e-perts too# months to trace an eight-month series of 00o,* attac#s on the largest /, ban#s in
2012 an 201? to "ranian hac#ers retaliating for /, an international sanctions on "ran!
Pa#istan has introduced legislation on cyber security the first of its #ind1 &he legislation will
establish the +ational 'yber ,ec%rity 'o%ncil to e$elop policy on emerging cyber-sec%rity
threats!
3 report by cloud provider 3#amai showed that 96I of cyber-attac# traffic in the fourth
;uarter of $:16 originated from Chinese IP addresses1
10
&he report note that some hac#ers
an cyber criminals might be la%nching attac#s from compromise systems* thereby s#ewing the
res%lts! 1KL of attac#s originate in the /nite ,tates!
&he US @ational Institute of Standards and &echnology is reviewing cryptographic standards
an g%ieline e$elopment processes after allegation were mae that the +,1 were intentionally
%nermining cryptographic stanars as part of their s%r$eillance programmes! 1fter a two-month
p%blic comment perio* the Misiting 'ommittee on 1$ance &echnology <M'1&=* the primary
a$isory committee* has now beg%n its re$iew!
"ntelligence* s%r$eillance an reconnaissance
@S3 allegedly hardwired bac#door access tools into intercepted e)ported US routers
&he +,1 is allege to ha$e intercepte /, ro%ters bo%n for e-port an harwire bac#oor access tools
into them! &he allegation is re$eale in a new boo# by )o%rnalist .lenn .reenwal* an is base on a
oc%ments lea#e by +,1 contractor 6war ,nowen!
&he allegations are li#ely to ha$e significant political an commercial implications for the /nite ,tates
who has consistently raise concerns an 2%estions abo%t 'hinese companies* s%ch as ;%awei an 5eno$o*
harwiring s%r$eillance an $%lnerability meas%res into telecomm%nications technology! .reenwal
s%ggests that the concerns abo%t 'hinese companies amo%nte to a smear campaign to both protect the
/, mar#et an boost /, e-port creentials on a global scale* which in t%rn increase +,1 s%r$eillance
capacity!
1llegations ha$e also been le$elle at the +,1 claiming that they were aware of $%lnerabilities in the
Open,,5 internet cryptographic protocol %p to two years before the ;eartblee b%g was ientifie! &he
claim has triggere broaer 2%estions abo%t /, go$ernment #nowlege of cyber e-ploits* p%blic
isclos%re of ris#s an the p%rchase of N3ero ay e-ploitsH <that is pre$io%sly %n#nown $%lnerabilities=! "n
most cases* go$ernments p%rchase 3ero ay e-ploits from those who isco$er them in orer to ientify
ris# an create efensi$e patchesI howe$er* less than rigoro%s $etting of p%rchasers may mean some
pri$ate company proc%rement is for Noffensi$eH %se!

10
http4JJwww!a#amai!comJlJa#amaiJa#amai-soti-241?!pfQF&!mcOiRsotiOB41?
Open Briefing | 1$
9ormer 1ssistant ,ecretary of 0efence for ;omelan 0efence an 1mericas7 ,ec%rity 1ffairs (a%l
,toc#ton note in an essay earlier this year that go$ernment proc%rement of 3ero ay e-ploits was
creating a large grey mar#et that poses a significant ris# to /, sec%rity interests! 1 representati$e of the
Fhite ;o%se cybersec%rity coorinator ref%te that there is a booming mar#et for 3ero ay e-ploits or
that go$ernment participation in the mar#et is f%elling the proliferation of e-ploits!
%ther developments
%n 6: 3pril the US !epartment of -ustice released details of government applications to the
'oreign Intelligence Surveillance Court for authority to conduct electronic surveillance activities1
&he /, aministration file 1*ADD applications with the co%rt in 201?* own from 1*@DA the pre$io%s year!
&he co%rt i not re)ect any application* tho%gh it i moify ?4 applications for s%r$eillance!
"n late 1pril it was re$eale that telecomm%nication company Meri3on initiate a legal challenge to an +,1
re2%est for call-etail recors before the 9oreign "ntelligence ,%r$eillance 'o%rt! &he co%rt re)ecte
Meri3onHs petition an %phel the +,1 re2%est citing the 1K7K ,%preme 'o%rt case of ,mith $! Marylan*
which legal scholars s%ggest is not a preceent for +,1 s%r$eillance acti$ities! "n early May* the /, ;o%se
8%iciary 'ommittee %nanimo%sly passe the propose /,1 9reeom 1ct* which if passe by 'ongress
wo%l pre$ent the +,1 from collecting telecomm%nication metaata* b%t allow +,1 to ma#e applications
on an ini$i%al* case-by-case basis!
Russia and the United States are not seeing eye-to-eye over permissions under the &reaty on %pen
S#ies1 &he treaty allows the ?4 signatories to fly aircraft thro%gh airspace of other signatories to collect
intelligence %sing a$ance cameras an sensors! Moscow cancelle a /, flight sche%le for mi-1pril in
what some ha$e interprete as a meas%re to re%ce Festern intelligence gathering on R%ssian troop
mo$ements near /#raine an 'rimea! ;owe$er* /, military an intelligence agencies* espite protest
from the ,tate 0epartment* ha$e %rge the aministration to eny R%ssian certification of its new
s%r$eillance aircraft* the &%-214O+* an pre$ent R%ssian open-s#y a%thorise s%r$eillance!
7overnments the private sector and @7%s are developing comple) research programmes that use
Jbig data4 for conflict prediction and prevention1 1 n%mber of recent meia articles highlight how open-
so%rce ata is being %se by $ario%s instit%tions to preict conflict an anticipate crisis %sing big ata! &he
articles highlighte big ata analytic programmes* incl%ing the /, 0efence 0epartment7s "nformation
Mol%me an Melocity programme* the '"1Hs Open ,o%rce "nicators an the /+7s .lobal (%lse initiati$e!
3lso of note
&he United States is assisting @igerian authorities to locate $.: school girls #idnapped by
=o#o 2aram1 Fhile the (entagon initially inicate that rones wo%l not be %se* as any %se of
/1Ms for ",R p%rposes wo%l i$ert reso%rces away from special forces %sing /1Ms to trac#
8oseph EonyHs 5orHs Resistance 1rmy* /, 0efence ,ecretary 'h%c# ;agel later inicate that RB-
4 .lobal ;aw# rones wo%l be %se! &he British Royal 1ir 9orce has also eploye Raytheon
,entinel R1 1irborne ,tan-off Raar <1,&OR= aircraft to s%pport international search efforts!
Israel launched a synthetic aperture radar satellite %fe; 1: *%fe#K2oriBon, into orbit at the
beginning of 3pril1 &he satellite enhances "sraelHs intelligence capabilities an ability to monitor
n%clear-programme e$elopments in "ran!
Open Briefing | 16
3 2ouston based company =ehavioral Recognition Systems *=RS 5abs, have developed an
artificial intelligence *3I, based CC&> video surveillance system1 &he system* 1",ight* applies a
reason-base r%les system for $ieo analytics that s%rpasses e-isting technology %se in prison or
n%clear facilities to ientify changes in the obser$er en$ironment! &he system in %se in 'hicago
an Fashington 0' is set %p to Na%tonomo%sly b%il an e$er-changing #nowlege base of acti$ity
capt%reH!
3 US Republican has proposed the US 0issile !efence 3gency *0!3, investigate the costs
and security re;uirements of integrating &aiwanLs early warning radar with /, missile efence
an sensor systems! &he system is one of the most a$ance raars in the worl* an /, access
wo%l li#ely raw the ire of Bei)ing!
&he Israeli 3ir 'orce revealed its '-1. !ouble &ail ?nights S;uadron underta#es aerial
intelligence without leaving Israeli airspace %sing long-range cameras* enabling ",R operations
that ha$e capt%re ;e3bollah mo$ements in so%thern 5ebanon!




Commissioned by the Remote Control Project
remotecontrolpro"ect1org








Open Briefing is the worlHs first ci$il society intelligence agency!
Fe pro%ce actionable an preicti$e intelligence on efence* sec%rity an foreign policy matters! Fe tell
yo% what has happene an what is li#ely to happen ne-t! Most importantly* we tell yo% why!
Fe o this so that better informe citi3ens can more effecti$ely engage in peace an sec%rity ebates an
ci$il society organisations can ma#e the right a$ocacy choices! &ogether* we can infl%ence positi$e policy
ecisions by o%r go$ernments!
Open Briefing is a bol an ambitio%s not-for-profit social enterprise! Fe are a %ni2%e collaboration of
intelligence* military* law enforcement an go$ernment professionals from aro%n the worl!
'hallenge the stat%s 2%o! &a#e intelligence into yo%r own hans!
www1openbriefing1org