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November 20, 2009 United States: Portfolio Strategy: US Weekly KickstartGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2
The charts we are watching: Focus on earnings growth
Exhibit 1:
 
Our Growth at a Reasonable Price basket <GSTHGARP> hasoutperformed the S&P 500 YTD;
as of November 19, 2009
 Exhibit 2:
 
Stocks with high EPS growth have outperformed stocks with lowEPS growth over the past three months;
as of November 19, 2009
 
98100102104106108110112114116
      D    e    c   -      0      8      J    a    n   -      0      9      F    e      b   -      0      9      M    a    r   -      0      9      A    p    r   -      0      9      M    a    y   -      0      9      J    u    n   -      0      9      J    u      l   -      0      9      A    u    g   -      0      9      S    e    p   -      0      9      O    c     t   -      0      9      N    o    v   -      0      9
GARP Basket outperformingS&P 500 outperforming
 
Performance over the last 3 Months by Quintile
012345678910High EPSGrowthLow EPSGrowth
   P  r   i  c  e  p  e  r   f  o  r  m  a  n  c  e   (   %   )
Note: S&P 500 stocks grouped by 2010 earnings growth.
 
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
Exhibit 3:
 
Consensus bottom-up earnings growth estimates and revisions forS&P 500 sectors;
as of November 19, 2009
 Exhibit 4:
 
Consensus bottom-up earnings growth estimates and revisions forUS Portfolio Strategy thematic baskets;
as of November 19, 2009
 
GROWTH (%)EPS MOMENTUM (pp)EPS1 mo3 mo09 E10 E09 E10 E09 E10 ES&P 500
14.736.22.4
1.6
3.53.1
SECTORS (related ETF)Materials (XLB)
(19.1)71.410.4
4.1
18.78.3
Consumer Disc (XLY)
83.343.98.0
4.0
11.66.2
Info Tech (XLK)
5.133.02.5
3.7
6.08.5
Energy (XLE)
(66.1)83.02.2
1.6
3.72.8
Financials (XLF)
NM172.44.6
1.3
7.02.7
Industrials (XLI)
(34.5)9.41.1
1.1
(1.2)2.1
Consumer Staples (XLP)
1.58.90.8
0.8
2.12.2
Health Care (XLV)
8.18.31.4
0.5
1.80.8
Utilities (UTH)
1.910.00.3
(0.9)
(0.0)(1.2)
Telecom Services
(9.4)4.9(0.5)
(1.5)
(7.3)(6.8)
 
GROWTH (%)EPS MOMENTUM (pp)EPS1 mo3 mo09 E10 E09 E10 E09 E10 ELow Op Leverage (GSTHOPLO)
(2.5)6.80.9
1.9
2.3(4.6)
High Op Leverage (GSTHOPHI)
(20.4)23.12.6
1.7
3.8(13.5)
GARP (GSTHGARP)
(5.8)12.91.8
1.6
4.3(7.9)
Weak Bal Sheet (GSTHWBAL)
(19.4)9.42.1
1.4
3.3(6.0)
International Sales (GSTHINTL)
(4.3)11.70.9
1.2
2.1(9.0)
Strong Bal Sheet (GSTHSBAL)
3.213.50.8
0.8
1.7(9.1)
West Europe Sales (GSTHWEUR)
(4.3)11.11.0
0.8
3.3(10.1)
Invest for Growth (GSTHINVG)
(2.6)9.80.6
0.8
1.4(7.5)
Dividend Growth (GSTHDIVG)
0.19.70.7
0.6
1.5(7.1)
BRICs Sales (GSTHBRIC)
(1.0)11.21.2
0.4
1.4(9.6)
Domestic Sales (GSTHAINT)
0.09.10.5
(0.0)
0.8(8.9)
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
 
November 20, 2009 United States: Portfolio Strategy: US Weekly KickstartGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3
S&P 500 Performance
Exhibit 5:
 
S&P 500 sector performance over the last week
as of November 19, 2009
 Exhibit 6:
 
S&P 500 price return and daily trading volume LTM
as of November 19, 2009
 
2.11.51.21.01.00.80.80.30.1(0.1)0.8
(1.0)0.01.02.03.0
FinancialsUtilitiesInformation TechS&P 500IndustrialsEnergyCons DiscretionaryTelecom ServicesConsumer StaplesHealth CareMaterials
1-week Total Return (%)
 
6507508509501,0501,1501,2501,3501,4501,5501,650
      1      9   -      N    o    v   -      0     7      1      9   -      J    a    n   -      0      8      1      9   -      M    a    r   -      0      8      1      9   -      M    a    y   -      0      8      1      9   -      J    u      l   -      0      8      1      9   -      S    e    p   -      0      8      1      9   -      N    o    v   -      0      8      1      9   -      J    a    n   -      0      9      1      9   -      M    a    r   -      0      9      1      9   -      M    a    y   -      0      9      1      9   -      J    u      l   -      0      9      1      9   -      S    e    p   -      0      9      1      9   -      N    o    v   -      0      9
   S   &   P   5   0   0   P  r   i  c  e   L  e  v  e   l
0123456789
 S h  ar  e s t  r  a d  e d   (   b i  l  l  i   on s )  
S&P 500 daily trading volume (rhs)S&P 500 daily price level (lhs)
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
Exhibit 7:
 
S&P 500 sector performance over time
as of November 19, 2009
 Exhibit 8:
 
BEST and WORST performing S&P 500 STOCKS BY SECTOR
as of November 19, 2009
 
Total Return Percentage Change (%)1-Week1-Month3-Month6-MonthYTD12-Month
Information Tech0%2%13%31%
54%
72%Materials201223
46
65Cons Discretionary111326
36
70Financials(0)(4)623
19
45Industrials111423
19
36Consumer Staples111120
16
22Health Care22820
15
28Energy1(3)1315
15
22Utilities0(3)213
4
10Telecom Services1257
1
20S&P 5001%(0)%10%22%
24%
39%
 
BEST STOCKSWORST STOCKSReturn (%)Return (%)SectorTicker1-weekYTDTicker1-weekYTD
Cons Discr 
ANF
9%77%
HAR
(6)%116%Consumer Staples
CL
526
SVU
(5)7Energy
BTU
6104
SII
(8)19Financials
RF
12(31)
LM
(7)37Health Care
MRK
721
GENZ
(7)(25)Industrials
MWW
830
JEC
(16)(24)Info Tech
CIEN
10101
ADSK
(11)22Materials
TIE
813
OI
(5)17Telecom Services
S
26110
Q
(1)10Utilities
PNW
314
STR
(4)25
S&P 500S
26%110%
JEC
(16)%(24)%
Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.
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