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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
18 November 2009
Issue No. 220
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CBA (CBAVZG/CBAWZX) Trading Update
– 1Q10 Update
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Investment Buy
– Leverage to growth
QBE (QBESZX) SFI Investment Buy
– Investor Update
Round Up Corner RBS Model Portfolio – Recovery Bias
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200-25.84729.4-0.5% 
-26 to -26.u.c $0.0 bn(L)
SPI - yesterday-23.04748.0-0.5% 
-28 to +49 26,019(A)
Dow Jones+30.5 10437.4 +0.3%
-45 to +31 Avg
S&P 500+1.0 1110.3 +0.1%
-7 to +1 Avg
Nasdaq+5.9 2203.8 +0.3%
-12 to +6 Avg
FTSE-36.75345.9-0.7% 
-46 to u.c Low
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot+0.2 79.1 +0.3% +0.9%Gold Spot+0.8 1140.0 +0.1%
+8.3% 
Nickel (LME)+4.5 763.9 +0.6%-9.6%  Aluminium (LME)+0.7 91.2 +0.7% +7.6%Copper (LME)-1.2308.7-0.4% 
+9.6% 
Zinc (LME)-0.8101.4-0.7%+10.4% Silver+0.0 18.4 +0.1% +5.4%Sugar-0.122.5-0.4% 
-3.5%  
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.14 -0.01
+15.0 c
16.06
+13.1 c
RIO (UK)-72.50 -0.02
+32.3 c
58.39
-1500.8 c 
BLT (BHP UK)-17.00 -0.01
+18.5 c
33.40
-710.0 c 
BXB (UK)-6.75 -0.02
+3.8 c
6.93
+4.8 c
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)0.01 0.00
+76.1 c
40.89
+39.0 c
AWC (US)0.12 0.02
+6.3 c
1.70
+1.2 c
TLS (US)-0.43 -0.03
+15.4 c
3.31
+1.3 c
ANZ (US)-0.71 -0.03
+20.4 c
21.86
-2.7 c 
WBC (US)-4.72 -0.04
+115.4 c
24.79
+8.7 c
NAB (US)-0.51 -0.02
+26.5 c
28.42
-8.4 c 
LGL (US)-0.61 -0.02
+32.7 c
3.52
+4.6 c
RMD (US)-0.26 -0.01
+50.9 c
5.47
-0.9 c 
JHX (US)-0.66 -0.02
+36.0 c
7.74
-2.5 c 
PDN (CAN)-0.03 -0.01
+4.3 c
4.40
-2.4 c 
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
The Dow in and out of positive territory all day, both volumes and conviction continue to track lower. Heading into to the bell, someresidual buying in the growth and energy names just offsetting weakness across the retail space and a disappointing IP number. TheDow up 14pts, the S&P flat and the Nasdaq 0.1% higher.
Eco
- Producer Price Index for October +0.3% vs +0.5% expected(-0.6% month prior), Ex Food&Energy a much more benign -0.6% vsconsensus at +0.1%. Industrial Production falling short at +0.1% vs +0.4%.
Growth
- Despite on balance flat to slightly disappointing economic data, yesterday's dovish commentary from Bernanke seems tohave left room for some ongoing, albeit small, buying across some of the growth names. Microsoft, HP, United, Cisco and DuPont allhanging on to small gains and together with Exxon accounting for the days gains.
Retail
- Aside from the IP miss, retailers were a key area of disappointment overnight. HomeDepot down 3% and the worst of the Dowcomponents after posting an 8.9% fall in 3Q profits, Lowe's Cos down 1.5% after cutting its FY profit forecast yesterday and Targetdown 3.2%(S&P100's worst) after flagging expectations for a drop in same store sales in Q4.
Energy
- Exxon tracking 0.7% higher and for the minute, one of the Dow top pts adder on yesterdays news that Warren Buffet hadadded to his collection.
Retail
- PacSun down 23% on nearly 20 times average daily volume after yesterdays wide than expected 3Q loss and slumping salesexpectations. Adding to woes, a handful of broker downgrades.
FX
- By no means an equities exodus, but moves in FX markets point to a flight to safety or at the very least indecision amongstinvestors. The DXY index making up half a penny and the AUD giving back 0.7c, back below 93c.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE fell 0.7% or 37pts, retreating from 14 month highs as banks and miners, thanks to US dollar strength, gave up recent gains.The FTSE Eurofirst 300 dropped 0.4%, the DAX was off 0.5% and the CAC sank 0.9%.
UK Banks
- Bearish comments from an influential analyst weighed on the sector. HSBC fell 2.1%, Barclays was off 2.8% and StandardChartered ended 1.6% lower. Part nationalised banks Lloyds and RBS however managed gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively.
Euro Banks
- Irish banks continued to weigh as 3Q results from Irish Life & Permanent, off 12.8%, showed an increase in loan losses.Allied Irish Banks slumped 6% and Bank of Ireland dropped 6.8%. Among the majors Deutsche Bank was off 0.7%, Commerzbank fell0.9%, BNP dropped 1.2% and SocGen ended 3.1% lower.
 
 
Eco
- British CPI came in just ahead of expectations. Year on Year it was 1.5% vs 1.4% up from 1.1% previously as the sharp fall intransport costs was not repeated. Month on Month it was 0.2% vs 0.1% expected.
Real Estate
- British Land fell 2.7% after reporting its 2Q results which were lower than expected. Net Asset Value climbed 3.1% to372p per share but that was lower than forecast by analysts. Hammerson was off 0.8%, Liberty International dropped 1%, Barratt fell3% and Land Securities ended down 1.6%.
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- Metal prices fell with the US dollar recovering. BHP fell 0.9%, Rio gave back 2.2%, Anglo dropped 1.6%, Xstrata was off1.7%, Vedanta fell 0.1% and Lonmin sank 3.3%.
Energy
- Crude was lower for much of the European session . BP edged 0.1% lower, Shell fell 0.6%, Tullow dropped 0.5% but BGGroup was up 0.4%. In Europe Total fell 0.6%, Statoil dropped 0.1% and Repsol ended down 0.2%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 23pts or 0.5% to 4748. Volume 26,019. Overnight the SPI traded up 28pts to 4776.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUSUSTuesdayAUSUS
Retail sales, NY Fed Empire PMI, Business Inventories
WednesdayAUS
RBA Governor Debelle speaks, Wage price index
US
PPI, Industrial production, NAHB survey
ThursdayAUS
AWOTE, RBA Bulletin, RBA Governor Debelle speaks
US
CPI, Housing starts
FridayAUSUS
Philadelphia Fed Survey
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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