AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab

Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee

AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

AP Bio Lab 7

11/13/2009 - 11/17/2009

Part 1 with Emma Horowitz

Part 2 with Erica Lee

AP Bio with Michael Santos

Part 1: “Goodness Fit” The Fun way

Background:

In order to do this lab, we, the experimenter, need to know the difference between
hypothesis and null hypothesis. The difference, with examples pertaining to this lab,
is as follows:

Hypothesis:

“Differences in measured ratios are not due to chance (but perhaps do to faulty
workmanship).”

What is the hypothesis?

The hypothesis is what the experimenter believes and is attempting to test.

Null Hypothesis:

“If the Mars Co. M&M sorters are doing their job correctly, then there should be no
difference in M&M ratios between actual store-bought bags of M&Ms and what the
Mars Co. claims are the actual ratios and any differences found are due to chance.“

What is the Null Hypothesis?

The null hypothesis is a hypothesis that is the reverse of what we actually believe.
At the end of the lab, we will either accept or reject the null hypothesis. If we
accept the null hypothesis then any differences we do see are by chance. If we
reject the Null Hypothesis, then we will know that the differences are not due to
chance but rather foul play. We will determine if this Null hypothesis is valid or
viable.

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Background Continued

Chi Square:

Chi-square is a quantitative measure used to determine whether a relationship

exists between two categorical variables.

Purpose:

• The purpose of this lab is to practice using chi square analysis with M&M
personal bags and distinguish between null hypothesis and hypothesis.

Objectives:

• The first objective is to learn how to use deviation to determine the

probability of getting a defined percent away from expected data.
• The second objective is to determine the probability that the difference
between the observed and expected values occur simply by chance.
• The third objective is to accept or reject the null hypothesis.

Procedure:

1. The experimenter should obtain a 1.69 Oz bag of regular M&Ms at his or her
own expense.
2. The experimenter separates the M&Ms into colors.
3. The experimenter records the number of M&Ms for each color in Chart 7.2,
Row 1.
4. Calculate deviation, deviation squared, and chi square as outlined in
calculations. Record in Chart 7.3.
5. The null hypothesis now should be accepted or rejected. Refer to Chart 7.4 to
decide whether to accept or reject it.

*For flow grams, refer to working lab notebook, page 78*

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Data:

Chart 7.1: Statistics from the Mars company on expected M&M color

Brown
Yellow
Red
Blue
Orange
Green

Chart 7.2: Actual occurrences of M&M Color for class (Group data on
row 1) (All data in M&Ms)

Group Color
Green Yellow Red Orange Blue Brown
1 7 6 7 18 12 4
2 9 8 3 13 14 7
3 11 5 15 13 9 2
4 17 10 8 5 11 4
5 8 4 6 8 16 12
6 8 12 8 10 9 8
7 13 5 9 13 8 8
8 13 11 8 10 7 9
9 10 8 7 16 3 9
10 19 4 12 28 20 14
11 8 4 8 14 13 8
12 12 11 8 8 12 5
13 12 7 9 11 15 2
Total 147 95 108 167 149 92

*See Calculations for calculations*

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Data Continued

Number of M&Ms recorded as a group

Number of M&Ms

Observations: Orange had the most overall, then blue, followed closely by green,
then red yellow and brown. Blue and orange had the most, as they should.
However, according to our expected data, blue should have more than orange, and
instead it was the other way around.

Analysis: We do not yet know whether the numbers were off enough for us to
accept the null hypothesis. However, the numbers that we received vary pretty
Colors
significantly from the expected. This of M&Ms
is probably a result of one group not using the
1.69 oz bag, but could also stem from bad workmanship at the factory, lack of
quality control in regards to M&M dispersal ratios or hungry students.

Data Continued

Chart 7.3 Chart regarding calculations of recorded data – Class data

Color
Green Yellow Red Orang Blue Brown Total

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

e
Observ 147 95 108 167 149 92 759
ed M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms
Expect 121 106 99 152 182 99 759
ed M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms M&Ms
(e)
Deviati 26 11 9 15 33 7 0
on (d)
Deviati 676 121 81 225 1089 49 0
on
square
d (d2)
5.59 1.14 .819 1.48 5.98 .49 0
(d2/e)

χ2 15.49
= 9
∑(d2/e)

*See Calculations for calculations*

Observations: As we go down the chart and do more equations, a tiny little

difference in the deviation can end up being a fairly sizable change by the time we
get down to (d2/e). For example, brown and green M&Ms have a difference in
deviation of 19, or about 3.2 times the value of brown, but by the time we get down
to the bottom, green is more than 11 times what brown is.

Analysis: The above fact accounts for the especially high Chi Square value.
Because a little increase in deviation produces a large (d2/e) value, the sum of all of
the (d2/e) values will be a lot higher than if we had just added the relative deviations
in the same way.

Chart 7.4: Should I accept or reject the null hypothesis?

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Accept the null hypothesis← Reject the

null →
hypothesis
Degrees Probability
of
0.90 0.50 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.01
Freedo
m
1 0.016 0.46 1.32 2.71 3.84 6.64

2 0.21 1.39 2.77 4.61 5.99 9.21

3 0.58 2.37 4.11 6.25 7.82 11.35

4 1.06 3.36 5.39 7.78 9.49 13.28

5 1.61 4.35 6.63 9.24 11.07 15.09

Degrees of freedom = number of independent pieces of information – number of

steps

= 6 M&M colors – 1 step = 5 degrees of freedom

Observations: This graph is directly out of the lab. It tells us whether we should
accept or reject our null hypothesis based on the Chi Square value.

Analysis: Our Chi Square value is 15.499 and our degrees of freedom is 5, making it
off the chart on the right-hand side, implying that we should reject the null
hypothesis.

Calculations:

Chart 7.2

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Total = sum of total for green, yellow, red, orange, blue, and brown

Total Green = 7+9+11+17+8+8+13+13+10+19+8+12+12 = 147 M&Ms

Total Yellow = 6+8+5+10+4+12+5+11+8+4+4+11+7 = 95 M&Ms

Total Red = 7+3+15+8+6+8+9+8+7+12+8+8+9 = 108 M&Ms

Total Orange = 18+13+13+5+8+10+13+10+16+28+14+8+11 = 167 M&Ms

Total Blue = 12+14+9+11+16+9+8+7+3+20+13+12+15 = 149 M&Ms

Total Brown = 4+7+2+4+12+8+8+9+9+14+8+5+2 = 92 M&Ms

Chart 7.3

Expected (e) = (% as a decimal expected for a particular color) x 759

Expected Green = .16 x 759 M&Ms = 121 M&Ms

Expected Yellow = .14 x 759 M&Ms = 106 M&Ms

Expected Red = .13 x 759 M&Ms = 99 M&Ms

Expected Orange = .20 x 759 M&Ms = 152 M&Ms

Expected Blue = .24 x 759 M&Ms = 182 M&Ms

Expected Brown = .13 x 759 M&Ms = 99 M&Ms

Calculations Continued

Deviation (d) = Observed-Expected

Deviation Green = 147-121 = 26

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

Deviation Yellow =95-106 = 11

Deviation Red =108-99 = 9

Deviation Orange =167-152 = 15

Deviation Blue =149-182 = 33

Deviation Brown =92-99 = 7

Deviation Squared (d2) = Deviation2

Deviation Squared Green = 262= 676

Deviation Squared Yellow = 112=121

Deviation Squared Red = 92=81

Deviation Squared Orange = 152=225

Deviation Squared Blue = 332=1089

Deviation Squared Brown = 72=49

Calculations Continued

D2/e = Deviation SquaredExpected

D2/e Green = 676/121 = 5.59

D2/e Yellow = 121/106 = 1.14

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

D2/e Red = 81/99 = .819

D2/e Orange = 225/152 = 1.48

D2/e Blue = 1089/182 = 5.98

D2/e Brown = 49/99 = .495

χ2= ∑(d2/e) = Sum of the(d2/e) for green, yellow, red, orange, blue, and
brown

Chi Square Total = 5.59+1.14+.819+1.48+5.63+.49 = 15.149

Chart 7.4

Degrees of freedom = number of independent pieces of information – number of

steps

Degrees of freedom = 6 M&M colors – 1 step = 5 degrees of freedom

Analysis

1. Based on our sample, should we accept or reject our null hypothesis?

a. Based on our findings and chart 7.4, we should reject the null
hypothesis, meaning that our findings conclude that the variations are
not due to chance but due to manipulation or foul play or faulty
workmanship.

Analysis Continued

2. If we reject the null hypothesis, what might be some possible explanations for
this outcome?
a. One possible explanation involves manipulation of M&M count at either
the factory or in the classroom. If kids eat some of the M&Ms, it will

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 AP Bio Lab 7: Fly Lab
Max Oltersdorf With Emma Horowitz and Erica Lee
AP Bio with Michael Santos, 4th Period

result in a higher chi square value and cause us to reject the null
hypothesis.

Error could come from the fact that on our sheet, the chart in which to record data
was vertical but on the board, the chart was horizontal. Maybe a group got confused
and put their data the wrong way. Other errors could stem from the above
mentioned snacking before recording, as well as simple arithmetic errors, rounding
error with the calculations, and significant figure errors creating data that looks
more accurate than it is.

Conclusion

The first part of lab 7 was a success, but our data was not as accurate as we would
have liked. However, that did not take away from the educational value of doing
this lab. During the course of this lab, I learned what chi analysis was and how to
use it. I also learned how to use deviation and what that was. I came to the
realization that a tiny shift in deviation can result in a huge shift in chi square. We
used chi square to determine that we should reject our null hypothesis, due to the
conclusion we reached that you chi square value was 15.499, well to the right of the
cutoff point for five degrees of freedom. This value of 15.499 determined that the
values that we saw for M&Ms were too far off to just have happened by chance and
that, according to the hypothesis and null hypothesis, either the workmanship is
sloppy or data was manipulated in the classroom (likely by snacking high school
students!). The purpose of this lab was to practice using chi square analysis to
distinguish between null hypothesis and hypothesis. Considering I did not know
what a null hypothesis was, nor did I know what chi square was, I would say I
accomplished that goal. Next time we do the experiment, I feel like we should
discuss more what chi square is beforehand as well as what the data all means. I
was a little iffy about that at the beginning. Although our data may have been a
little off, myself, as well as the class learned a lot about chi square and null
hypotheses, allowing us to broaden our knowledge and preparing us for the next
time we have to use these skills.

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