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SocGen Worst Case Debt Scenario

SocGen Worst Case Debt Scenario

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Published by pierco10

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Published by: pierco10 on Nov 19, 2009
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10/21/2011

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PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THE DOCUMENT
A  G L O BA L  V I E W F R O M  E U R O P E
 
A  G L O BA L  V I E W F R O M  E U R O P E
 
Special reportGlobal
 
Fourth quarter 2009
 
SellDollarBuyGovernment bondsCherry pickEquities and CommoditiesThis document is based on an extreme worst-casescenario and does not reflect SG
s central scenario.
Worst-case debt scenario
Protecting yourself against economic collapse
 
200520072009e2011e20012003
182326354530
Emergingeconomies
Debt/GDP (worst case)
Advancedeconomies
Debt/GDP (worstcase)
Worlddebt: x2.5in 10 years!
49%45%72%150%
Global debt in trillion dollars (Source: The Economist)
200520072009e2011e20012003
 
1823
 
2326
 
2635
 
3545
 
4530
Emergingeconomies
Debt/GDP (worst case)
Advancedeconomies
Debt/GDP (worstcase)
Worlddebt: x2.5in 10 years!
49%45%72%150%
Global debt in trillion dollars (Source: The Economist)
 
Product managerDaniel Fermon
(33) 1 42 13 58 81
daniel.fermon@sgcib.com
Global Head of Research Patrick Legland
(33) 1 42 13 97 79
patrick.legland@sgcib.com
Macro Strategy
 
Benoît Hubaud
(33) 1 42 13 62 04
benoit.hubaud@sgcib.com
Sector Research
 
Fabrice Theveneau
(33) 1 58 98 08 77
fabrice.theveneau@sgcib.com
Commodities
 
Frédéric Lasserre *
(33) 1 42 13 44 06
frederic.lasserre@sgcib.com
Global Asset Allocation Strategy
 
Alain Bokobza
(33) 1 42 13 84 38
alain.bokobza@sgcib.com
Rates & Forex Strategy
 
Vincent Chaigneau
00 44 207 676 7707
vincent.chaigneau@sgcib.com
EQUITYCREDITEQUITYCREDITEQUITYCREDITEQUITYCREDIT
 
 
 Worst Case Debt Scenario
Fourth quarter 2009
 
 Worst Case Debt Scenario
Fourth quarter 20093
 
Contents
41 Appendix: Bottom-up approach: central and bull scenarios42Central scenario Back to potential economic growth in three years 
Report completed on 13 October 2009Thanks to Benjamin Sigel and Nicolas Greilsamer for their assistance in preparing this report
 

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