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Dr. Gary J. Harloff, Editor

Dr. Gary J. Harloff, Editor

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Published by harloff
Harloff's The Intelligent Fund Investor November newsletter; Portfolio of funds, market timing, original work
Harloff's The Intelligent Fund Investor November newsletter; Portfolio of funds, market timing, original work

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Published by: harloff on Nov 23, 2009
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12/07/2009

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The Intelligent Fund Investor, page 1
A mutual fund newsletter published monthly by Harloff Inc., 26106 Tallwood Drive, N. Olmsted, Oh 44070 phone 440-871-7278, www.harloffcapital.com. Copyright © Harloff Inc. 2009, Vol. 11, Year 16
November 2009
Portfolio Performance.....................................1Market Timing: SP500, Bonds, Gold...............1Executive Summary.........................................1HVI Rank: Asset Class, Sector, World ...........2Model Portfolios.............................................2Featured Graphs.............................................2Recent PortfolioTransactions...........................3HVI Rank: Funds & Indexes .....................4-5
Contentspage
Bull is still running
Our last buy signal for both the S&P500 and NDX100was on March 20, 2009, a good call. The marketcontinues to show strength. Our HVI indicators show usthat the bull is still alive and well. For the year, theS&P500 and NDX indexes are up 23.60and 52.34%respectively. The average of our three portfolios is up55.9% YTD.Our HCM resistance and support chart of the S&P500index on page 2 illustrates that the market remains in anuptrend.Our analysis indicates that: precious metals,commodities, Latin America, Emerging markets, andtechnology are promising. Promising region/countryfunds are: Emerging Markets, US, England andGermany. These funds and indexes suggest that theEmerging Markets, as producers of commodities, arethriving to feed growth in China and India. The US dollar continues to be a sell as the US pays its debt in fiatdollars. There is a lot of rhetoric in Congress to hold theFed to a strong dollar policy, but it is Treasury’s job tohold up the dollar.Our absolute momentum (HVI) comparison for the style box on page 2 indicates that large cap beats small capstocks. We have recently become aware of institutionalstyle box analysis. We believe our style box analysisresponds faster than institutional analysis. Our sector lineup this month is gold, pharmaceutical, and commodities.We continue to have buys on S&P500, NDX, gold/ precious metals. We have a new sell on bond yields (i.e.we are long bonds); see the left column on page 1.Because the markets can turn quickly, be ready. Maythe market be with you! (November 20, 2009)
Market Timing, long term
 
gain,%
S&P500:
11/20/09 1091.38 42.01last signal(e):
buy
07/24/09 149.50
US10 yr bnd yield %:
11/20/09 3.36 -1.82last yield signal(e):
sell 
11/17/09 3.30
c:\backtest\exprtd2,exprtd3,trade,stock32,stock6
Our newsletter performance disclosure is on page 3.
 Portfolio Performance, YTD, %
Ave of three portfolios (-11.54% 2008)....... 55.89
Dynamic Frontier portf. ( -3.20% 2008)........ 53.84 No-Load Agg Gr portf. ( -0.45% 2008)........ 51.06Rydex portfolio...............(-30.97% 2008)........ 62.77S&P500 index.2009......(-38.49% 2008)........ 23.60 NDX100 index.2009.....(-41.89% 2008)..........52.34
 Ha r lo f f ’s
 
The IntelligenFund Investor 
    D  r .   G  a  r  y   J .   H  a  r   l  o   f   f ,  e   d   i   t  o  r
last signal(e):
buy
03/20/09 768.54last signal(e):
buy
03/20/09 1187.18
Gold, XAU:
11/20/09 184.28 23.26
NDX100:
11/20/09 1764.39 48.62
 
The Intelligent Fund Investor, page 2
StyleHVISector Indexes HVIWorldIndexes HVI
Lg Cap Gw, DTLGX 67Gold&Silver, XAU-I 214MS Em Mk, MGEMX 77 NASDAQ, OTC-C 44Amex Oil, XOI-I 14S&P500 61Lg Cap Vl, DTLVX 31Financial, IXF-X 9London, FTSE 50Sm Cap Gw, DTSGX -1Semicond, SOX-X 2Frankfurt, FDAC 35Sm Cap Vl, DTSVX -8Utilities, DJ-15 1US Dollar, DXY-Z -19
Table 1, HVI Rank for Asset Classes, US Sector Indexes, and World Indexes
 
Harloff’s The Intelligent Fund Investor is published monthly by Harloff Inc. It is supplied free to clients with managed accounts over $50K. Thesubscription rate is $279. per year by U.S. mail. Rates for fax, electronic, and outside of U.S. delivery are higher. Refunds are not available. Allimpersonal advice is for the sole and exclusive use of individual subscribers. This material is copyright protected. Any reproduction, except incase of brief quotations with appropriate credits, is forbidden without prior written consent of Harloff Inc. Use of this information to manageinvestments for others is forbidden. Past performance does not assure future performance. Price data purchased from Investors FastTrack. Thisinformation is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Harloff Capital Management, its employees and clients may hold positions in thesefunds. For information or comment, please contact Dr. Harloff at
26106 Tallwood Drive, N. Olmsted, Oh 44070
or phone 440-871-7278.T
he Harloff Value Index, HVI, is a proprietary forcasting index developed by Dr. Harloff. The money market value is zero. High positive numbersare desirable and negative numbers are not. The HVI is presented for a wide variety of mutual funds and market indexes for both domestic andinternational markets. With this one index, the financial markets of the world can be ranked and compared. The investment strategy employed is tostay invested in high HVI funds. In addition, we also employ dynamic asset allocation to assist us in decisions to be in equity or money market funds.The HVI is computed for about 125 mutual funds and indexes, which are ranked and sorted according to their asset allocation class. The ranking number on the left of the table on p4 and p5 indicates the fund or index position without regard to asset class. The mutual fund list, selected for analysis, isdynamic and changes with time.
3 Newsletter Portfolios:
 
These portfolios may differ from managed account portfolios.
 
Dynamic Frontier , Ticker % No-load, Aggressive, Ticker % Rydex Portfolio, Ticker %
Profunds U Pharma, PHPIX 34 ProFnds U PrecMtl, PMPIX 34 Rydex Prec Metal, RYPMX 34Rydex Long Dow, RYCVX 33 Profunds U Pharma, PHPIX 33 Rydex Velocity 100, RYVYX 33Direx Comm Bull, DXCLX 33 ProFnds Basic Mtl, BMPIX 33 Rydex Lng Dow, RYCVX 33
11-20-09 HCM Resistance & support, S&P500
65075085095010501150
12/18/2008 2/26/2009 5/7/2009 7/16/2009 9/24/2009 12/3/2009
         $
$supportresistanceHCM
 
The Intelligent Fund Investor, page 3
Table 2. Recent Newsletter Portfolio Transactions and Performance
Recent portfolio%buysellbuysellswitchfund cumulative dividend dividendtransactons portfoliodatedateNAVNAVfee,% % gain % gaindate $
Dynamic Frontier Portfolio
SMPIX3407/27/0908/24/0910.7310.620 -1.03 22.80DXQLX3307/27/0908/24/0943.3845.610 5.14 24.88DXELX3307/27/0908/24/0947.0848.560 3.14 26.18DXZLX3408/24/0909/28/0940.1344.700 11.39 31.06RYAZX3308/24/0909/28/0924.8126.760 7.86 34.46RYTNX3308/24/0909/28/0918.8420.120 6.79 37.48DXZLX3409/28/0910/26/0944.7052.190 16.76 45.31INPIX3309/28/0910/26/0972.1875.920 5.18 47.79DXELX3309/28/0910/26/0953.8958.430 8.42 51.90DXZLX3410/26/0911/20/0952.1954.520 4.46 54.21INPIX3310/26/0911/20/0975.9274.670 -1.65 53.37DXELX3310/26/0911/20/0958.4358.970 0.92 53.84
No-Load Aggressive Growth
 
Portfolio
SMPIX3407/27/0908/24/0910.7310.620 -1.03 47.96UOPIX3307/27/0908/24/0914.7615.400 4.34 50.08BMPIX3307/27/0908/24/0926.4728.970 9.44 54.76BKPIX3408/24/0909/28/09 6.87 6.980 1.60 55.60RYPIX3308/24/0909/28/0919.6820.250 2.90 57.09UMPIX3308/24/0909/28/0922.7124.940 9.82 62.18WCPIX3409/28/0910/26/092.101.670 -20.48 50.89REPIX3309/28/0910/26/0914.7413.780 -6.51 47.64UAPIX3309/28/0910/26/0912.7411.920 -6.44 44.51ENPIX3410/26/0911/20/0931.5730.650 -2.91 43.08INPIX3310/26/0911/20/0975.9274.670 -1.65 42.30PMPIX3310/26/0911/20/0930.8936.650 18.65 51.06
Rydex Portfolio
RYVYX3407/27/0908/24/0966.6069.350 4.13 47.17RYAZX3307/27/0908/24/0921.5324.350 13.10 53.53RYCVX3307/27/0908/24/0913.3314.580 9.38 58.29RYZAX3408/24/0909/28/0965.1470.860 8.78 63.01RYAZX3308/24/0909/28/0924.8126.760 7.86 67.24RYHRX3308/24/0909/28/0919.8721.520 8.30 71.82RYZAX3409/28/0910/26/0970.8669.040 -2.57 70.32RYAZX3309/28/0910/26/0926.7624.090 -9.98 64.71RYHRX3309/28/0910/26/0921.5220.620 -4.18 62.44RYVIX3410/26/0911/20/0942.7240.420 -5.38 59.47RYVYX3310/26/0911/20/0978.6179.940 1.69 60.36RYTNX3310/26/0911/20/0920.2221.140 4.55 62.77
d:\123\perfa_nl.xls
The terms in the Table 3 are defined here.
The fund objective is obj, the proprietary Harloff Value Index is HVI, the % change in HVI fromthe previous week is %chg, the net asset value is nav, the 4 and 13 week % change in price (adjusted for dividends) are 4wk and 13w respec-tively, risk is the standard deviation of the fund divided by same for S&P500, the rsk adj is proprietary, HVI and 13w are divided by risk, risk levels are low, medium or high, and b/s gives current buy or sell based on a different proprietary indicator.
Disclosure:
Money market interest not considered. The newsletter (NL) is published monthly and does not report any money manager’s actual results. NL portfolio results are not to imply, or a reader should not infer from them, anything about the editor’s investment competence or about futureinvestment results. Per Ohio Administrative Code 1301:6-3-44(A)(1), disclosures include: material market or economic conditions are portrayed monthly by indicating S&P500 and NDX100 index results with the NL portfolio results on page 1; NL results are not managed and do not reflect the deduction of any advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid; the reinvestment of dividendsand other earnings are accounted for in the NL transactions listed in Table 2 and on page 1, however the S&P500 and NDX100 indexes on page 1 do notreflect dividends and other earnings and an investor may not directly invest in these two indexes; the potential for profit has the potential for loss;individual funds, indexes, investments, and NL results all have different volatility; NL portfolio contains investments that are selected with a viewtowards capital appreciation; NL results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors mighthave had on the editor’s decision-making if the NL editor were actually managing clients’ money; it is possible that conditions, objectives, or investmentstrategies of the NL portfolio may have changed materially during the time portrayed and it is impossible to determine the effect of any such changes onthe results portrayed; any of the securities contained in, or the investment strategies followed with respect to the NL portfolios may not relate to thetype of advisory services offered by the editor, e.g. the NL may include some types of securities that the editor may no longer select for its clients;editor’s actual clients may have had materially different investments and investment results from the NL. Values in this newsletter are believed to becorrect, but are not guaranteed.

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