This document is for distribution to Canadian clients only.
Please refer to Appendix A in this report for important information. Volume 19 Highlights The S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) continues to trade in a bullish upward channel, with the index consistently making higher highs and higher lows since its July 2013 low. Additionally, the index continues to find technical support at its rising 50-day moving average (MA). We view the 14,400 to 14,500 range as a key short- term technical support level. We maintain our bullish short-term stance on the S&P/TSX, as long as the index remains above this important support zone. A break below this range would likely cause us to revisit our bullish stance.
The Canadian financials sector has traded in line with the broader market since February 2014, but we believe the sector could soon begin to outperform again. Given the strong performance in the energy sector year-to-date (YTD), and lagged performance by financials over this time, we believe there is the potential for some sector rotation into the financials, which if correct, could result in the financials breaking out on a relative basis.
The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) has made another all-time high, breaking above the psychologically important (but not technically important) 1,900 level. While calls for a market correction are picking up, the S&P 500 is showing little signs of technical weakness. The index remains in an uptrend, is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs, and continues to climb the proverbial "wall of worry."
Copper has had an impressive short-term rally, moving up 8.5% since its recent lows. Despite the strong move, copper remains in a well-defined downtrend, and is trading below its 200-day MA. With copper approaching resistance around the US$3.20/lb. level, we would expect the upside to be capped in the short term.
In this weeks report, we highlight Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ-Q), Nordstrom Inc. (JWN-N), and Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T) as attractive technical buy candidates. Chart of the Week: The Volatility (VIX) Index is trading at 2007 levels. Are investors overly complacent?
June 2, 2014 The Technical Take June 2, 2014 Page 2
Technical Commentary
S&P/TSX Composite Index
The S&P/TSX continues to trade in a bullish upward channel, with the index consistently making higher highs and higher lows since its July 2013 low. Additionally, the index continues to find technical support at its rising 50-day MA, which is a sign of technical strength. We view the 14,400 to 14,500 range as a key short-term technical support level. This range marks the convergence of the 50-day MA and lower channel line. We maintain our bullish short-term stance on the S&P/TSX, as long as the index remains above this important support zone. A break below this range would likely cause us to revisit our bullish stance. While the short and intermediate trend remains upward and bullish, we continue to believe the S&P/TSX could encounter a period of consolidation over the weak seasonal summer period. This belief is predicated on: 1) the S&P/TSX remaining technically overbought (on a weekly basis); and 2) the S&P/TSX quickly approaching its all- time highs around the 15,000 level, which we expect to provide formidable resistance. Overall, we remain bullish given the very constructive technical profile for the S&P/TSX, but believe the index is likely to encounter a period of consolidation in the coming months.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 28, 2014.
Weekly Momentum: The health care sector remains in its volatile trading pattern, with the index oscillating between top and last spot in our sector rankings over the last six weeks. The sector rebounded last week to top spot, following two preceding challenging weeks. The financials also rebounded last week to second spot in our sector rankings. The sector rallied on strong Q2/14 earnings results. The telecommunications services sector remains strong and has been near the top of our sector rankings for three consecutive weeks. Conversely, the materials sector remains under pressure and has been near the bottom of our sector ranking in four of the last six weeks.
Market Condition: With the recent gains in financials, the sector is currently overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 70.40.
Other: We have seen some technical deterioration in S&P/TSX sector profiles, with five sectors now trading below their respective 50-day MAs.
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S&P/TSX Capped Financial Services Index
The Canadian financials sector has traded in line with the broader market since February (lower panel), but we believe the sector could soon begin to outperform again. The sector remains in a short-, intermediate- and long-term price uptrend. The sector is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. Finally, we note that the sector has made a new price high (green circle), following the strong Q2/14 earnings season. The recent move higher has led to a small improvement in the sector's relative strength. Given the strong performance in the energy sector YTD, and lagged performance by financials over this time, we believe there is the potential for some rotation into the financials, which if correct, could result in the financials breaking out on a relative basis, and outperforming the broader market once again.
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S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has made another all-time high, breaking above the psychologically important (but not technically important) 1,900 level. While calls for a market correction are picking up, the S&P 500 is showing little signs of technical weakness. The index remains in a solid uptrend, is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs, and continues to climb the proverbial "wall of worry". The 50- and 100-day MAs have provided important technical support to the S&P 500 since the November 2012 lows, and as such, we view these levels as crucial supports for the index. Currently, the 50- and 100-day MAs come in at 1,872 and 1,850, respectively. Therefore, we believe the S&P 500 needs to hold above the 1,875 to 1,850 range to maintain its bullish short and intermediate uptrend. The Technical Take June 2, 2014 Page 6
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 28, 2014.
Weekly Momentum: Last week was a beta rally with the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors coming in at the top of our sector rankings. Conversely, the consumer staples, utilities and telecommunication services index underperformed, coming in at the bottom of out sector rankings. The utilities sector has shown recent weakness following a strong start to the year. The sector has been near the bottom of our sector rankings in five of the last six weeks.
Market Condition: All sectors are neutrally ranked with RSI levels between 30 and 70.
Other: Given the recent strength in U.S. equity markets, all 10 sectors are trading above their respective 50- and 200-day MAs.
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S&P 500 Information Technology Index
We remain long-term bulls on the U.S. information technology sector, and with its recent strength, believe the sector could begin to outperform the broader market following a recent soft patch. The S&P 500 information technology sector is trading in a long-term uptrend, and is above its rising 50- and 200- day MAs. The sector recently made a new price high (green circle), while its relative strength has begun to improve (lower panel). Given the sector's strong price trends and improving relative trends, we recommend investors overweight the sector within portfolios.
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Intermarket Picture
Copper
Copper has had an impressive short-term rally, moving up 8.5% since its recent lows. Despite the strong move, copper remains in well-defined downtrend, and is trading below its 200-day MA. With copper quickly approaching overhead resistance around the US$3.20/lb. level, we expect the upside to be capped in the short term. A break above its long-term downtrend would be very bullish, and likely cause us to become more constructive on base metals and miners. Gold
Gold prices are going the other way, with gold breaking down from a descending triangle (red circle). The next technical supports come in at US$1,240/oz. and US$1,180/oz. We continue to believe gold will remain range bound in the coming months. The Technical Take June 2, 2014 Page 9
Technical Trading Ideas
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ-Q) Published May 21, 2014
Mondelez International Inc. made a new price high in recent days, continuing its trend of higher highs and higher lows. MDLZ is trading in a well-defined long-term upward channel, and is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. On MDLZ's recent new price high, the stock also made a new relative high (lower panel), which we believe could signal stronger performance versus the broader market in the coming months. Given MDLZ's strong price trends, and its recent new high, we believe the stock is set to move higher in the coming months.
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Nordstrom Inc. (JWN-N) Published May 23, 2014
This week we are highlighting the technical breakout of Nordstrom Inc. JWN is trading in well-defined upward channel and is above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. The stock recently broke above short-term resistance around the $63 level, with volume on the day of the breakout 5 times its daily average. With the recent surge in share price, the stock is technically overbought in the short term. Additionally, it is trading at its upper channel line. Given these factors we would buy the stock on weakness, as we expect the long-term uptrend to continue.
NOTE*: Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average volume.
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Enerplus Corp. (ERF-T) Published May 28, 2014
We highlighted Enerplus Corp.'s attractive technical profile in our 2014 Technical Outlook report dated January 6, 2014. The stock is up 20% since then, and we believe there could be additional upside from current levels. ERF continues to trade in a well-defined upward channel and is trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs. Additionally, we note that the stock is showing strong relative strength, as it continues to outperform the broader market. Finally, the MACD indicator looks to set to register another buy signal. Given ERF's strong technical trends, we believe the stock is set to move higher and would be buyers of the stock.
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Sentiment Indicators
Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago 11.79 13.71 14.00 0.83 0.91 0.83 Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Bulls 36.46 34.50 39.69 Bulls 58.30 54.70 53.50 Bears 23.2 26.02 21.13 Bears 17.30 20.60 17.20 Bulls - Bears 13.26 8.48 18.56 41.00 34.10 36.30
VIX CBOE Put/Call Bulls - Bears -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Individual Investor Sentiment: Bulls Minus Bears -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Feb-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 May-12 Feb-13 Nov-13 Advisor Sentiment: Bulls Minus Bears Advisor sentiment continues to trend higher. 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Volatility (VIX) Index New lows in the VIX indicate investor complacency. 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio 5-Day MA
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 28, 2014. The Technical Take June 2, 2014 Page 13
Overbought/Oversold Stocks
S&P 500 Index
Most Overbought Most Oversold Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D) AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP 81.54 PETSMART INC 19.27 PEPCO HOLDINGS INC 81.23 COACH INC 22.95 SANDISK CORP 77.53 WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC 27.62 APPLE INC 76.66 TARGET CORP 30.86 INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COS INC 76.60 PEABODY ENERGY CORP 31.54 WILLIAMS COS INC 76.58 PATTERSON COS INC 32.21 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 76.53 BED BATH & BEYOND INC 32.43 CONOCOPHILLIPS 75.99 CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INC 32.81 TRAVELERS COS INC/THE 74.67 NEWMONT MINING CORP 33.06 EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC 74.48 UNITED STATES STEEL CORP 33.07 APACHE CORP 73.43 STAPLES INC 33.55 IRON MOUNTAIN INC 73.00 WAL-MART STORES INC 33.70 AON PLC 72.57 INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP 34.94 CIGNA CORP 71.78 TJX COMPANIES INC 35.72 NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP 71.37 EBAY INC 36.13
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 28, 2014.
S&P/TSX Composite Index
Most Overbought Most Oversold Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D) MANITOBA TELECOM SVCS INC 80.09 JUST ENERGY GROUP INC 15.22 BELL ALIANT INC 79.63 SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES 20.21 BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA 79.62 SILVERCORP METALS INC 24.06 EXTENDICARE INC 77.81 SILVER WHEATON CORP 25.22 AIMIA INC 76.91 IAMGOLD CORP 25.79 ONEX CORPORATION 73.50 BARRICK GOLD CORP 26.12 TORONTO-DOMINION BANK 72.10 FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP 26.23 LIGHTSTREAM RESOURCES LTD 71.67 AURICO GOLD INC 26.58 GIBSON ENERGY INC 71.31 KINROSS GOLD CORP 27.38 CAN IMPERIAL BK OF COMMERCE 71.05 GOLDCORP INC 28.25 MARTINREA INTERNATIONAL INC 69.13 RUBICON MINERALS CORP 28.32 PARKLAND FUEL CORP 69.05 COTT CORPORATION 29.58 ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 68.20 INDUSTRIAL ALLIANCE INSURANC 29.62 CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD 67.64 ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP 31.29 BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY LTD 67.52 ARGONAUT GOLD INC 31.31
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 28, 2014.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized. As at May 28, 2014.
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Appendix A Important Disclosures
General Research Disclosure The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance. This document does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax advisor. All opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including options, futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.
Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/welcome.important.disclosure.action
Company Ticker Disclosures Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ-Q N/A Nordstrom Inc. JWN-N N/A Enerplus Corp. ERF-T 2, 4, 9 1. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 2. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 3. TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC or an affiliated company expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next three months with respect to the subject company. 4. TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to the subject company. 5. A long position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research anal ysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 6. A short position in the securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 7. A long position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 8. A short position in the derivative securities of the subject company is held by the research analyst, by a member of the research analysts household, or in an account over which the research analyst has discretion or control. 9. TD Securities Inc. and/or an affiliated company is a market maker, or is associated with the specialist that makes a market, in the securities of the subject company. 10. TD Securities Inc. and/or affiliated companies own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company. 11. A partner, director or officer of TD Securities Inc. or TD Securities (USA) LLC, or a research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration. 12. Subordinate voting shares. 13. Restricted voting shares. 14. Non-voting shares. 15. Common/variable voting shares. 16. Limited voting shares.
Technical Research Disclosure The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamental research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker. The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.
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