What’s Riding on t
he Ontario Election Leaders Debate: 4 in
10 (38%) Indicate They’ll Make
up Their Mind How to Vote after Debate, Another 21% Could Switch Current Support
Four in 10 (41%) Locked their Vote in Before Writ was Dropped and have No Intention of Changing Their Mind
A new survey conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of CTV News and CP24
reveals that a sizeable portion of Ontarians who hadn’t picked a provincial party before the writ
was dropped are likely to do
so after Tuesday night’s Leaders debate.
The data reveal that, in total, four in 10 (38%) Ontarians will make their decision as to who they will support with their vote following the Leaders debate on Tuesday, June 3, 2014
say they’ll wait until “
right after the L
eaders debate” to make up their mind, another 14% who “will wait until the last week of the campaign” to make up their mind and a final 11% who indicated they will probably make up their mind “in the voting booth on Election Day”.
The research also shows that two thirds (62%) of Ontarians made a choice in terms of who they would vote for before the election began.
But that’s not carved in stone: while four in 10 (41%) Ontarians say they made up their mind before the election began “and they are not changing it at all” another 21% suggest that while they made up their mind before the election they might change their mind “to another political party to support” by the end of the campaign.
Nearly half (47%) of women say their vote is still in play between the Leaders debates and the time they step into the voting booth, which is significantly ahead of men (29%)
NDP (29%) and Liberal (27%) supporters are more likely than Tory backers (22%) to indicate that their ballot box decision could still come during the time between the Leaders debate and the time they cast their ballot, meaning a potential shift in support could be seen depending on the outcome of the debates and the final weeks of the campaign
While most regions similarly state th
at they’ve made up their mind before the Election
began and are firm in their choice, residents of the 416 (31%) are most likely to have had a choice in mind before the Election but are willing to shift support elsewhere
Progressive Conservative supporters (61%) are most likely to have made up their mind before the Election and are not changing their choice at all, far exceeding Liberal (41%) and NDP supporters (41%)