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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
19 November 2009
Issue No. 221
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CBA (CBAVZG/CBAWZX) Trading Update
– 1Q10 Update
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Investment Buy
– Leverage to growth
QBE (QBESZX) SFI Investment Buy
– Investor Update
Round Up Corner RBS Model Portfolio – Recovery Bias
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200+9.6 4739.0 +0.2%
+10 to +10 $4.1 bn(L)
SPI - yesterday+6.0 4754.0 +0.1%
-3 to +49 22,638(L)
Dow Jones-11.110426.3-0.1% 
-77 to -5 Low
S&P 500-0.51109.8-0.0% 
-8 to +1 Low
Nasdaq-10.62193.1-0.5% 
-24 to -4 Low
FTSE-3.85342.1-0.1% 
-14 to +26 Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot+0.6 79.7 +0.7% +1.4%Gold Spot+3.7 1145.0 +0.3%
+8.6% 
Nickel (LME)+11.3 775.2 +1.5%-8.3%  Aluminium (LME)+0.9 92.2 +1.0% +8.7%Copper (LME)+2.3 311.0 +0.7%
+10.4% 
Zinc (LME)-0.7100.7-0.7%+9.6% Silver+0.1 18.5 +0.5% +6.2%Sugar+0.2 22.7 +0.9%
-2.6%  
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.17 -0.01
+14.8 c
15.90
-3.7 c 
RIO (UK)77.50 0.02
+33.1 c
59.63
-1297.0 c 
BLT (BHP UK)29.50 0.02
+18.8 c
33.84
-675.9 c 
BXB (UK)-7.00 -0.02
+3.8 c
6.78
+6.3 c
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)-0.26 0.00
+75.9 c
40.81
+21.1 c
AWC (US)-0.15 -0.02
+6.2 c
1.66
-2.5 c 
TLS (US)0.08 0.01
+15.5 c
3.34
+1.5 c
ANZ (US)0.28 0.01
+20.6 c
22.20
+3.7 c
WBC (US)-0.17 0.00
+115.2 c
24.79
+12.8 c
NAB (US)0.19 0.01
+26.6 c
28.66
+5.4 c
LGL (US)-0.01 0.00
+32.7 c
3.52
+0.1 c
RMD (US)-0.06 0.00
+50.9 c
5.47
-5.8 c 
JHX (US)-0.59 -0.02
+35.4 c
7.62
+2.0 c
PDN (CAN)-0.03 -0.01
+4.3 c
4.36
-4.1 c 
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
Like the day prior, another session void of any signifcant stock specific news and it what looks to be a trend forming over the pastcouple of days, stocks are falling under their own weight as liquidity continues to head in the wrong directions. With 20mins remaining,the Dow is of 36pts, the S&P 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq down 0.7%
Techs
- Heavyweight techs were a key contributor toward the days losses. Hewlett Packard nearly 2% lower, Cisco, IBM and Microsoftall giving back 0.5%-1%, a combination of profit taking and sentiment dealt a blow by the AutoDesk update.
Growth
- United Tech and 3M down 2% and 1.8% respectively and together accounting for two-thirds of the days losses. Althoughsome of the fall can be explained by both trading ex-div, on the day, a pretty clear apathy around buying growth names.
Eco
- Headline CPI for October +0.3% vs +0.2% expected, Ex Food&Energy +0.2% vs consensus at +0.1%. Housing Starts forOctober fell well shy, coming in at 529K vs 600K expected and down from 590K in the month prior. Housing Permits 552K vs 580Kexpected and down from 573K.
Techs
- AutoDesk trading 10% lower (S&P500's worst performer) after the biggest maker of engineering design software providedguidance for the fourth quarter that fell short of consensus estimates and posted a 73% decline in 3Q profit.
Financials
- BofA up nearly 4% and the standout on the Dow post a bullish assessment from hedge fund owner John Paulson. In aquarterly letter to investors Paulson argued banks have passed the current write-down cycle and have visibility fro growth in 2012.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE edged 0.1% or lower despite strength coming from commodities and Cadburys thanks to renewed bid tension. The FTSEwould have been positive but for some heavyweights going ex-div. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 0.4% but the DAX added 0.2% and theCAC was flat.
UK Banks
- A quiet night for the financials in the UK. HSBC was off 0.4% after going ex-div RBS fell 3.5%, Standard Chartereddropped 1.4% but Barclays added 1.1% despite going ex-div.
Euro Banks
- Moves by KBC to pay back state loans helped sentiment in the sector. KBC shares were suspended untail the afternoonbut managed a gain of 0.7%. Greek and Irish banks benefited from the move whilst amongst the majors Deutsche Bank rose 0.1%,BNP added 0.3%, SocGen was up 0.2% but Commerzbank fell 0.4%.
Retail
- Marks & Spencer was the standout, up 5.9%, after appointing the head of Morrison to be its new CEO. Morrison sank 4.9% onthe news whilst Tesco fell 1.7% and Sainsbury dropped 2.5% after going ex-div.
 
 
Food & Bev
- Cadbury rose 1.2% after it was rumoured that Hershey could team with Ferrero to make a counter bid or that nestle mayeven step up to the plate.
Eco
- Minutes from the BoE's latest meeting showed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was split over the latest £25bn boostto the quantitative easing program. One member wanted £40bn, one member wanted no increase but the other seven membersbacked the £25bn boost.
Ex-Div
- A few FTSE heavyweights went ex div overnight with HSBC, Barclays, Sainsbury, Cable & Wireless, Vodafone and Unileveramong them. Ex-div stocks took 12 points off the FTSE.
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- A move away from the US dollar saw the miners follow metal prices higher with gold hitting fresh highs. BHP added 1.6%, Riowas up 2.4%, Anglo rose 0.8%, Xstrata jumped 4.8%, Fresnillo soared 4.9% and Lonmin ended 3.6% higher.
Energy
- A fall in US crude stocks and weakness in the dollar saw crude head back towards $80. BP eked out a gain of 0.3%, Shelladded 0.2%, BG Group was up 0.1% and Tullow added 1.3%. In Europe Statoil rose 0.1%, Repsol was up 0.3% but Total dropped0.3%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 6pts or 0.13% to 4754. Open at 4779 with a high of 4797 and a low of 4746. Volume 25,224. The SPI traded up 8ptsto 4762 in overnight trade
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUSUSTuesdayAUSUS
Retail sales, NY Fed Empire PMI, Business Inventories
WednesdayAUS
RBA Governor Debelle speaks, Wage price index
US
PPI, Industrial production, NAHB survey
ThursdayAUS
AWOTE, RBA Bulletin, RBA Governor Debelle speaks
US
CPI, Housing starts
FridayAUSUS
Philadelphia Fed Survey
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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