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CNBC Fed Survey: ECB Edition, June 4, 2014

CNBC Fed Survey: ECB Edition, June 4, 2014

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Published by CNBC
These survey results represent the opinions of 30 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.

They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on May 30-June 2, 2014. Participants were not required to answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.
These survey results represent the opinions of 30 of the nation’s top money managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.

They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected on May 30-June 2, 2014. Participants were not required to answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

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Categories:Types, Presentations
Published by: CNBC on Jun 04, 2014
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

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CNBC Fed Survey: Special ECB Edition
 June 4, 2014
Page 1 of 13
 
FED SURVEY: Special ECB Edition
June 4, 2014
These survey results represent the opinions of 30
of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on May 30-June 2, 2014. Participants were not required to answer every question. Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys. This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.
1.
 
Which actions, if any, do you expect the ECB to take at its meeting on June 5? (You may select more than one response.)
Other responses:
 
Hint at QE
 
Conditional LTRO, possible end to SMP sterilisation
 
These measures still are not adequate
 
Why the need to do anything tangible when rhetoric has worked so well?
66% 55% 52% 31% 31% 14%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Signal rateswill remainlow for along timeReducerefinancingrateReducedeposit rateLong-termrefinancingoperationQuantitativeeasingOther
 
 
CNBC Fed Survey: Special ECB Edition
 June 4, 2014
Page 2 of 13
 
FED SURVEY: Special ECB Edition
June 4, 2014 Average refinancing rate:
0.11 %
 Average deposit rate: -
0.10 %
 Average:
$1.30 per euro
 
Avg. euro zone GDP:
1.11 %
Avg. euro zone inflation:
0.73 %
 2.
 
What refinancing/deposit rate do you expect the ECB to set at the June 5 meeting? 3-4.What is your forecast for euro zone GDP and inflation year-over-year percentage change (2014 vs 2013)? 5.
 
What is your year-end forecast for the euro?
 
 
CNBC Fed Survey: Special ECB Edition
 June 4, 2014
Page 3 of 13
 
FED SURVEY: Special ECB Edition
June 4, 2014 6.
 
What percent do you ascribe to each of these factors to explain the recent decline in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note?
Other:
 
Earnings uncertainty
 
Euro zone deflation or disinflation
 
Global disinflation
 
Ten-year yield is as low as it will be
 
Two major factors keeping U.S. Treasury yields low: 1) QE tailwind becomes a headwind - removing an important inflation driver 2) U.S. Treasury bonds have a high relative value compared with other sovereign debt options in a low inflationary global marketplace
 
US Treasuries look cheap compared to other developed sovereign debt
 
The narrowing of the deficit and shortfall in new Treasury  bond issuances relative to expectations
 
Federal Reserve's statements that interest rates will remain  below historically "normal" rates for some time
 
30% reduced supply of U.S. treasuries as federal deficit shrinks; 20% momentum and the voodoo of chart readers
 
Correction from oversold condition on bonds late last year and some rebalancing from stocks to bonds because of the huge stock rally the  past two years
 
The bond market is telling us that U.S. growth is going to  be very modest. The Fed and consensus are too optimistic.
 
Stronger bank purchases of U.S. Treasuries due to stiffer liquidity rules implemented at the start of the year 
26% 21% 19% 18% 9% 8%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Flight tosafetyLowerexpectationsfor U.S.growthOtherLowerexpectationsfor U.S.inflationExpectedactions bythe ECBLaggedeffects of QEby the Fed

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