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REMI Model Summary

REMI Model Summary

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Published by jdash9
This sophisticated study shows that a carbon fee and dividend approach is positive for the economy, creating 2 million jobs in 10 years besides substantially cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
This sophisticated study shows that a carbon fee and dividend approach is positive for the economy, creating 2 million jobs in 10 years besides substantially cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

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Published by: jdash9 on Jun 11, 2014
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Summary of “The Economic, Climate, Fiscal, Power, and Demographic Impact of a National FeeandDi!idend Car"on Ta#$ %y &E'I and Synapse
Summary by Danny Richter, Ph.D.
("out the study)
Citizens' Climate Education Corporation (CCEC) and Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL) contracted a third party, Reional Economic !odelin, "nc. (RE!") to do a nation#$ide study on the impact o% its &ee and Diidend (&D) policy. he policy modeled is not a per%ect representation o% &D (most obiously, &D beins at *+ per ton $hereas the study bean at *+- per ton), but it is uite close, and accounts %or the impact &D's border tari%% ad/ustment $ould hae on the 0S economy. RE!" used three models to do the study1 (+) he Reional Enery Deployment System (ReEDS) built by the 2ational Rene$able Enery Laboratory and run by Synapse Enery Economics3 (4) the Carbon nalysis ool (C)3 an enhancement o% the open#source C! model and populated  by data %rom the 0S Enery "n%ormation dministration (E")3 and (5) RE!" P"6, a proprietary dynamic model o% subnational units o% the 0nited States7 economy $hose methodoloy and euations are peer#reie$ed and aailable to the public. 8utput included impacts on +9- industries, nationally and reionally %or the : ;0.S. Census< reions commonly rouped toether in a number o% %ederal data sources and in the enery mar=et %orecasts %rom the E". !odel results $ere able to estimate the e%%ects o% the policy on >DP, personal income, employment, prices, carbon dio?ide emissions, mortality due to 28? and S8? emissions, reenues, monthly diidend amount, enery eneration capacity by technoloy, enery eneration by type, inestment in po$er, population, and economic miration on both a reional and national leel. "ncome and employment %iures %or each o% +9- industry cateories considered are included. hese +9- industries encompass the entire economy. he results are all relatie to a baseline case $here there is no carbon ta? (modeled by usin the e?act same set#up, $ith a *-@ton alue %or the carbon ta?). "n other $ords, all three models $ere run t$o times. Aoth times, the set#up $as identical e?cept %or one thin1 the price o% carbon $as either *- %rom 4-+9#4-5, or $as *+- per ton in 4-+9 and increased by *+- eery year a%ter that.
*hy should we trust &E'I+
CCL hired RE!" because $e are committed to uality data %ree o% ideoloical taint that you miht et %rom some thin= tan=s. s its name suests, RE!" models reional economics. "t does this $ell. Dr. >eore reyz %ounded RE!" in +:B-, a%ter $or=in as an academic $ith 2obel Prize#$inner La$rence lein and other pioneers in the %ield o% econometric modelin. RE!"'s modelin products re$ %rom Dr. reyz's $or= on one o% the %irst reional macroeconomic models eer created1 the !assachusetts Economic Policy nalysis (!EP) model. Close lin=s to the upper echelons o% academia hae persisted throuhout RE!"'s 56 decades o% e?perience, resultin in seeral academic  publications in /ournals such as the
 American Economic Review
, the
 Review of Economics and Statistics
, and the
 Journal of Regional Science
his e?perience and e?pertise is $hy priate and public entities %rom all across the political spectrum hae entrusted RE!" to do their analyses, and paid them $ell %or that e?pertise. hese %ormer clients include, but are not limited to1 the merican >as ssociation (>), the 2uclear Enery "nstitute (2E"), the 2ational &ederation o% "ndependent Ausiness (2&"A), the 2ational Education ssociation (2E), the "nternational Arotherhood o% eamsters, Aooz llen amilton, E (%ormerly Ernst and oun), PFC (%ormerly Price Faterhouse Coopers), and "C& "nternational. Li=e CCL and CCEC, RE!" is truly nonpartisan. "n that same spirit, CCL and CCEC did not attempt to in%luence the outcome o% the report in any $ay. "n %act, $e $ere e?cited $hen $e sa$ that not all the results $ere positie %or eery reion,  because that spea=s to the interity o% the analysis. 8ur %irst priority is a liable $orld, and $e can't et there $ithout an honest and clear#eyed ie$ o% the %acts.
Study ighlights)
C84 emissions decline 55G a%ter only +- years, and 4G a%ter 4- relatie to baseline. (&iure +)
 2ational employment increases  by 4.+ million /obs a%ter +- years, and 4.B million a%ter 4- years. his is more than a +G increase in total 0S employment $e don't et $ithout a carbon ta?H (&iure 4)
+5,--- lies are saed annually a%ter +- years, $ith a cumulatie 44I,--- merican lies saed oer 4- years. (&iure 5)
*I-#*B billion increase in >DP %rom 4-4- on, $ith a cumulatie increase in national >DP due to &D o% *+.5I trillion.
Size o% monthly diidend %or a %amily o% J $ith t$o adults in 4-4 K *4BB, and in 4-5 K *5:9. nnually, this is *5,J9 per %amily o% J in 4-4 (*++4 per capita##children et  diidend).
Electricity prices pea= in 4-49, then start to decrease.
!a?imum cost#o%#liin increase by 4-5 is +.I#4.G, dependin on reion.
Real incomes increase by more than *-- per person in 4-4. his increase accounts %or cost o% liin increases.
Electricity eneration %rom coal is phased#out by 4-4.
Aiest employment ains in healthcare, retail, and other serices (e?cludin public administration). his is because people hae more money in their poc=ets to spend, and these industries are most boosted by consumer spendin.
Reional >ross Product is steady or risin in B o% : reions.
Figure -
./S/ C01 emissions
 under &D (yello$) and $ithout a carbon ta? (blue). &D reduces 0S emissions to 9:G o% +::- leels by 4-4, and to -G by 4-5.

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